The 49ers will have a 35-game sample size on Brock Purdy by the end of the season. It’s unlikely they’ll decide based on these final three games.
ESPN’s Dan Graziano asked which player over the next three weeks has the most at stake, and his answer was none other than San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.
In many ways, Purdy had only one direction to go after 2023. The offense peaked the second Purdy stepped onto the field against the Miami Dolphins in 2022, and since then, the Niners have made back-to-back NFC Championship appearances. Purdy’s variance and aggression led to the Niners’ offense operating at a level we’ve yet to see.
But that was with the best version of an emerging superstar, Brandon Aiyuk, and a pre-Achilles Christian McCaffrey for 1.5 seasons. Most of us would agree that he was also playing alongside an unrecognizable Deebo Samuel one year later.
Purdy is extension-eligible this offseason. Graziano wondered if the final three games of this season would affect offseason negotiations between Purdy and the organization:
Graziano: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. Extension-eligible for the first time this offseason, Purdy has been a steal for San Francisco since it made him the last pick of the 2022 draft and named him the starter during that season. His rookie deal has paid him less than $1 million per year on average, and he’s likely to get an extension from the Niners this offseason. But how lucrative that extension will be is one of the key questions facing this team as it confronts various salary cap challenges in the next several offseasons. Do the 49ers have the appetite or even the ability to pay Purdy $50 million per year or more? Will he insist on that? Could the final three games of this nearly-lost season in San Francisco affect these negotiations?
Relative to the video game numbers Purdy and the 49ers offense put up in 2023, he’s regressed in 2024. I’d argue that he’s the same player, making the same decisions and getting different results.
Purdy’s accuracy numbers have taken a dip. That’s been the one discernable difference. Per Sports Info Solutions, Purdy’s on-target percentage is down five percent from 2023, and his catchable percentage is down 2.5 percent.
That data matches the eye test. Purdy had one or two throws like this per game this year:
Recency bias has shifted the conversation to whether Purdy deserves top-tier quarterback money.
The money the 49ers give Purdy will tell us how they view him compared to his peers and which tier he’s in. Here’s Jeremy Fowler talking about the percentage of cap space a quarterback will take up:
“Purdy is a fascinating case study for NFL teams’ comfort levels paying top dollar to quarterbacks who are very good but outside the elite group. Five teams — the Dolphins, Lions, Packers, Jaguars and Cowboys — decided in the offseason they were comfortable allocating more than 20% of their yearly payroll to their quarterbacks each season. And the 49ers have already made accommodations for the inevitable. But how San Francisco tries to pull this off signifies a boiling point of sorts. After all, few teams have more star power than the 49ers, with nine returning players making between $15 million and $34 million per year.”
Purdy brings a couple of vital traits that every quarterback needs to excel at the position, which is why he’ll be paid.
Going back to Week 15 against the Rams, Purdy’s throw down the sideline to a covered George Kittle is flagged for a defensive pass interference eight out of ten times. Because it’s 2024, the 49ers didn’t get that call because nothing has gone their way this season.
Last season, when the Niners were rolling and looked unstoppable, that call went in their favor, and they scored a touchdown on the next play.
Purdy’s willingness to make those throws is what’s been missing from this offense. These are the kinds of throws you need to pull the trigger on when these are the receivers you are throwing it to:
That’s on 2nd & 20, backed up into your own end zone, and you put the ball in a perfect spot for a first down. Regardless of the result, that’s the kind of decision-making and thought process Purdy has. That’s a trait you need under center.
Purdy would have gotten flack had that been intercepted, but it was a great decision with a result that sums up how things have gone for him this season.
We’ve seen Purdy run out of numerous sacks this season and use his legs to extend plays or scramble for a first down to keep the drive alive. In a day and age when defenses are blitzing players from every direction, your quarterback doesn’t stand a chance if he can’t move.
Purdy has 11 runs this season for at least 10 yards. He’s second in the NFL in scramble yards. We don’t have to pretend he’s playing behind the Detroit Lions‘ offensive line. The 49ers have allowed the seventh-highest quarterback pressure rate at 37.8 percent per Next Gen Stats.
Here’s the final word from Fowler on Purdy:
The 49ers aren’t afraid of contentious negotiations, either (See: Aiyuk, Brandon). So the structure of a Purdy deal will be key. If the 49ers give in to a massive number, would they insist on a longer-term deal to spread out the cap hits and retain some level of control?
And if for some reason things go poorly and the 49ers need contingency plans, I can think of one quarterback who is playing for a lot: New York’s Aaron Rodgers. What’s interesting about Rodgers is he could finish with 4,000 yards and close to 30 touchdowns on the season. Not bad, amid all that has gone wrong.
The 49ers will endlessly discuss everything Purdy brings to the table and the shelf life of his skill set. They’re also projecting Purdy playing with Aiyuk and McCaffrey in 2025 and beyond.
So, it’s unlikely that Purdy’s fate will be decided in three games after the organization has seen him for what will be over a 35-game sample size in their building every day to see the type of person they’re dealing with.