The writing could be on the wall for a 2024 49ers bright spot

The signs are not good for his return.

Very little went right for the San Francisco 49ers in 2024, but one undoubted bright spot was the play of running back Jordan Mason.

With Christian McCaffrey out of the lineup, as he dealt with Achilles tendinitis for the first eight games of the season, Mason thrived, racking up three 100-yard games in the first four weeks. Only once in his eight starts did he fail to record at least 50 yards on the ground.

Mason appeared primed to finish an impressive year with a 1,000-yard campaign when McCaffrey went down with a knee injury against the Buffalo Bills, only for Mason to suffer a season-ending high ankle sprain later in the same game.

Still, after impressing with a career-high 789 yards at an average of 5.2 yards per carry, Mason certainly did enough to deserve being rewarded by the Niners.

Yet more bad luck could be about to befall Mason, as his entry into restricted free agency was particularly unfortunate.

Mason was objectively excellent as a starter, yet he ranked only 25th in DVOA (per-play value), 26th in DYAR (total value), and 20th in Expected Points Added per attempt among running backs, per FTN Fantasy.

With Mason possessing limited upside as a pass-catcher, such numbers will likely make the 49ers reluctant to tender him as an RFA. The right of first refusal tender is $3.26 million, and a second-round tender is $5.34 million, per Over The Cap.

Given the cap situation, the 49ers just spent $31 million in dead cap to trade Deebo Samuel to the Washington Commanders, and such numbers do not seem palatable to San Francisco.

And the crop of running backs in this year’s draft lowers the odds of the 49ers being willing to tender Mason or even sign him to a long-term extension to decrease his cap hit.

Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider described the running back class as “rare,” adding that he “can’t remember this number of legit prospects” in previous years.

That is terrible news for any back entering unrestricted or even restricted free agency, and the 49ers have made it very obvious that they are interested in the class.

San Francisco met with several running backs at the Combine, including one in Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, who fits a zone-blocking scheme to a tee and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.57 seconds, a nearly identical time to Mason’s 4.58 in 2022 while weighing in at 224 pounds. Mason tipped the scales at 223 in his pre-draft testing.

The Niners also met with two other bigger backs in Cam Skattebo and Omarion Hampton, though the latter is not likely to be in their plans as a first-round pick in the eyes of many. Ohio State’s Quinshon Judkins, who ran the 40 in 4.48 seconds at 221 pounds and has at least 20 receptions and two receiving touchdowns in each of his last two seasons, could also be a potential target as a bigger back who can wear down defenses in a similar fashion to Mason.

The 49ers need insurance to back Christian McCaffrey. Mason brilliantly provided it when healthy last year. However, the cold, hard reality is that, through the draft, the 49ers have the means to acquire that insurance at a more affordable cost.

San Francisco saw flashes of huge upside from Isaac Guerendo in his rookie year. He will almost certainly have a role to play in 2025, and though durability has been a massive problem for Elijah Mitchell, there’s a strong case to be made for bringing him back on the vet minimum and adding another back via the draft ahead of tendering Mason.

The 49ers need their roster to be cheaper in 2025 and in the years ahead. Letting Mason walk and taking advantage of a historic draft class at the position is an easy step for San Francisco to take as it looks to achieve that aim. Despite a career year for Mason, the writing looks to be on the wall for his 49ers future.