Analyzing Anaheim Ducks’ star RFA Mason McTavish‘s performance, potential, and contract outlook as the team looks at future salary cap.
As the Anaheim Ducks continue their rebuilding journey, Mason McTavish finds himself at the heart of a pivotal decision. The Anaheim Ducks star RFA’s entry-level contract is nearing its expiration, but McTavish has emerged as a cornerstone of the team’s future. Pat Verbeek and the Ducks’ front office now face the challenge of balancing the young forward’s undeniable potential with the realities of his current performance. What follows is a closer look at McTavish’s value, his role on the Ducks, and how Anaheim should approach these crucial negotiations.
McTavish’s 2024-25 Campaign
Selected third overall in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, McTavish joined the Ducks as one of the most highly regarded prospects in recent memory. As a Ducks’ first-round pick, his development has been a central focus for Anaheim’s rebuild.
Mason McTavish’s season has been defined by flashes of brilliance and the challenges of a rebuilding team. Known for his hockey IQ, grit, and versatility, McTavish has taken on significant responsibility in both offensive and defensive situations. However, as of January, his stats reflect his limited contributions.
Goals and Assists: 5 goals and 11 assists
Time on Ice (TOI): 16:25
Net Rating: -2.5
Wins Contributed: 4.5 × 0.1657 = 0.7457 wins (approximately 0.75 wins)
To contextualize his performance, a replacement-level player typically has a net rating of -7, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model. McTavish, with a net rating of -2.5, is 4.5 points above replacement level. Each net rating point is worth 0.1657 wins, translating to 0.75 wins above replacement this season. However, this represents a decline from the 2023-24 season, when McTavish ended the year with a net rating of 0 and contributed approximately 1.16 wins above replacement. This difference highlights the growing pains both McTavish and the Ducks are enduring this season.
Given that each win is valued at $3.3 million for forwards, McTavish’s performance this season is worth approximately $2.46 million. In contrast, his value at the end of last season was approximately $3.83 million, meaning it could have been more advantageous for McTavish to strike a deal before this season began.
McTavish’s Career Stats
| Season | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 2 |
| 2022-23 | 80 | 17 | 26 | 43 | -19 | 44 |
| 2023-24 | 64 | 19 | 23 | 42 | -23 | 86 |
| 2024-25 | 31 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -4 | 20 |
| Career | 184 | 43 | 61 | 104 | -43 | 152 |
The Ducks’ Dilemma: Rewarding Potential or Paying for Performance?
The case for paying McTavish above his current market value lies in his potential, pedigree, and projected growth. As a third overall pick in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft, McTavish carries the promise of becoming an elite NHL forward. Comparable contracts for players like Nick Suzuki and Matty Beniers highlight the league’s tendency to reward high draft picks with substantial deals, recognizing their value beyond current performance metrics.
Moreover, McTavish is entering his prime and is expected to thrive as the Ducks emerge from their rebuild. As Anaheim’s roster strengthens, McTavish’s numbers are likely to improve, further justifying an investment in his future. Paying for his potential now ensures the Ducks secure a foundational piece for years to come.
The Ducks are in the midst of crafting their next competitive core, with McTavish positioned as a foundational piece. Playing alongside stars like Trevor Zegras and Leo Carlsson, McTavish has embraced challenging matchups, showcasing his adaptability and leadership potential. However, his current metrics suggest Anaheim should approach contract negotiations with measured optimism.
Comparable Contracts
Nick Suzuki (Montreal Canadiens): An eight-year, $63 million deal with a $7.875 million AAV. Suzuki’s leadership role and two-way play set a benchmark for young centres.
Matty Beniers (Seattle Kraken): A seven-year, $49,999,999 contract with a $7,142,857 cap hit. Signed in August 2024, Beniers’ deal rewards his offensive upside and future potential. Beniers was also drafted one spot ahead of McTavish.
Trevor Zegras (Anaheim Ducks): A three-year, $17.25 million deal with a $5.75 million cap hit. Zegras’ shorter-term contract provides flexibility while allowing him to prove his ceiling.
The Ducks’ Path Forward
One of the most intriguing aspects of McTavish’s situation is his age and timeline for development. Even if the Ducks were to sign him to the maximum eight-year contract allowed, he would only be 29 years old at the deal’s conclusion—squarely within his prime. If Anaheim opts for a shorter-term deal of three years or less to retain his RFA status, McTavish would still have several productive years ahead. With his performance expected to improve rather than regress due to aging, Anaheim can confidently plan around McTavish as a central figure in their rebuild.
Given McTavish’s age, production, potential, and draft pedigree, Anaheim should consider a long-term deal in the $6.5-7.5 million AAV range, even if it exceeds his current market valuation. This would:
- Secure a key player through the prime years of his career.
- Reflect his current contributions while accounting for future growth.
- Preserve cap flexibility to address other needs. His cap hit would only be roughly 7.6% of the projected $92.5 million salary cap next season.
Alternatively, a bridge deal (two to three years at $5-6 million AAV) would offer the Anaheim Ducks’ star RFA an opportunity to enhance his value while giving the Ducks additional time to evaluate his ceiling.
The Final Word
Mason McTavish represents both the present challenges and future promise of the Anaheim Ducks. While his current performance metrics point to areas for growth, his potential to anchor the team’s rebuild cannot be overstated. Anaheim must balance rewarding McTavish’s potential with maintaining fiscal responsibility. Whether through a long-term deal or a bridge contract, the Ducks’ investment in McTavish will likely shape the team’s trajectory for years to come.
Main Photo: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
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