One possession games, turnovers, and plenty of points have been the story of the Green Bay Packers season. How does that compare to the 49ers?
The 5-5 San Francisco 49ers and the 7-3 Green Bay Packers might have two games separating them, but they are two teams with eerily similar numbers.
Both San Francisco and Green Bay have scored 250 points through ten games. San Francisco’s defense has only allowed nine more points than Green Bay’s, and San Francisco has only gained 108 more yards on offense than the Packers. Green Bay has turned the ball over one more time than San Francisco, while Green Bay’s defense has only forced three more than the 49ers.
But the records are different, and that’s the difference between being the No. 6 seed and being firmly in a playoff spot like the Packers and the No. 10 seed on the outside looking in like the 49ers.
The difference in records can probably be attributed to one thing, and that’s where we will start this week’s numbers to know.
13
The 49ers and Packers have combined for 13 one-possession games. Green Bay is 5-2, while San Francisco is just 2-4.
There may be a silver lining for the 49ers, but both of the one-possession wins have come in their last three games, with San Francisco beating Dallas 30-24 before its bye week and Tampa Bay 23-20 after. Unfortunately, the 49ers’ loss to Seattle on Sunday killed the one-score momentum they seemed to have.
Like the 49ers, Green Bay also had a one-possession game against a divisional team on Sunday. Unlike the 49ers, though, Green Bay created some luck, blocking Cairo Santos’ attempted game-winning field goal to give the Packers a 20-19 win in Chicago.
Green Bay did have a slow start in one-possession games, dropping its season opener in Brazil to the Eagles 34-29 and losing in Week 4 to Minnesota 31-29. The Packers were able to slip a tight win against the Colts between the two losses, starting 1-2 in one-score games before winning four in a row against the Rams, Texans, Jaguars, and Bears.
In what could be a good sign for Sunday, the last three 49ers/Packers games (including the postseason) have all been decided by three points, with San Francisco going 2-1 and winning the previous two, both in the playoffs.
19
The Packers defense has forced 19 turnovers this season, tied for third-most in the league.
Green Bay has already forced more turnovers through 10 games this season than it did all of last season when the Packers defense forced 18 in 17 games. If Green Bay’s current place holds through the end of the season, it’ll be the first time since 2011 that a Packers defense has ranked in the top three in turnovers forced.
San Francisco’s offense hasn’t been prone to turnovers this season – its 13 turnovers are tied for the 13th-fewest – but when it does, the turnovers come in bunches. The 49ers offense has turned the ball over at least once in seven of its ten games this season. Of those seven games, the 49ers turned the ball over at least twice in four and three times in two games.
Green Bay specializes in collecting turnovers in bunches. The Packers have forced at least three turnovers five times this season, which is the most such games in the league. The 15 turnovers in the five games are more than 21 teams have forced in the entire season.
It might not be the end of the world if Green Bay does force a trio of turnovers on Sunday: the Packers are only 3-2 in games where it forces three or more turnovers, while the 49ers are 1-1 in games where it turns the ball over three or more times.
24
Green Bay’s offense has scored 24 or more points seven times this season, tied for fourth most in the league.
After allowing 24 or more points five times through 20 games last season (including the postseason), San Francisco’s defense has allowed at least 24 points in five of 10 games this season. The 49ers are 2-3 in those five games, winning the most recent one with the 30-24 win over the Cowboys. Green Bay started the season scoring at least 24 points in seven of its first eight games – going 6-2 in that stretch – but has failed to reach 24 points in each of its last two games.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco’s offense has crossed the 24-point plateau five times this season – going 4-1 in those games – a drastic decrease from last season that saw the 49ers score 30 or more points seven times over its first ten games. Green Bay’s defense hasn’t allowed too much scoring – its 21.3 points allowed per game is tenth – so it’s only allowed 24 or more four times this season.
It shouldn’t be surprising, but Green Bay is 1-3 in those games.
Since the calendar turned to November, neither side has scored more than 24 points in a game. 24 might be the magic number for the team to come out of Lambeau with a win on Sunday.