Ranking the Top 50 players in the NFL Draft into 6 different tiers

We ranked the top 50 players in the class and put them into tiers, and then explained 5 omissions at the end.

I remember the first year I joined Twitter and got into the NFL Draft was in 2013. That year, many of the top analysts today were convinced that LSU’s wide receiver Jarvis Landry was head and shoulders better than his teammate, Odell Beckham Jr. I also remember what side of the fence I was on in that argument.

That made me think I had a future in identifying talent. I could brag to you about being right about the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback before it was popular, how I was on an island when nobody thought this prospect named Chris Jones was legit, but also laugh about having Devante Parker as WR1, Malik McDowell as the top player in the draft a few years later, and probably 20 other things that weren’t close.

The point is, we’re all wrong.

In the same breath, I’d feel confident and comfortable explaining the following rankings to San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch in the draft room. I can show you my work and explain why a player is ranked where they are.

All that is to say I’m not falling in line with the “group think.” I’m not concerned about where a player is being drafted. That’s not what these rankings are for. To me, it’s for two years from now, and we look back and see how wrong we were, how much of that player’s fit — from scheme to team he was drafted to — truly mattered, and less about ranking a player No. 5 overall because everyone else had him there.

I do not care.

This exercise will be a little different. Instead of assigning numbers to the 50 players below, I have grouped them into tiers. And that’s not just in the 2025 class. This is a zoomed-out view that would be true, regardless of the draft.

As I go through them, you might see me list an NFL player alongside that person. It’s less about a comparison and more about a “bucket” that player falls into. We get too caught up in player comparisons and then twist ourselves into creating a height-weight-speed comparison, when really, it’s about their style of play and how impactful I see that prospect becoming as a pro.

OK. You’ve been warned. Let’s get into the “top 50 players” from this draft.

Tier I

This tier is reserved for players destined to be an All-Pro and ones you trade up for. We have two in this class.

• Travis Hunter

Colorado’s Travis Hunter tracks, high points, and catches the ball like a Hall of Famer. Defensively, his instincts help him live around the ball. As you might expect, when mini-Fitz gets his hands on the ball, he’s coming away with it.

I see Larry Fitzgerald in Hunter. That’s how insane his hands and athleticism are. When I think of athleticism, it’s as much about contorting and adjusting your body to maneuver as it is about a 10-yard split. That’s the bucket I’m dropping him into. No pressure, kid.

• Armand Membou

The more I thought about it, the more I put Membou in the Tristan Wirfs bucket. That’s a player who has proven to be Tier I. Membou is a monster who excels as a run blocker in ways few do:

He might be better in pass protection, which is scary. In pass protection, against every top prospect or draft-eligible prospect imaginable, Membou won and did so relatively easily. You run out of ways to lose against him, and his aggressive nature leads me to believe Membou’s floor is higher than most prospects floor.

I’m willing to be wrong about this type of player because this type of player doesn’t generally fail in the NFL. They flourish.

Tier II

This tier is reserved for Pro Bowl talents who will be game-changers. If Tier I is reserved All-Pro players, then Tier II is high-quality Pro Bowl starters who are poised to earned massive extensions.

• Mason Graham – Michigan – DT
• Will Campbell – LSU – OT
• Walter Nolen – Ole Miss – DT
• Colston Loveland – Michigan – TE
• Will Johnson – Michigan – CB
• Abdul Carter – Penn State – Edge
• Shevon Revel Jr. – East Carolina – CB

Since 2018, only four defensive tackles selected in the first round had a career run stop and pass rush win rate of at least 10%:

Vita Vea
Quinnen Williams
Jeffery Simmons
Jalen Carter

I’d say that’s a decent group of players to be mentioned alongside of. Which DTs fit that mold this year? Graham and Nolen. Both win in different ways, but consistently cause chaos, whether it’s against the run or pass. Thanks to Nolen’s violence and Graham’s first step, that won’t change in the NFL.

Loveland screams star in the NFL. I don’t know which position is going to guard him. Safeties are too small, and he’s too agile for linebackers. After watching Brock Bowers nearly reach 1,200 yards as a rookie, and seeing how he got open, it’s easy for me to project Loveland as a pro. He’s a star.

Carter will likely fall into eight sacks due to his speed and athleticism, although I fear that the lack of power may limit his ceiling.

Speaking of ceilings, Revel Jr. might be a year away because of an ACL injury, but he’s the type of cornerback you can trust in any situation against any wide receiver and know he’ll come away not only victorious, but likely with a turnover by the end of the game.

Tier III

This is the tier I’d take in the bottom half of the first round—players who will start, contribute, and not disappoint.

• Tetairoa McMillan – Arizona – WR
• Josh Simmons – Ohio St – LT
• Ashton Jeanty – Boise St – RB
• Mason Taylor – LSU – TE
• Mike Green – Marshall – Edge

Let’s put McMillan in the Tee Higgins bucket.

