It’s been a rough few weeks for the San Francisco 49ers, who have lost three straight games, including two consecutive blowout losses to the Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills, respectively.
That has dropped the 49ers to 5-7 on the season, with every game ahead of them serving as a must-win, starting with the Chicago Bears on Sunday.
The Bears, standing at 4-8 themselves, have been one of the dumpster fires of the 2024 season, losing each of their last six games, which led them to fire head coach Matt Eberflus. But, they looked much better last week in a close 23-20 loss to the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, showing fight up until the final seconds.
At the beginning of the season, this game seemed like one of the more favorable matchups for the 49ers, even with Chicago’s strong defense, but San Francisco is only a 3.5-point home favorite, with this one seeming like a toss-up, given all of the team’s injuries.
Chicago’s offense has been inconsistent for much of the season, as they throw for just 190.1 yards (27th in NFL), rush for 109 yards (23rd in NFL), and score just 20.1 points per game (23rd in NFL).
However, there’s a certain area where the Bears have excelled this season, which could give the 49ers defense problems: the red zone.
Chicago has done really well in the red zone this season, ranking fourth in the NFL by scoring touchdowns on 2/3 of their team’s drives inside the opponent’s 20-yard line this season.
On the other hand, San Francisco’s defense has struggled in the area, ranking 31st in the NFL by allowing 70.7 percent of opponent red zone drives to result in touchdowns. That has included an 11-for-11 touchdown rate over their last three games, which has resulted in multiple 30-point performances for opposing offenses in recent losses.
“We’re looking at everything,” defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen said about the team’s red zone woes. “Whatever needs to be done, we’re trying. We’ve got to ask the same thing. Same as the run. We’ve got to, same as not taking the ball away, same as third down. These situational parts of our defense have to get better. And it doesn’t matter who is in there. We’ve got to coach it better, we’ve got execute better. So, we look at every aspect of it, evaluate everything. Looking at how, looking at ourselves even more throughout what we’ve done. Are there things we need to change? Do we just need to tighten up what we’re doing? We just evaluate. Then it’s also your opponent. Does that apply to who you’re playing? It’s not good. It’s not good enough. We have to get it better.”
“We just have to finish. Sometimes we get it to a third down in the redzone too, or it gets down to the one. Well, we can’t let it. First of all, it shouldn’t get to the redzone. That’s the best way to play good redzone defense is not let it get down there. And when, like you said, nine-for-nine, five times, five-for-five, next game, four-for-four. That’s a lot of opps in the redzone. I don’t care if they started there and it’s some type of sudden change, it doesn’t matter. If we’re hitting the redzone, we’ve got to stand up, we’ve got to stop them. And it just hasn’t been good enough.”
The 49ers will absolutely need to play better in the red zone this weekend, as they’re facing off against a team that converts red zone opportunities to touchdowns at a high rate.
If they can’t get going quickly on the offensive end, this one could be problematic if their current level of play stands.