Taking a look at the San Francisco 49ers’ schedule and seeing if they can afford to slip up again
The 5-6 San Francisco 49ers can afford only one more loss this season.
How they choose to use that loss is entirely up to them, but the short history of the 14-team play structure hasn’t been too kind to teams that have lost more than seven games.
The NFL moved to the 14-team playoff system for the 2020 season, and since then, 44 teams have finished with either seven, eight, or nine losses. Of those 44 teams, 20 made the playoffs. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but the list of teams who made the playoffs is heavy with seven-loss teams instead of teams with nine. But just how does it break down?
11 of the 44 teams lost seven games. All 11 teams made the postseason, and two of those 11 teams won their divisions.
With how the NFC West has played out this season, seven losses likely will do the job, but if the 49ers manage a 5-1 close to the season, they likely won’t need the division to get into the postseason.
The 100 percent of seven-loss teams drops drastically with eight-loss teams. There have been more eight-loss teams than seven since 2020 – 21 – but only a third have made the postseason. Like the seven-loss teams, only two have won a division, just over a quarter of the teams.
Eight losses might not be out of the question to win the West – with the first-place Seahawks with five losses – but for teams like the last-place Niners or the six-loss Buccaneers, the Commanders’ recent struggles have opened the window for an eight-loss non-division winning playoff team this season.
Nine losses would likely kill any playoff hopes the 49ers would have, with the division crown as the only lifeline to the postseason. Since 2020, 12 teams have lost nine games, but only two have made the playoffs. Those two teams were the 2022 Buccaneers and the 2020 Commanders. Both teams won their division and were promptly eliminated in the first weekend of the playoffs.
The nine-loss path would easily be the most complicated for the 49ers, who would need to go 3-3 over the last six games but must win their remaining division games against the Rams and Cardinals. Then, the Cardinals and Seahawks must each lose at least four of the last six games, and the Rams must lose at least three. That scenario doesn’t even consider where the losses would need to be for the 49ers to make up ground in any potential tiebreaker.
Logic says the easiest path to the postseason would be for the 49ers to miraculously run the table and finish the season at 11-6. But the short history of the 14-team playoffs tells us the 49ers can only lose one more game.
San Francisco should choose that loss wisely, with Buffalo, Miami, and Detroit on the remaining schedule.