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The Philadelphia Eagles have the NFL’s best record entering Sunday’s NFC Championship Game rematch with the San Francisco 49ers. Even with home-field advantage, the 10-1 Eagles enter the marquee matchup as underdogs.
San Francisco is a 2.5-point favorite on most sportsbooks with a three-point edge on ESPN Bet. Kyle Shanahan couldn’t explain the spread when asked if he’s bothered by his 8-3 team being favored.
“I mean, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, but I don’t really know how that stuff works,” Shanahan said. “So, I don’t really know why. It is random.”
Kyle Shanahan doesn’t know why the 49ers are favored to beat the Eagles at Philadelphia. https://t.co/acWCOXUA7B
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) November 30, 2023
The 49ers head coach probably just didn’t want to give his opponents any bulletin-board material, but plenty of numbers explain why Vegas favors his team on the road.
While San Francisco ranks second in FTN’s DVOA, Philadelphia is ninth. The 49ers are third in total offense and fifth in total defense; the Eagles rank ninth and 19th.
The Eagles have a superior record, but their +64 point differential trails six teams, including the 49ers (+140).
Philadelphia has already defeated four of those teams with a higher scoring margin, but that includes three narrow November victories that could have gone either way.
The Eagles were inches away from losing to the Dallas Cowboys before a Marquez-Valdes Scantling drop helped secure a 21-17 road victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. They escaped with a 37-34 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills last Sunday despite getting outgained by 127 total yards.
Before persevering against those tough opponents, the Eagles opened their NFC title defense with a modest 25-20 win over a New England Patriots team now fighting for the No. 1 pick. They also needed overtime to defeat the Washington Commanders — who have since lost twice to the New York Giants — in Week 4 before suffering their only loss to Zach Wilson’s New York Jets.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have responded to a three-game losing streak with three straight wins by a combined 62 points. They have looked virtually unstoppable aside from a rough patch with Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel sidelined.
Shanahan will see if his team vindicates the betting line when facing Philadelphia this Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET.