A last-place schedule could do wonders for the 49ers as far as strength as opponent goes
The San Francisco 49ers are playing the string out with two more games remaining, but an NFC West showdown on Saturday between the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams will determine the strength of their schedule in 2025.
If the Rams beat the Cardinals, they’ll clinch the NFC West based on the strength of victory tiebreaker, thanks in part to a victory over the 49ers. Tiebreaker scenarios will drive you up the wall, but it’s straightforward for Kyle Shanahan’s crew since they already lost to Arizona earlier this season.
A loss to the Lions guarantees the 49ers a last-place finish in the division. San Francisco would need to win this week and next week against Arizona to finish third place, and the Cardinals to lose this week for the Niners not to finish in the basement of the NFC.
There are three tiebreaking scenarios that determine who finishes above who at the end of the season. You have the head-to-head tiebreaker, the won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division, and the won-lost-tied percentage in common games played.
The 49ers are currently 1-4 in the NFC West, with the Cardinals sitting at 2-2. An Arizona win gives them the divisional tiebreaker and ensures a last-place finish for the 49ers in the NFC West. We’ll get to why that matters in a moment.
But once we reach the third tiebreaker, we can see the common opponents and how each has played out. Both teams lost to the Bills and Packers while beating the Jets, Bears, and Patriots. The outlier is the Miami Dolphins, who Arizona beat 28-27, while the 49ers lost to Mike McDaniel in Week 16.
If the above scenarios play out as expected, the third-place schedule in the NFC West would travel to the Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals while hosting the Green Bay Packers.
Conversely, the last-place schedule would hit the highway to face the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns while hosting the Chicago Bears. So, looking ahead, it would benefit the 49ers tremendously, from a scheduling standpoint, to finish last in the division.