The 49ers will likely need to replace Charvarius Ward this offseason. This option is a risky one
The San Francisco 49ers are expected to have a new starting cornerback this offseason. Pro Football Focus projected a few unrestricted free agents and their potential landing spots. Talanoa Hufanga is off to the Indianapolis Colts or the Denver Broncos. Charvarius Ward has his eyes set on the Minnesota Vikings or New England Patriots.
That means there’s a hole opposite of Renardo Green and Deommodore Lenoir. In this hypothetical situation, Ward’s replacement is another veteran. Here’s their blurb for Carlton Davis:
Robert Saleh is back at the helm of the 49ers’ defense, and the expectation is that he will look to emulate the vaunted unit he coached in New York, characterized by its healthy use of Cover 1. Davis could even prove to be an upgrade over the departing Charvarius Ward in Saleh’s scheme.
Upgrade might be a stretch. We have multiple seasons of data that tells us Ward is a borderline elite cornerback. Expecting Ward’s play not to level off after what he went through this past year ignores the human element that happens so often when we talk about sports.
Before this season, Ward didn’t miss a game in two years with the 49ers. Davis has never played a full season since he was drafted in 2018. In fact, the most games he’s played in a season was 14. So, if availability is a priority, signing Davis is a substantial risk, knowing that his history suggests he’ll miss at least a month of the season.
Looking at their stats side by side further drives home the point that Davis isn’t an upgrade. He’s the same age as Mooney. Davis misses tackles at a higher rate despite not having as many, allows more yards per target without having the same ball production Ward did, and lacks the same athleticism.
That’s not to say Davis isn’t a viable option. He’s a competitive cornerback that can excel in press coverage. But if ” tiers ” exist at cornerback, Ward and D.J. Reed are in one, and Davis is a notch below.
Over the Cap projects Davis’s annual price is around $14.5 million. Given his injury history, the 49ers would be better off taking a different approach, perhaps even entering the NFL Draft. I suspect Davis will have his fair share of suitors, perhaps pricing himself out of the Niners’ market.