Simmons suffered a torn patellar tendon. It’s the type of injury that usually zaps your pre-injury explosiveness — which was what made Simmons look like a top 10 pick. History suggests that Simmons’ career gets cut short and he’ll never regain his pre-injury form. If I knew he could, he wouldn’t be in this tier.

Jeanty is an interesting case as the value isn’t there, but the wear and tear is. Also, I don’t think he’s this explosive back who runs a sub-4.45. There are also not many exposures of him flourishing as a receiver. However, his vision and contact balance are quite good, so the appeal makes sense. I’d tell an NFL team expect Ezekiel Elliott when he was on his rookie contract.

Taylor knows how to get open, catches everything, and has the size to hold up as a blocker. He’ll be a mismatch on the first day and easily outplay his draft position.

Green plays too hard to fail. Tenacious is an apt way to describe him. He loves his spin move, but can also win in a variety of ways as a pass rusher. If you’re concerned about Green’s size, put him on the backside of the formation and watch him chase down plays.

Tier IV

In most drafts, players ranked from 15-26 would still be first-rounders. But we’re thinking universally. Because of that, this is the early second round tier of players who might run hot and cold with higher ceilings or lower floors, or live smack dab in the middle of the spectrum and be “safe.”

• Mykel Williams – Georgia – DL
• Benjamin Morrison – Notre Dame – CB
• Tyleik Williams – Ohio State – DT
• Kelvin Banks Jr. – Texas – OT
• Jahdae Barron – Texas – CB
• Derrick Harmon – Oregon – DT
• Emekua Egbuka – Ohio State – WR
• Luther Burden – Missouri – WR
• Tyler Warren – Penn State – TE
• Donovan Jackson – Ohio State – IOL
• Kenneth Grant – Michigan – DT
• Jihaad Campbell – Alabama – LB

Williams is the player that’s going to live in the middle of the spectrum. He’s 20, so the assumption is that he’ll ascend into this dominant pass rusher. So why hasn’t that happened in three years of playing? Why didn’t Kirby Smart unleash him and this athletic upside on obvious passing downs? What top 10 pick comes off the field on third downs? If Williams were on the field, he’d kick inside at defensive tackle. I struggle to put a player in the first round when they’ve shown little ability to impact the game as a pass rusher consistently.

He’s the exact opposite against the run. Smart, strong as an ox, always in position, and consistently making plays. Williams is a dominant and disciplined run defender, which makes his floor high. If the lightbulb ever comes on and it clicks for Williams as a pass rusher, he’ll belong in the second tier. For now, Williams goes in the Arik Armstead bucket.

Morrison had his second hip surgery since high school. On the field, he’s a first rounder through and through. Again, we can’t ignore injuries. If I knew I was getting a clean bill of health, he’d be in the first. I see a lot of D.J. Reed and Greg Newsome in Morrison. That’s the bucket I’m dropping him in.

Tyleik Williams might be the most underrated player in the draft when we look back on this class a few years from now. He will instantly transform your run defense. There’s a path to him being a competent pass rusher in the NFL. You can see it with how quickly he wins:

I can’t give him credit for something that hasn’t happened yet, but you could see how Williams will win at the next level. Him playing multiple games at Ohio State with at least 40 snaps is a promsing sign for a player his size.

Barron, Harmon, and Egbuka all are the “Steady Eddie’s” of this class. Egbuka will catch 90+ passes and move the chains, ala Amon Ra-St Brown.

Harmon will play in the league and have a role, but I don’t know if he’ll ever be this spashly playmaker who breaks the bank when it comes time for a new contract. Like Williams, I’d lump Harmon as a “safe” prospect every team could use. Harmon wins with quickness, so there’s more upside than you might think as a pass rusher, but I’m convinced he’s closer to an end of the first round talent that blends in more than stands out as a pro.

Barron is the ideal defensive back in today’s NFL, but I don’t know if he’d be my first choice if I needed somebody to guard Brandon Aiyuk on third down.

Grant is another player getting a project/upside label, when in reality he might be the safest in the class. Jackson isn’t far behind him. Big fans of both and have a hard time seeing either not being productive in the NFL.

Burden was a headache for every defense in 2023. He’ll likely return to that level in 2025. I’d spam him targets and use Burden the same way the Giants used Malik Nabers as a rookie.

Campbell is a run and chase linebacker, but comparisons to Fred Warner are hollow as he goes series, and even games, without making plays.

Tier V

The next group of players are more dependent on where they land. I consider most of them to be lower-end starters with upside.

