Today we compared the 49ers offense from 2023 to the Eagles offense of 2024 to see who has a better chance of taking down the Chiefs
While everybody is debating who has the better roster between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, let’s look at it from a different point of view. Which team is better equipped to take down the big bad Chiefs?
We’ll go position by position and figure it out by using numerous advanced stats to take emotion out of the picture, but we won’t ignore what our eyes tell us. We’ll do offense today and come back with the defense tomorrow.
Quarterback
Quarterback might be the one position where you throw stats out of the window because they rarely tell the whole story. Also, each quarterback has a different supporting cast, and the play-caller is impacted by pressure differently, and more than likely didn’t receive the same number of bounces as the next quarterback.
One metric we continuously reference is Sports Info Solutions’ “total points earned/saved,” depending on which side of the ball we’re discussing. In 2023, Brock Purdy earned 96 points, three points less than his combined 2022 and 2024 seasons.
There’s a reason why Fred Warner is infatuated with his quarterback and why the Niners are going to pay top dollar to Purdy — because of what Purdy did in 2023 when he had his WR1 and starting running back healthy all season; he played like a star.
Which Jalen Hurts will the Chiefs see? He earned 55 points, per SIS, which was still ten points fewer than Purdy’s “down” 2024 season. Hurts takes terrible sacks that are drive-killers.
Hurts throws a beautiful deep ball and adds plenty of value on designed quarterback runs. But I give the edge to Brock as I believe he was asked to do more in 2023 than Hurts was in 2024.
Edge: 49ers
Running back
Quarterback is objectively the most valuable position in the sport, but what Christian McCaffrey did in 2023 and Saquon Barkley did in 2024 were nothing short of MVP-worthy.
Barkley surpassed 2,000 yards on the ground and added 278 through the air to go along with 15 touchdowns. He earned 28 points, per SIS.
CMC had exactly 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns. He earned 46 total points. As impressive as Barkley’s season has been, McCaffrey racking up touchdowns and more yards through the air gives him the nod. Barkley had 40 more touches, or two more games worth than McCaffrey, so the volume is better. McCaffrey was a bigger threat on a play-by-play basis, as difficult as that may be for Philly fans to stomach.
Edge: 49ers
Wide receiver
The ridicule that Brandon Aiyuk received pre-injury this season from fans was embarrassing. For somebody who wasn’t getting open and didn’t deserve a massive extension, the 49ers passing game circled the drain the second Aiyuk left the field.
We’ll use the top three pass catchers from each team. SIS had the trio of Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, earning 120 points in 2023. Meanwhile, Dallas Goedert, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith came up short by more than half the points at 56.
Hopefully, this helps put into perspective how exceptionally dominant the 49ers were at the skill positions in 2023. Their video-game-like numbers were not sustainable.
The Eagles are an above-average offense (4.8 percent DVOA) with a running game that relies on explosive plays and an inconsistent passing game. Their offensive line, which we’ll get to in a moment, is the reason they are still playing.
The 49ers were historic offensively in 2023. Their DVOA was 31.8 percent, 11 percent better than the second-placed Miami Dolphins in 2023, and more than 20 percentage points better than the Niners’ offense this season. McCaffrey would turn 12-yard gains into 30 and 40-yarders. Aiyuk was good for an explosive play a game, and Deebo and Kittle were right behind them.
The 49ers offense was an illusion in 2023. A fantasy that we should not expect to be repeated.
Edge: 49ers
Offensive line
On average, the Eagles’ offensive line gave Hurts 2.84 seconds to throw this past season before he was pressured. Compare that to Purdy’s 2.67 in 2023.
Lane Johnson was better this season than Trent Williams was in 2023, which is saying something. Jordan Mailata was a first-team All-Pro. His blown-block percentage was also lower than Williams’s in 2023.
The Eagles used a second-round pick in 2022 on Cam Jurgens, and he rewarded them with an excellent season of clean play at center. Philly found a way to make Mekhi Becton, a former 11th overall pick viewed as a bust, into a quality starter at guard.
Statistically, Landon Dickerson, another second-rounder, was better than everybody. His blown-block percentage of 1.2 percent was the best in the NFL.
I’m not in the camp that believes the 49ers need to revamp their entire offensive line, but the group they trot out every Sunday is night and day compared to what the Eagles have. Philadelphia controls games, thanks in large part to Saquon not being touched before he’s three yards past the line of scrimmage.
This comparison isn’t close, as the Eagles have the upper hand seemingly across the board.
Edge: Eagles
The 49ers offense was better equipped to score more against the Chiefs. But you can’t fumble on the opening drive as you’re about to score, or misfire on the two to three chances at explosive plays down the field, or come up empty after a turnover when you get the ball around mid-field.
We’ll discuss the other side of the ball on Friday.