Allar returning to Penn State increases need for top pick

Quarterback pool gets even smaller

It’s no secret that the Las Vegas Raiders are looking for a quarterback this offseason. Anyone who has watched the Raiders’ offense play for a quarter this season knows the team’s biggest need is at the most important position on the field. NFL Draft analysts waste no time when it comes to listing Las Vegas’ needs, putting quarterback at the top of the list.

From now until late April, expect all of college football’s top passers to get linked to the Silver and Black. The problem is this year’s class is underwhelming and the talent pool shrunk this week with the news that Penn State’s Drew Allar is returning to school in 2025.

While Shedeur Sanders from Colorado and Cam Ward out of Miami still headline this year’s quarterback class, universally considered QB1 and QB2, those two likely aren’t making out of the top five picks during the draft. Additionally, given the importance of the position and teams’ willingness to trade up in the draft, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Sanders and Ward be the first two players off the board this spring.

[Editor’s note: This was written on 12/19 before the Raiders’ win against the Jaguars. The Raiders currently own the sixth overall pick and will likely play Spencer Rattler in New Orleans next week while the Chargers could have nothing to play for in Week 18. If Las Vegas gets up to five wins, it would be tied with New Orleans and have the tiebreaker, falling to 11th overall in the draft order.]

The good news for the Raiders is they currently own the top selection in the draft, according to Tankathon. Granted, the NFL has the New York Giants at No. 1 and Las Vegas one spot behind New York. However, either way, the organization would be able to land one of the signal-callers mentioned above.

But the Silver and Black’s next two games are winnable. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-11 and starting backup quarterback Mac Jones, and the New Orleans Saints are expected to be without Derek Carr for the rest of the season.

With one victory in the next two weeks, the Raiders would join a cluster of three-win teams where they could be picking anywhere from third to eighth overall in the draft depending on tie-breakers. With two, they fall into the eight to 10 range and would be behind QB-needy clubs in the Giants (2-12), Titans (3-11), Browns (3-11) and, potentially, the Jets (4-10).

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

When Allar was considered to be in the draft class, that wouldn’t have seemed like as big of a deal. As mentioned in a recent mailbag column, the Penn State product had built some steam with a strong Big 10 Championship performance to take command of the QB3 competition and generate some first-round buzz.

However, that’s off the table and now there’s a steep drop-off in this year’s quarterback class after Sanders and Ward.

According to NFL Mock Draft Database, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe would be next in line but Milroe’s accuracy isn’t up to NFL standards. A similar statement could be made about Texas’ Quinn Ewers, who is currently listed as the fourth quarterback via NMDD and has drawn comparisons to current backup Drew Lock. Then there’s Carson Beck from Georgia, once thought of in the same breath as Sanders and Ward before playing like a Day 3 selection this fall.

So, without a strong third quarterback option in the 2025 draft class, the Raiders’ need for a top pick increases now that Allar is out of the question. And waiting until next season would continue to delay the organization’s rebuild.

While some are eyeing Arch Manning, whose last name certainly carries some weight when it comes to quarterback play, there’s no guarantee Manning will join the 2026 class after starting for just one season in college. Sure, there are other names to keep tabs on like LaNorris Sellers, but Beck serves as a good example of how dramatic draft projections can change when the spotlight gets brighter.

In other words, relying on the “wait until next year approach” is as much of a gamble, if not more, than taking a flier on Sanders or Ward with a top draft pick this April.

There are plenty of people who may not want to hear about or see the Raiders tank over the next three games as no one wants to see their team lose, whether they are on the sidelines or watching in the stands. But, losing may be best for the franchise’s long-term plan.