From DK Metcalf’s return to where Brock Purdy attacks Seattle’s secondary, we highlight what to watch in Week 11
Week 11’s matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks has lost its usual luster after injuries crippled both teams during the first half of the season. We’ll see the best versions of each team this Sunday.
Coming off the bye week, the Niners were as healthy as they’ve been in Week 10. The offense got back its WR1 and best skill player. Jauan Jennings and Christian McCaffrey combined for 200 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Star wide receiver DK Metcalf was a full participant this week in practice after missing the previous two games with a knee injury. Right tackle Abe Lucas has a “realistic expectation at this point” that he’ll make his season debut this Sunday. He practiced before the bye week. The former third-round pick out of Washington State in 2022 underwent knee surgery in January after an ongoing knee issue that caused him to miss much of the 2023 season.
Seattle will also have two different starting linebackers from the previous matchup against San Francisco. Their center, Connor Williams, hasn’t practiced this week due to personal reasons. Williams has since retired.
Today is the Seahawks’ Super Bowl
Seattle and head coach Mike Macdonald get to press the reset button off their bye. You send a message when you cut your leading tackler the week you return from the bye.
It lets your players know that everybody’s job is on the line. Nothing will if that doesn’t get an all-in effort and full buy-in from a locker room.
Macdonald gets a third look at the Niners in less than a calendar year. Instead of getting Shanahan on a short week this time, the Seahawks have a week to prepare.
The changes Macdonald’s making on defense—specifically at linebacker—led to the Baltimore Ravens’ second-half ascension a year ago. Former Rams turned Titans linebacker Ernest Jones takes over for Tyrel Dodson.
Roquan Smith ain’t walking through that door, but Macdonald found his protege. Get familiar with the name Tyrice Knight. He’s in a position similar to Dre Greenlaw, a Day 3 rookie. Knight and Greenlaw share plenty of qualities, from their size to physicality to speed. Long-term, Seattle made the correct decision to part ways with Dodson.
A first-year head coach who has been successful everywhere, he’s just made his first power move and is off a bye week on the road in a must-win game if his team wants to keep their slim divisional hopes alive. The Seahawks are 0-2 in the NFC West. The 49ers are 1-2 in the divsion. One game separates each team in the loss column. If there was ever a situation for the Seahawks to throw the kitchen sink at somebody, it’s this week against the Niners after you just lost five of your last six games.
Was Week 10 a mirage for Brock Purdy?
Between Brock Purdy holding the ball and his offensive line getting beat in pass protection, Purdy has been pressured 38 percent of the time, the seventh-most in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks.
Brock’s average time to throw on the season is over 3.1 seconds. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, Purdy was blitzed at a higher rate than any team in the previous month. That led to few play-action shots, getting rid of the ball quicker, and only five attempts in the air further than 15 yards.
Through the first nine weeks of the season, Purdy was in the top 10 in attempts beyond 20 yards. The one constant with Purdy under center has been opposing defenses trying to speed him up with different pressure looks. Seattle actually blitzed at the lowest rate in Week 6 but managed to pressure Purdy on 50 percent of his dropbacks.
Shorter, rhythmic passes that require the quarterback to get the ball out on time are what got Purdy on track last week. The quick game allows Brock to play within himself while still giving him the freedom to scramble if that’s what the play calls for.
The Niners were ruthlessly efficient through the air, thanks to their quarterback’s ability to play through and under pressure. They’ll need the same from Purdy against a healthier Seahawks pass rush, which has already proved they could win upfront in Week 6.
Tyrice will have to wait to be Knighted
Each week, there’s a mark. Each week, there’s a player on the defense Shanahan identifies as the weak link that he can take advantage of. But without Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers haven’t targeted the middle of the field at the same volume they did during the previous 1.5 seasons with McCaffrey. Five of McCaffrey’s seven targets were over the middle and under ten yards.
I mentioned how Knight has a chance to be a special player for the Seahawks. While a Greenlaw future is in his cards, your first extended action in over a month is against an offense with continuous pre-snap movement, and you’re bound to be isolated against McCaffrey a handful of times after he has another week of confidence.
Knight is a gifted athlete with the suddenness and closing speed to run with most eligibles he’ll face. I don’t believe McCaffrey put the pedal to the medal when it came to reaching top speed last week. You saw his burst show up more as a receiver once CMC got a running start.
Every time somebody faces McCaffrey for the first time, they’re left shell-shocked. Sunday feels like a “Welcome to the NFL, Rookie” moment for Knight. He can potentially be an impact-run defender, which is why the move was made. But eye discipline is a concern for anybody facing the 49ers offense. It’s especially true when they’re a Day 3 rookie.
Defending the pass between the numbers has been problematic for Seattle all season, which is also why there’s been a change at linebacker. I’d expect Knight to get a heavy dosage of Shanahan’s eye candy, leading to a big day for McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall over the middle.
More Mason…already?
McCaffrey played 89 percent of the snaps in his first week back. General manager John Lynch said the other backs have earned touches based on their play this season.
In fairness, let’s pretend like Knight and Jones are upgrades. Even with improved health, the Seahawks rank 29th in adjusted line yards — a stat that measures how many yards an offensive line creates for the running back — and allow the second-most yards after contact.
One way to keep McCaffrey fresh is by relying on Jordan Mason, who was well on his way to 100 yards against the Seahawks in Week 6. He had 73 yards on nine carries in one half—Isaac Guerendo’s 76-yarder to close out the game.
There’s little to no evidence showing the Seahawks’ ability to slow the 49ers’ rushing attack during the Niners’ in-series winning streak.
Keeping Metcalf’s Miles to a Minimum
DK Metcalf’s first three games against the 49ers set the stage for what felt like could be a headache over the next four years. Metcalf Had 70, 81, and 161 yards with three touchdowns in his first three games against the Niners. But since then, Metcalf hasn’t surpassed the 70-yard mark in eight regular-season games since.
Charvarius Ward is the primary reason for that, but rookie cornerback Renardo Green passed his first test in Week 6 in extended action against Metcalf. Green was targeted 11 times in his first stint against Seattle. Three of those came against DK, with Green allowing one reception on a third down for a first down. He also picked Geno Smith off.
The 49ers have done a tremendous job at keeping Metcalf’s miles to a minimum, but the box score does not tell the full story of how the last game went.
On that interception, Metcalf broke his route upfield, hanging his quarterback out to dry. He also dropped a long pass and had a 70-yard touchdown called back. Oh, and a touchdown where he was pushed out of bounds in the end zone.
DK could’ve had a much bigger night, and that was on a short week. Now, he’s fully healthy, off a bye, and his quarterback has a right tackle to protect him.
I’m worried about today’s Metcalf matchup. Yes, Green has performed well—there’s no denying that. But there were enough coin-flip plays in Week 6 to be skeptical.
I’m also not sure the 49ers match up all that well with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who figures to have a more prominent role in the second half of the season. He beat Deommodore Lenoir on an option route for 19 yards last game and had seven receptions for 67 yards.
This will be the 49ers’ biggest defensive challenge since the last time they faced off against the Seahawks. What adjustments will we see from Nick Sorensen? Will the pass rush come to life? It could come down to turnovers, red zone stops, and timely sacks.