Let’s overanalyze the 49ers draft before they have played a snap
The 49ers 2023 Draft class is officially in the books. Here’s a look at the 49ers final draft class:
- Round 3, Pick 87: Penn State Safety Ji’Ayir Brown
- Round 3, Pick 99: Michigan Kicker Jake Moody
- Round 3, Pick 101: Alabama Tight End Cameron Latu
- Round 5, Pick 155: South Alabama Cornerback Darrell Luter Jr
- Round 5, Pick 173: Georgia Edge Robert Beal, Jr.
- Round 6, Pick 216: TCU LB Dee Winters
- Round 7, Pick 247: Oklahoma Tight End Brayden Willis
- Round 7, Pick 253: Michigan Wide Receiver Ronnie Bell
- Round 7, Pick 255: Purdue Linebacker Jalen Graham
Oregon State LB/FB Jack Colleto
Washington C Corey Luciano
Texas DB D’Shawn Jamison
UTEP RB Ronald Awatt
Rutgers DB Avery Young
Hawaii OL Ilm Manning
Tulane WR Shae Wyatt
Shepherd OL Joey Fisher
Marshall RB Khalan Laborn
Minnesota LB Mariano Sori-Marin
Here’s your chance to put an initial grade on each player. I’ll add mine plus a brief explanation, and we can look back and make fun of this a year from now.
Set at tackle
The 49ers didn’t draft an offensive lineman this weekend. Kyle Shanahan said, “there wasn’t a fit. We would love to take an offensive lineman. Draft didn’t work out that way.” That was a vote of confidence from Shanahan for Colton McKivitz.
The message was that no lineman brought in would have been able to compete for a starting spot and would have had a difficult time beating out Jaylon Moore and Matt Pryor. San Francisco prioritized other positions, knowing that they had two three-year fifth-rounders and an experienced veteran at tackle.
They’ve had McKivitz and Moore in the building and have seen them practice. There are fewer projections, thus, making right tackle less of a “need” than those of us on the outside view right tackle as.
Moore has the athletic upside, while McKivitz is the “safe” pick. And if neither step up, Pryor is the fallback option with multiple years of starting experience.
Ji’Ayir Brown – B+
Brown didn’t time well in the 40, but that’s an antiquated way to evaluate a defensive back. In the same vein that allows Talanoa Hufanga to succeed, it’s more about angles, wasted steps with your footwork, and diagnosing what the offense is doing.
If you run a 4.4, but are slow to react, what good is your speed if you’re consistently a step late? Instincts and effort aren’t an issue in Brown’s game.
He’s a player who has the leadership and play-making qualities you look for in a safety. Saying that Brown will progress into an All-Pro like Hufanga isn’t fair, but I feel confident in saying that he’ll be an impact player and take advantage of the offense’s mistakes, just as Brown did at Penn State.
Brown was the best selection for the 49ers.
Jake Moody – D+
This is a valuation argument. Moody is an accurate kicker. Nobody is arguing against that. Judging by every scouting report, he was also the best kicker.
Seeing people cite kicking stats without context drives me insane. When you take a kicker in the third round, you’re expecting him to be consistently excellent. He has to hit from 20-40 at an obnoxious rate to justify the lofty draft status. I’m not giving Moody credit for making a 37-yard field goal. That’s expected.
During the past three seasons, Moody made 62 percent of his 27 attempts from 40 to 50 yards. That can’t happen at the next level. As for the valuation aspect, Moody has to be immensely better than the rest of his peers from long range.
If we’re going based off Brock Purdy’s starts, the offense was often inside their opponents’ 30-yard line. San Francisco was among the league leaders in yards per drive and drive success rate. So, in essence, you’re needing a kicker to hit “chip shots.”
Due to the offense’s success and how Moody wasn’t head and shoulders above the other kickers from 40 yards out, it’s difficult to get on board with the 49ers process. There’s a high probability that Moody will turn out to be a fantastic kicker. But with how they ended up at this pick, my grade says it all.
