Brock Purdy said he wishes he could get Deebo Samuel the ball on every play. How will that play out tonight against the Rams?
Thursday’s game against the Rams is a must-win for the San Francisco 49ers’ fleeting playoff chances. The 49ers’ playoff probability sits in single digits, and a win will double that. Los Angeles is coming off a huge win over the Buffalo Bills, and the 49ers beat the Chicago Bears wire to wire on Sunday. Now, the division rivals square off on primetime to keep their playoff hopes alive with a long history of close games and tough battles.
Here are five things to watch for on Thursday night.
Records in one-score games
Since the Rams’ Week 6 bye, Los Angeles has won six of their last eight games, with five wins coming in games decided by seven points or less. Week 3 saw the Rams erase a ten-point deficit to defeat the 49ers. On the flip side, the 49ers are 2-4 in one-score games in 2024.
Divisional games are always close, especially between Los Angeles and San Francisco. It sounds like rain is in the forecast in Santa Clara, at least to begin the game, which can lead to a messy game that will boil down to who can avoid mistakes and make more plays. The 49ers have to take advantage of any turnover opportunities and protect the football.
Deebo Samuel vs Los Angeles
9/17/2023 – 5 rushes, 38 yards, TD, six catches, and 63 yards.
10/3/2022 – 6 catches, 115 yards, TD
1/3/2022 (NFC Championship) – 4 catches, 72 yards, TD
Samuel missed the Week 3 matchup in Los Angeles but has torched the Rams in the past. 2024 has been a down year for Samuel. A meeting with the Rams is exactly what the doctor ordered for Deebo. The now-deleted tweet from the former all-pro receiver has added eyes to Samuel’s performance in 2024, but expect Samuel to maximize his touches tonight with a big play or two.
Matthew Stafford vs Brock Purdy
Since Week 11, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is one of three players with at least ten touchdown passes (10) and no interceptions, along with Sam Darnold (11) and Tua Tagovailoa (11).
Brock Purdy completed 20 of 25 pass attempts (80 percent) for 325 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and a 145.4 passer rating in Week 14, his sixth career game with a passer rating of 140 or higher, the most such games by a quarterback in his first three seasons in NFL history.
Both quarterbacks are coming off stellar performances, but the game will be decided by who makes more plays and protects the football.
The 49ers defensive line
Nick Bosa has a chance to return tonight following the best defensive line performance of the season against Chicago. Yetur Gross-Matos was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week. Leonard Floyd added two sacks and now leads the team in sacks in 2024. Floyd has his third straight “revenge game” following his meetings with Buffalo and Chicago.
Stafford is fifth in the NFL, operating from a clean pocket, but ranks 36th in EPA per dropback when under pressure (-0.50). The 49ers cannot allow Stafford to sit back and pick apart their secondary with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Both receivers accounted for 79.4% of the team’s receiving yards last week.
Red Zone Offense
The Rams rank 13th in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, with 57.14%. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 22nd in the NFL, at 52.94%. Over the last three weeks, the Rams and 49ers have been fifth and sixth in the NFL. Both teams finished with 83.33% last week but are 76.92% and 70% through the last three weeks.
The team that converts in the red zone will win tonight. It’s as simple as that.