Jake Moody has had a historic start to his NFL career. But it’s not one that’s worthy of keeping around
It’s standard practice in the National Football League – and professional sports in general – to use the draft to address a position with an aging player. A higher draft pick might be used depending on how highly an individual team values that position.
The Niners did just that a few years ago, replacing a 40-year-old veteran with a 24-year-old rookie. Heck, the 49ers felt this position was so important to replace they used a top-100 pick to make the change.
I think by now you know where I am going with this, but that top-100 selection on Jake Moody shouldn’t be held against the kicker, as that’s a 49ers issue. What Moody should be held accountable for, however, is his play after being drafted. His play alone is the reason the 49ers should look to move on this offseason.
It wasn’t a bad rookie season for Moody, who had more ups than downs, making 21-of-25 kicks and missing just one of 61 PATs. Moody’s 84.0 field goal percentage in 2023 ranked ninth-highest by a drafted rookie since 2005 of 23 qualified players (min. 25 field goal attempts). Something to note, however – and remember, we can’t hold Moody’s draft position against him – is Moody is the only kicker in the top 15 of that list to be taken within the first 100 selections.
But a top-ten rookie season at your position over the last 20 years isn’t too shabby. Unfortunately for Moody, things got very shabby in his second season. That 84.0 conversion rate crashed to 70.6, ranking 34th of 38 kickers. Moody had at least one miss in six games last season and at least two in three of those six games. Things got especially bad at the end of the season, with Moody making just six of his final 12 attempts.
Through the first 59 kicks of his career, Moody sits at 76.3 percent, which is good for fifth in 49ers franchise history – between David Akers and Wade Richey – of the ten kickers with at least 59 career kicks in the Red and Gold. But how does that percentage hold against the kickers of the last 20 years?
Well, not great.
Again, we are not holding the 49ers using a top-100 pick on Moody against him, but since 2005, there have been 32 drafted kickers to attempt at least 59 field goals. Six of the 32 were selected in the top 100, meaning approximately 81 percent of the list was taken with a pick later than the 99th pick Moody was selected. Of those 32 kickers, Moody’s 76.3 field goal conversion rate ranks 31st, with only Dave Rayner’s 72.2 percent behind him.
But that’s only a list of the 32 kickers drafted over the last 20 years. You would think Moody has to look better when the kickers who weren’t drafted are included. When the list expands to all kickers over the past 20 seasons with at least 59 field goal attempts regardless of draft status, it grows from 32 to 82. With that many kickers, Moody has to be higher on the list, right?
… Right?
Of the 82 kickers, Moody’s 76.3 percent ranks 81st, only above Dave Rayner.
If the 49ers drafted Moody only to be slightly better than Dave Rayner, then mission accomplished. But if they used that draft pick for him to be better than his predecessor, Robbie Gould, they would have fallen short of the mark.
So, how do the 49ers improve at the kicker position should they choose to move off of Moody? It doesn’t matter, so long as they don’t use a top-100 pick on his replacement.