After a 40-goal season, Brock Boeser‘s future is much talked about in Vancouver, and for good reason. It was a long wait with two contracts negotiated before that breakthrough finally happened. On a team that needs their stars to be stars, where he fits in is an open question.
Brock Boeser’s Future Plans
Boeser is one of a few Canucks who can sign a new deal this season. Derek Forbort joins Boeser alongside the suddenly vital Kevin Lankinen and Pius Suter as potentially unrestricted free agents. Yes, the salary cap is going up next season, but not by THAT much.
The question Vancouver faces is whether or not Boeser is actually a core player for them. They want the Stanley Cup window to open soon and stay open as long as possible. Is he going to be part of that team for the next few years or not?
Boeser also needs to make a decision. In every negotiation, he’s said he wants to stay in Vancouver. Odd as it sounds, his second contract was as much a “show-me” deal as any one-year signed in the league. Risking nearly $6 million a season for three years isn’t a normal deal for a player you’re unsure of.
That showed in his third contract, with a minor bump well below his qualifying offer. Negotiations for that one were fraught with unusual tensions, given Boeser’s father’s ill health and his own injury history.
Saying a player didn’t live up to his rookie season is one thing. Blaming him for it when his father is dying is another. Yes, there is an economic reality when it comes to negotiations, but how hard do you really want to push on that?
Getting to Numbers
That Boeser would get the typical “Really Good Rookie” contract – three years, $925K, bonuses – was no surprise. While he went late in the first round in 2015, that was one heck of a first round. The Canucks didn’t regret the pick, either, watching as he scored 43 goals and 94 points in his last two years with North Dakota.
His rookie season included 29 goals, an All-Star Game appearance, and coming in second in Calder Memorial Trophy voting. He followed that up with 26 goals and 56 points in just 69 games. Yes, there were a few injuries, but Brock Boeser’s future with Vancouver was all but assured.
What made him so different was his absolutely unbelievable shot. If you could pick one player to beat the league’s best goalies while standing right in front of them, it would be Boeser. There was no need for a screen, no preferred spot like Alex Ovechkin has, he could just beat them.
A new deal seems like a no-brainer in retrospect, but it was a weird year. There were Boeser’s injuries keeping him out of more than 30 games in the previous two seasons. There were massive deals already signed to navigate around. Upcoming contracts for Hughes and Elias Pettersson.
In the end, a bonus-laden, three-year, $5.875 million-per contract was worked out. It was worked out with a massively escalating base, starting at just $700K in 2019-20 and ending with $7.5 million in 2021-22. While that’s not trade protection per se, it might as well be.
Boeser’s Future Included COVID
Well, we all know the history here. “Boeser” and “injured” go together like “Vancouver” and “forgetting snow tires exist”. He played just 57 games in 2019-20, a dozen fewer than the team as COVID killed the season. He scored just 16 goals, not bad for a pro-rated season, but not great.
The next year, he was among the Canucks to get COVID early, in his case while visiting the Ducks. The entire season was a mess, and it was arguably the best of Boeser’s career to that point. He led the team with 23 goals and 49 points in 56 games, but no one was around to see it.
If you have a great individual season, but the team collapses, it’s hard to get credit. Vancouver finished dead last in the North Division, despite Boeser’s efforts. Still, one year to go on his deal, so it was time to cash in. The team was paying him $7.5 million, and he wanted a new contract!
It didn’t quite work out that way. In 71 games (injuries, again) he only repeated his 23 goals with just 46 points. Given the qualifying offer from the Canucks would be based on his $7.5 million, not his cap hit, it was a tough negotiation.
How Much to Stay?
Again, Boeser insisted he wanted to stay. He wasn’t getting the qualifying offer of $7.5 million, that was for sure. He acknowledged that, and the team acknowledged that he was a player averaging 30 goals a season. Except they had to pro-rate the seasons, so 30 goals every 82 games.
The big question was how many games he could reliably play. Between the two sides, they negotiated his current 3-year, $6.65 million deal. No bonuses, no escalating base, and nothing unusual about it in any way.
His first season was a bit of a flop in scoring goals (18) but his total points (55) were solid. His shooting percentage was lousy and his PDO was below 98 for the first time in his career. The new deal didn’t get off to a great start.
Then last season happened. With Bo Horvat moved out, Boeser feasted on the power play. He played a full season, or close enough with 81 games. His 40 goals and 73 points were career highs. And this year has started well for him, though it’s been rough for the team.
He’s been asked about signing a new contract, and once again says he wants to stay in Vancouver. It’s understandable, given what he’s been through with the only professional team he has played for. But it’s also reasonable to expect a raise from his current deal.
Where is the middle ground between team and player this time?
One Last Time
This is the Big One. Brock Boeser’s future hangs on this one, final contract. Probably. He is a free agent when this contract expires, after all. He might try for a two-year deal THEN the Big One. It would be a gamble, but one potentially worth millions of dollars.
Boeser is going to be 28 years old this February. Star players that age know just as well as the rest of us that time is an undefeated enemy. And so do the teams they’re negotiating with. The players often want security – one last big deal – while the teams only want to pay for their best years.
Both of these are perfectly reasonable views. There’s no point in pretending your kids are guaranteed to make it into the NHL or any other pro sports league. You could be the richest person in your family for generations in either direction.
Value vs Worth
The current word is that Boeser wouldn’t mind an 8 x $8 million. Some say that’s a minimum, others a starting point in negotiations. Immediate fan response in some quarters is that it’s a lot of money for someone who has only reached 30 goals once. And it is.
But he has also hit 40 goals once, and that was last season. And what many fans miss is just how much his game has changed over the years. Boeser no longer has his lethal shot, but he does have vastly improved board play and front-of-net presence.
Don’t believe me? More than half of his 40 goals last year came within touching distance of the net. Same as the season before. He traded his outside shot for a spot on the goalies’ Most Hated lists.
Some people think saying defence and Boeser in the same sentence is anathema, but he’s actually quite good at it. He controls the puck well, retrieves it well, and consistently has one of the best Corsi ratings on the team year after year. All that and he can find spots to shoot from.
While Boeser will never be mistaken for a fast player, as 640-goal scorer Dave Andreychuk said: “Yeah, I lost a step. But I’m so slow no one noticed.” There are ways around a lack of foot speed, and Boeser knows where to be and when. Boeser’s future isn’t going to be based on quickness, just like his past wasn’t.
He is also a much better passer than he’s often given credit for. Put him out with finishers, and he can find their sticks. The majority of the assists in his career are primary ones.
The Verdict
Signs point to a player who will be useful as he ages. Is that an $8-million man? Maybe not when he’s 34 or 35, and especially not if the salary cap doesn’t increase as much as hoped. But he will only be 33 or 34 years old, not 40.
In a perfect world, he would have hit 500 games played two seasons ago, not last Thursday. In an eight-year deal, teams will want at least 500 more. That should be another 180 goals from a defensively sound, offensively gifted player.
It’s a risk worth taking.
Main Photo: Bob Frid-Imagn Images
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