Speed matters, but only when it can translate to the field
I’ve wondered how long it will be before 40-yard dashes are entirely phased out from the NFL Combine or the majority of athletes refuse to run at Indianapolis. You could have a bad day that could be caused by several things out of your control and run a time that’s held over your head for the rest of your life.
It happened to San Francisco 49ers safety Ji’Ayir Brown, who ran in the 4.6s after months of training in the high 4.4s to low 4.5s. Instead of being drafted in the second round, Brown slipped to the end of the third. That might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for both the Niners and the Browns, but not everybody falls into a comfortable situation.
Brown’s teammate, Jauan Jennings, slipped to the seventh round of the draft after running a 4.72 40. Jennings was an accomplished receiver for the Tennessee Volunteers, coming off a senior season in which he caught 59 passes for 969 yards and eight touchdowns. But NFL teams were scared off by his 40.
You won’t confuse Jennings for a “burner,” but a recent study from Joseph Ferraiola on linear play speed that adjusts to gameplay speed highlighted the importance of what happens on the field.
The goal of this study and the application of the model was to eventually be able to use College tracking data to predict the difference in times before the NFL Draft, soplayers like Jennings don’t fall to the seventh round.
Here’s the graphic for players who play faster and slower than their 40-time. As you can see, there are a pair of former 49er wideouts listed:
As the chart above illustrates, Jennings plays significantly faster on the field. He’s a full two-tenths faster and comfortably ahead of the rest of the field. As you can see, Kendrick Bourne is also listed.
As for the wideouts who play slower, we can see D.K. Metcalf really open it up when he has space, but, by in large, you don’t see the 4.33 pop-up often.
This study is not just fascinating; it’s potentially game-changing as analytics and predictive studies continue to make their mark on the NFL.