Last Word on Hockey’s Puck Drop Previews are back for the 2024-25 season! As the regular season approaches, Last Word will preview each team’s current outlook and stories to watch the upcoming year. We’ll also do our best to project how things will go for each team through the campaign. Today, we’re previewing the 2024-25 Vegas Golden Knights.
Puck Drop Preview: 2024-25 Vegas Golden Knights
2023-24 Season
At the start of the season, the Golden Knights seemingly could do no wrong. Going into December, there were realistic hopes they could do what only the Detroit Red Wings have done the last 30 years and repeat as Stanley Cup champions. Then came a fog of inconsistency, along with an ever growing list of injuries, which effectively squashed those hopes. Yes, an 11-6-1 run after the Trade Deadline (and a dominant first two games in the Dallas Stars series) briefly brought those hopes back to life. At least till the 44 second mark of the third period of Game 7…
A big lesson the team can take from last season is how small a gap between a Stanley Cup and heartbreak really is. There was a tiny dip in scoring compared to that Cup winning 2022-23 season (263 GF last season, compared to 267 in 2022-23), as well as on the power play (20.2% versus 20.3% in 2022-23). Defensively, the Golden Knights allowed on average 0.22 more goals per game last season (2.96) than in 2022-23 (2.74).
2023-24 Offseason
It’s easy to look at the Golden Knights’ offseason and be…less than enthused. Losing beloved players like Jonathan Marchessault to the Nashville Predators over a single year of term, followed hours later by Chandler Stephenson to the Seattle Kraken is a good reason for this. There’s also dealing Logan Thompson to the Washington Capitals for only a couple of draft picks, though that could change down the line depending on how he develops in the Juniors. But there were bits of good news that are worth shining a light on.
There’s the acquisition of forward Alexander Holtz and goalie Akira Schmid from the New Jersey Devils back in late June. Then there were the one-year deals days later for goalie Ilya Samsonov and forward Victor Olofsson. Yes, they’re not Steven Stamkos or Jacob Markstrom. But they’re the kind of under the radar, high reward deals that championship teams are built on. Just look at Evan Rodrigues and the Florida Panthers for an example of that.
Projected Lineup
Forward Lines
Ivan Barbashev– Jack Eichel– Victor Olofsson
Pavel Dorofeyev– Tomas Hertl– Mark Stone
Brendan Brisson– William Karlsson– Alexander Holtz
Brett Howden– Nicolas Roy– Keegan Kolesar
Top Six
Even with the aforementioned high profile departures, this still remains the strongest part of the team. Jack Eichel is certain to hit the 20-30 goal range once again this season in the black and gold. Tomas Hertl should be every bit the deadly scoring threat that merited the big April trade that brought him to Vegas. One that hopefully will result in more scoring in the Playoffs than last season. And it’s only a matter of time before Pavel Dorofeyev’s anonymity around the league fades to proverbial dust.
The big question mark, outside of Hertl in the postseason, is a familiar one the past three seasons- Mark Stone. In that time, he’s missed an average of 36.5 games a season due to injury. For this team to get back to Stanley Cup-caliber, that average cannot hold up.
Bottom Six
It can be easy to overlook William Karlsson, given the star power on the top six. He would be a top-six forward himself on a lot of other teams through his consistent scoring alone. There’s Alexander Holtz who showed glimpses of top six-calibre scoring when he was still in New Jersey. Nicolas Roy has been one of the most consistent players on the entire team. Brendan Brisson is a question mark that could turn into something much more, if he can translate his brilliant AHL stats into the NHL.
An interesting question to keep in mind is someone currently signed to a PTO (Professional Tryout): Tanner Pearson. He signed with the team last month, and the chances of him supplanting any of those other forwards are pretty small. But if he beats those odds and makes it, he could prove an interesting secret weapon on the team. Especially come playoff time, given his 115 points and 147 blocks since 2019-20.
Defence Pairs
Noah Hanifin– Alex Pietrangelo
Brayden McNabb– Shea Theodore
Nicolas Hague– Zach Whitecloud
Top Pair
By any metric, this is going to be an elite D-pairing in the league this season. It’s as close to a certainty as one can get that Noah Hanifin will find himself among the top defencemen in the league. He’s posted a +48 and averaged a little over 44 points a season the last three seasons. Are there concerns that Pietrangelo’s career low last season may be a bad omen? Certainly, yeah. But given the Swiss watch-level consistency he’s posted in the league since 2016-17, there’s enough to hold out hope on. At least for now, anyway.
Second Pair
Speaking of really good defencemen coming off tough years, the likelihood is high that Shea Theodore will bounce back statistically to what we’ve seen since 2018-19. Which paired with Brayden McNabb’s defensive consistency could prove an interesting brew for the Golden Knights against the Leon Draisatls and Elias Pettersons of the world. A big worry to keep an eye on is where the contract negotiations may drift throughout the season, if they show up at all. That and whether the injury woes that’s cost Theodore a combined 62 games the past couple of seasons is the sign of bigger trouble.
Goalies
Adin Hill
Ilya Samsonov
As tough as it is to trade Logan Thompson, given the Golden Knights’ Cap woes, there was a slim to nil chance they’d have kept both him and Adin Hill. Whether Hill was the right one to keep isn’t gonna be resolved right now. Especially with the statistical similarities between the two of them the past couple of seasons. Hill’s performance since he came to the VGK though is enough to merit hope (knock on wood) he’ll be up to the task. The only worry is how the increased workload will come into play going into April and May (he’s never started more than 40 games in a season).
Enter Ilya Samsonov, the hopeful solution and main character in Toronto of one of the league’s biggest melodramas last season. The plus side here is he can gobble up a lot of minutes. He’s also had a positive history as a 1A goaltender earlier in his career with the Washington Capitals. Not to mention the fact he’s coming onto a team with a better defensive situation than he had the past couple of seasons in Toronto.
Players to Watch
Ilya Samsonov
One more point, alongside those from the previous paragraph. Before last season, the last time Samsonov had a 3.00+ GAA (2021-22). That next season in Toronto, he went 27-10-5 with a 2.33 GAA. If that repeats this season, that weight on Adin Hill’s shoulders suddenly looks much lighter. Not to mention off the weight on the team defensively. Of course, there’s the big question lingering in the minds of every Golden Knights fan: what if the Ilya Samsonov from last season wasn’t an aberration?
Victor Olofsson
The assignment before Victor Olofsson this season looks arguably as difficult as a Simone Biles gymnastics routine. He must fill the scoring shoes of someone who, in three seasons, scored more goals (100) than he has in his entire six-season career (90). All after tallying career lows in Buffalo last season. How he does with it this season will go a long way toward this team’s fortunes, good or bad. On the plus side, like Jonathan Drouin last season in Colorado, he’s gonna be in a profitable position to succeed.
Predictions
The vibe among many in the hockey world this Summer is that this season will be gloomier than any in the Golden Knights’ brief history. But given the layout of the team, it’s hard to agree with it. Even with the losses, this is still a team that can replicate what they did last season: competing for the top three in the Pacific. As for the Stanley Cup, it’s also not that different than it was four months ago. It’s going to take a handful of lucky breaks hitting all at once to make a legitimate run, especially given the depth of competition in the West. Fortunately, many of those breaks are those this team’s capable of hitting.
Main Photo: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
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