• Andrew Mukuba – Texas – S
• Tyler Booker – Alabama – IOL
• Malaki Starks – Georgia – S
• Jalon Walker – Georgia – LB
• Shemar Stewart – Texas A&M – Edge
• Josh Conerly – Oregon – OT
• Matthew Golden – Texas – WR
• Trey Amos – Ole Miss – CB
• Cam Ward – Miami – QB
• James Pearce – Tennessee – Edge
• DJ Giddens – Kansas State – RB
• Gray Zabel – North Dakota St. – IOL
• Shedeur Sanders – Colorado – QB

Mukuba’s weight is a concern, but his play this past season at Texas was nothing short of spectacular. There aren’t many scenarios where I think that doesn’t continue in the NFL.

I have no idea what to do with Walker and Stewart. Their film left….a lot….to be desired. I understand the upside. I see the athletic traits. But we’re not talking about players who have played 10-15 games. Why should I assume they’ll continue to get better and not think this is who they are? I’m going with the latter.

Matthew Golden Tate.

I see Amos’s career playing out a lot like Carlton Davis’s. He’ll be competitve for a long, long time.

Pearce plays as fast as he ran (4.47 40-yard dash) and his first step is equally as impressive. It looked relatively obvious that the Vols put Pearce in advantageous situations where teams couldn’t expose him against the run. He’s a high ceiling pass rusher who doesn’t win with power. One trick ponies don’t generally fare well in the NFL, where you can’t hide.

As for Giddens, I’m not sure where to begin. I don’t know why he’s not thought of highly. The first guy doesn’t tackle him and he avoids contact like the plague.

Tier VI

The final tier consists of players 40-50. These are players you hope to contribute in some capacity as a rookie, and eventually turn into starters at some point down the line. Their floors may be lower as fit matters more, or if they’re asked to do something they didn’t do in college — believe it or not, it happens all the time!

• Aireontae Ersery – Minnesota – OT
• Kaleb Johnson – Iowa – RB
• Marcus Mbow – Purdue – OT
• Azareye’h Thomas – Florida State – CB
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt – Arizona – RB
• Carson Schwesinger – UCLA – LB
• TreyVeon Henderson – RB – Ohio State
• Oluwafemi Oladejo – UCLA – Edge
• Jacob Parrish – Kansas State – CB
• Omarion Hampton – North Carolina – RB
• Jayden Higgins – Iowa State – WR

Why do athletic projects get the benefit of the doubt on the defensive line but not the offensive line? If Walker and Stewart are guaranteed to come with upside, why wouldn’t Erery and Mbow?

I’d argue Mbow’s athletic prowess, understanding of who to block, and technique will allow him to hold up at right tackle and start in this league for multiple contracts.

If Johnson goes to the 49ers/Rams/Vikings, pencil him in for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Johnson’s vision will make him right 9 out of 10 times.

Thomas defended every route in the book and showed that he can be competitve in most situations. His 40 time at his pro day doesn’t bother me because he’s a fluid athlete that doesn’t rely on recovery speed. This will be another player I regret having a tier too low for.

Croskey-Merritt is arguably the most explosive runner in the class. He can stand to let off the turbo button and tempo his runs, but that speed also leads to breaking tackles and a bunch of 40+ yard runs.

Oladejo, in a similiar vein as Mike Green, plays too hard to let him slide out of the top 50. He’s a tremendous run defender who has the chops to win as a pass rusher. He might never be a Batman, but he’ll pressure the quarterback enough to be a Robin.

Parrish jumps off the screen against Iowa State. He had their wideouts in hell. He’s 5’9, but generally has the upperhand when it comes to physicality. Running a 4.35 was not an outlier as Parrish plays that fast. He’ll be the prized nickel of this class if you miss out on Barron early.

Speaking of Iowa State, Higgins has the athletic profile to be a WR1 in the NFL. The problem is I think he’s better suited off the ball and when he’s in motion. He’s a “Z” receiver trapped in a 6’4, 214-pound body. Give him free access outside of running slants, and you’ll be a happy customer.

Explain the 5 omits

• Donovan Ezeiruaku

I don’t know how he’ll consistently win in the NFL with his style of play. He seems contact adverse. That will not fly when you’re going against 300+ pounds every play.

• Xavier Watts

Watts isn’t an NFL athlete to me. That shows up, often, when it’s time to tackle or chase down a ball carrier in the alley.

• Darius Alexander

I’d expect a 6-year senior to dominate MAC competition. You can see the glimpses, but there are stretches, quarters, and even halves where Alexander went without doing anything of note. It’s one thing to stack an offensive lineman with power but when you can’t shed a block or turn that into a win, I’m not going to give you credit for that.

• Maxwell Hairston

Fast, but small. Texas isn’t a game I can shake from my head. Hairston has the coverage chops because he moves so well and you can see the 4.28 speed. But when you’re only relying on speed and don’t have mechanics, instincts, or technique, that type of prospect fizzles out in the NFL.

• Nick Emmanwori

Emmanwori going in the first round is breaking my brain. I do not see a player who tested the way he did, nor do I see a football player who understands what he’s being asked to do in coverage. Multiple blunders and a lack of physicality makes the South Carolina safety an easy pass for me.