What are some of the biggest reasons that San Francisco has struggled on the field this season?
It’s been a sub-optimal year for the San Francisco 49ers, who have started off 5-7 and are in grave danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since the 2020 season, which coincidentally was also an injury-ravaged year.
The injuries have played a big role in San Francisco’s struggles this season, as the team has dealt with a number of key players missing games, but the on-field play hasn’t been great on either side of the ball, with different concerns popping up weekly.
However, through all the ups and downs, there have been two statistics that have correlated to San Francisco’s wins and losses in 2024: turnovers and run defense.
The turnovers aspect is sensible for many teams across the league: when you’re turning the ball over, you’re not going to win games. Consequently, when you force more turnovers, you’re more likely to win games.
But, the run defense aspect has been a glaring issue for the 49ers throughout the year, especially in their losses.
Coming into the season, it was clear that San Francisco’s run defense was going to take a hit, as the team lost top run defender Arik Armstead and didn’t have much of an interior presence on their roster.
I’ve also expressed concerns with the team’s defensive scheme, as without a space-eater in the middle, it’s easier for teams to run against the Wide 9, given the spacing available for rushing lanes.
But, when you look at the numbers, the run defense has been alarming in the losses.
In San Francisco’s five wins this season, they’ve allowed an average of just 71.8 rushing yards per game.
In the seven losses? That number skyrockets to 154.3 yards, highlighted by their rough performance against the Buffalo Bills, where they gave up 220 yards on the ground.
While the pass rush has been up and down, especially with Nick Bosa out of the lineup, the run defense has easily been the biggest issue on the defense this year. That, in return, has hurt the 49ers in the secondary, as they’ve had to adjust and don’t get as many favorable second or third-down situations.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan acknowledged the issue, noting that the run defense has been a key problem all year long.
“The bottom line is we haven’t played good enough run defense,” Shanahan said Wednesday. “You look at all of our losses, these last two weeks have been as bad as it gets. Especially when you give up the run game like we have in these last two weeks in the first half, the game’s almost over before it starts going into that second half. I still thought we had every chance to make it a game in the second half, but that’s when we had our three turnovers in both games, which leads to blowouts.”
“If you look at all of our losses this year, I think the least amount of yards we’ve given up in a loss is close to 150. So we haven’t been stopping the run well enough. That starts with people being out of gaps. It can go to missed tackles, it can go to not getting off the field on third-down so they get a few more runs called. It can go to not getting enough turnovers and it can go to missed assignments. So it’s all above.”
The 49ers have a chance to win a favorable matchup this weekend, as the Chicago Bears have rushed for over 100 yards just once in their last five games. If they can hold Chicago to that mark once again, their defense should be able to generate enough stops to give the team a good chance to win on Sunday.
But, as it has been with this defense all year long, getting that consistency can be unpredictable.