The difference is what each team did with their turnovers and how one offense was able to pad the lead
Scrolling social media on Monday morning, you’ll read how the Philadelphia Eagles defense dominated the Kansas City Chiefs.
Vic Fangio did not blitz Patrick Mahomes once. According to Next Gen Stats, the Eagles’ defense became the fourth defense not to blitz in a game during the NGS era.
Instead, Fangio and the Eagles relied on a homegrown front four to generate pressure. Philadelphia generated 16 pressures and sacked Patrick Mahomes six times, the most in a game in his career.
There’s no way to quantify how valuable it is to hit a quarterback early. Sure, we can chart stats from the first time a quarterback gets hit, but you have to see how they’re affected to fully grasp the difference. Super Bowl LIX is the perfect example.
The Eagles played bully ball in the trenches. The Chiefs’ offensive line looked outmanned, and Mahomes dropped his eyes and flushed from the pocket out of fear of being hit. Arguably, the greatest quarterback of all time looked human.
Think about what makes a quarterback accurate. They play on time, have their feet underneath them, and get to play with rhythm. A poised quarterback is the most dangerous player on the field. But the threat of getting hit tends to speed QBs up, which affects everything, from balance to poise.
We must also acknowledge how sacks end drives and pressures do not. In last year’s Super Bowl, the San Francisco 49ers generated 20 pressures on 46 dropbacks but only sacked Mahomes three times. Those three extra Eagles sacks ended the drive or led to a punt.
The more I think about Super Bowl LIX and the Eagles blowout victory, the more I think that’s what last year’s game looks like if you simulated it another nine times.
Both the 49ers and Eagles went 3-for-12 on third downs. Nobody beats Steve Spagnuolo on third downs, but that would never be the path to victory for either team. Let’s focus on the other side of the ball.
It took Kansas City nine possessions to score a touchdown against Philadelphia. The (correct) narrative is that the Eagles put on this historic performance and shut down the greatest signal-caller of this generation.
In the same game a year ago, Steve Wilks called a defense that held Mahomes out of the end zone until its tenth possession. And the only reason Kansas City scored on that tenth drive was due to a short field that was courtesy of a 49ers special teams catastrophe. The Chiefs didn’t pick up a first down on six of those drives, and the Niners forced two turnovers.
The biggest difference that was ultimately the deciding factor in each game was what each offense did after those turnovers. The Eagles’ defense had a pick-six, and their second interception gave the offense the ball at Kansas City’s six-yard line. The 49ers weren’t as fortunate.
The Niners forced a fumble and had an interception in the third quarter. Let’s walk down memory lane and revisit how the offense fared after each turnover.
After picking up a first down via penalty, the 49ers handed the ball off to Deebo Samuel for a one-yard gain. Christian McCaffrey, who had just been named Offensive Player of the Year, went in motion as a decoy on that play. Kyle Shanahan handed the ball to McCaffrey on 2nd & 9. He gained one yard. Chris Jones made both plays. On third down, the offense relied on Deebo once again. Purdy was sacked after Samuel failed to get open, and the offense was forced to punt.
Ji’Ayir Brown’s interception gave the offense the ball on Kansas City’s 44-yard line. Kyle Shanahan had intentions of being aggressive, but the Chiefs had a free runner on a blitz, and Purdy had to scramble and throw the ball away before the play could develop.
Not only do you fail to gain yards on first down, Aaron Banks false starts on second down. On 2nd & 15, the ball finds Deebo again. Trent McDuffie had him in a straightjacket all night and broke up the pass.
On 3rd & 15, Purdy inexplicably leaves the pocket despite no pressure, and Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t get a catch-and-run opportunity for a first down. While it won’t show up in the stat sheet, that third down play is evidence to support that a quarterback can suffer from the trauma of being hit earlier in a game.
I’m not absolving the 49ers defensive performance in the fourth quarter and overtime. That can be true while acknowledging that one of the most potent, explosive, and efficient offenses in modern history has to score more than two times in ten possessions while its defense keeps a future Hall of Famer out of the end zone.
Penalties were an issue, and there were busts along the offensive line. However, after re-watching the game, certain players’ usage or lack thereof remains puzzling. The Eagles committed more penalties against the Chiefs than the 49ers did.
They also had flags that did not go their way and threw an interception that took points off the scoreboard. There are enough possessions in a game where teams can overcome multiple mistakes. We see it weekly. One play or drive is never the reason you’ll win or lose a game. Not when we’re talking about a 70-play sample size.
There are certain aspects you can’t control. Kansas City lost one fumble on Sunday. San Francisco lost two fumbles last year. The Eagles found a way to do what the 49ers could not: score more than twice early in the game while your defense dominates.
By the time the Chiefs offense woke up in Super Bowl LIX, it was too late. Once they did against the 49ers, it was still a competitive game because San Francisco couldn’t build on their early lead.