Taking a look at the best-case scenario for the 49ers in Week 14
We’ve been scoreboard-watching for the San Francisco 49ers for seven weeks now. First things first, the Niners need to beat the Chicago Bears. A loss today would end the playoff dream unless San Francisco wins out and then gets every bounce to go their way.
There are multiple clusters in the NFC. There are the “top” teams with eight or more wins. Those teams feel like they’re locks to make the postseason. The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and, dare I say, Washington Commanders — they’re on a bye this week and finish the season against the Saints, Eagles, Falcons, and Cowboys.
That means there’s one team left because the NFC South gets a spot. And unless the NFC West teams go on a run, we’re looking at one spot in the postseason there, too.
Here’s the best-case scenario for the 49ers today.
An NFC South debacle
Regardless of what happens in the NFC South, we should root against both teams for the remainder of the season. A month from now, we could be looking at both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons as eight-win teams.
The Falcons are on the road today against the Vikings. Minnesota is favored to win by six points. Much has been made about Kirk Cousins returning to Minnesota. If you watched him play last week, he should look into prices at retirement homes. But the Vikings have been going out of their way to lose games, so today is far from a guaranteed win for the Vikings.
Tampa Bay has an easier path to victory. They were fortunate to escape Carolina with a win last week. The Buccaneers host the Las Vegas Raiders today. Scoring won’t be an issue for Tampa Bay today, but slowing down Brock Bowers will. The rookie tight end has been sensational, but it will take a career day to pull off an upset.
Wild, Wild, West
In a “backs against the wall” game, Kyle Shanahan is at home against a rookie quarterback. Yes, it’s the No. 1 overall pick. But it’s also the week after they fired their head coach and against a team that might be the only team in the NFL to shoot itself in the foot more than the Niners this season.
Chicago hasn’t won a game on the road all season. It would be an embarrassing moment for the 49ers if that changed today. Again, anything discussed below is erroneous if the Niners cannot pull out a victory today.
The Rams offense is as healthy as they’ve been all season. They host the Buffalo Bills. Los Angeles is a short home underdog at +4. I don’t think they’ll struggle to move the ball. San Francisco didn’t a week ago, and the Rams are in better form offensively than the Niners. But stopping Josh Allen is easier said than done, and there’s no snow in SoFi to prevent Buffalo from throwing it all over the Rams — something most teams have had success doing. The Bills should win.
The Seahawks are 7-5. The Cardinals are 6-6. Seattle is 2-2 in the division, while Arizona is 2-1. Both teams are below .500 in the conference. San Francisco needs Seattle to lose three of its final five games, at least, to have a shot at the postseason. Ideally, two of those happen in their two remaining divisional contests.
However, it gets tricky when you look at the Cardinals’ schedule. A loss today isn’t the worst thing, as they play the Patriots and Panthers next. Still, Arizona finishes the season against the Rams and 49ers, and I don’t think they’ll win either of those games. So, it’s probably best that the Seahawks win today, but I’m not sure if either result will be the end of the world for the Niners.