Cameron Latu – C-
I disagree with Shanahan’s assessment that there wasn’t an offensive lineman who fit or could challenge to start. Blake Freeland, Nick Saldiveri, and Keelee Ringo, among others, could all give the 49ers depth a run for its money at their respective positions. Each player was available at the time of Latu’s selection, and teams wound up trading up for these players in the fourth round.
Each player listed above has athletic upside, which you cannot say the same for Latu.
I advocate *not* drafting TE too early when you have a class with so many prospects who hit the marks for speed and elusiveness I’m looking for.
Only drafted TEs who didn’t hit the marks so far are Schoonmaker (low avoided tackles) and Latu pic.twitter.com/TvHFPHuHDq
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) April 29, 2023
When you put their numbers and production side-by-side, you’d come away thinking that Brayden Willis was the superior prospect.
You’ll see Latu’s drop percentage cited, but that doesn’t worry me. He has effective hands and doesn’t struggle to catch the ball with defenders around him. I’d categorize Latu’s drops as “focus” drops. Plus, Latu is an effective blocker who can play multiple positions.
Darrell Luter Jr. – B
If you take enough swings on high-level athletes who fit your prototype, your hit rate will be impressive. Luter Jr. has arm length in the 81st percentile, hand size in the 98th percentile, and a vertical jump in the 91st percentile.
Long arms and big hands are ideal for a press-man cornerback, while Luter Jr.’s vertical hints at an explosive athlete.
If he contributes right away on special teams, this pick is a B. If he gives the 49ers defensive snaps as a rookie, this grade will be higher when we look back a year from now.
During his post-draft media session, Luter Jr. had the type of confidence that you can’t help but appreciate. It wasn’t arrogance, but he was telling the local media members how he’s been overlooked in the recruiting process and even now, yet that hasn’t slowed him down.
Robert Beal Jr. – B
When I was watching Beal Jr., he seemed like a clone of what Samson Ebukam was for the 49ers. The athleticism was off the charts, the hustle was there, and you could see a pathway to Beal Jr. developing into a contributor.
John Lynch said Georgia’s head coach Kirby Smart told him “someone’s going to get a really gifted and talented player if they just let him [Beal Jr.] hunt quarterbacks and set edges.”
That’s what Ebukam brought to the table, and he took significant strides under Kris Kocurek. The Niners are hoping Beal Jr. can do the same.
Dee Winters – B
You can’t go wrong with defenders who can run. Winters plays with a level of aggression that screams the 49ers style. He brings more than just speed to the table, as Winters finished third among all linebackers in the draft in tackles for loss, pressures, and sacks per game. He was also fourth in pressure rate.
The best-case scenario for Winters is that he develops into your starting LB3. An ideal scenario is you have a special teams demon as a rookie. Winters was a better collegiate linebacker than the current options on the roster, so I’m optimistic he’ll continue to develop playing alongside Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.
Brayden Willis – B-
It’s tough to complain about a 7th rounder. Willis has a chance to outperform Latu, as stated above. He’s also just as versatile, as effective as a blocker, and may be better after the catch.
Willis led all tight ends in broken tackles forced per reception, per Sports Info Solutions, so he’ll fit right into what the 49ers want to do. His play speed is a question, which explains why his grade isn’t higher.
Ronnie Bell – B-
It doesn’t take long to realize why the 49ers invested a draft pick in Bell. He could provide similar production that the team received from Kendrick Bourne during his tenure with the Niners, or what Jauan Jennings has done.
He’s more explosive than Jennings, but they both use a change of tempo to get open to make up for their lack of a second gear. I think Bell is better than both Bourne and Jennings with the ball in his hands, and wouldn’t rule out him having an impact at some point during his rookie contract.
Jalen Graham – C
I don’t have a great grasp on Graham outside of what a scouting report would read. So, I’ll give a C. If you have thoughts or have watched Graham, feel free to share those in the comments with us as you explain your grade.
And, finally, a composite grade.
Team grade – B-
The 49ers did well for themselves. They added athletes, leaders, players who play with passion and effort, and prospects who will challenge the depth on the roster. That’s not easy to do when you don’t have a selection until pick No. 99 in the draft.