There aren’t many reasons to believe the 49ers won’t be in the postseason.
Once again, the San Francisco 49ers are projected to be amongst the best teams in the NFL for the 2024 season. ESPN’s FPI projections have the Niners with the lowest average draft position for next year.
Super Bowl. NFC Championship. NFC Championship. Missed playoffs. Super Bowl. That’s how the previous five seasons have gone for the 49ers, and the missed playoffs were because the team didn’t have a quarterback, among other various injuries.
While a healthy quarterback is undoubtedly a key factor in the 49ers’ success, it’s not the sole determinant. The team’s ability to score close to 30 points per game is also a result of the numerous offensive weapons and the impact of defensive stars.
PFF went through each team to determine one reason they might miss the playoffs. The 49ers will be without star linebacker Dre Greenlaw for some portion of the season. His loss could lead to some defensive regression, which could show on the scoreboard. That’s PFF’s thought process, anyway:
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: DRE GREENLAW MISSING TIME EARLY HURTS THEIR DEFENSE
The 49ers roster is also loaded, and they are rightly favored to emerge from the NFC again in 2024. The loss of Dre Greenlaw should not be underestimated, though, with the linebacker earning PFF coverage grades above 70.0 in each of the past two seasons.
The 49ers hope that pairing De’Vondre Campbell with Fred Warner in Greenlaw’s absence will help Campbell return to the form that saw him earn PFF coverage grades of 81.0 or better in 2021 and 2022 before struggling in his final season in Green Bay.
There’s no doubt Greenlaw’s presence will be missed. You cannot simulate his style of play and down-to-down impact that doesn’t show up in the box score. Plus, he’s a superb athlete at 27, being replaced by a 30-year-old linebacker who has suffered multiple injuries during the past couple of seasons. The 49ers hope the drop-off is minimal, but I have doubts.
Turnovers and sacks should minimize Dre’s absence, as should scoring points. The 49ers are built to do all three and do so at a high level, which is why they’re heavily favored to make the playoffs.
What would prevent the 49ers from making the playoffs in your mind outside of outlier injuries? Let us know in the comments. It could be a regression in some area or losing the majority of their one-possession games.