Red zone, corralling a rookie QB, and getting the offense right. Breaking down what to expect in the 49ers-Bears this week
Before the season started, I thought the two teams representing the NFC would be the San Francisco 49ers and the Chicago Bears.
The 49ers’ offseason was rocky, as multiple holdouts dominated the headlines. Still, the talent would eventually round into form as the Niners found their legs through the first half of what everyone viewed as a relatively easy schedule.
If I told you that San Francisco was last in the NFC West and two games below .500 heading into Week 14, you would have guessed the two best offensive players were out for the season, and the majority of the top 10 players on the roster had missed multiple games.
Kyle Shanahan has found himself with multiple 4th-quarter leads despite numerous injuries and tragedies. Lack of discipline and a comedy of errors in all three phases of the game have led to San Francisco scoring the sixth-fewest points in the final quarter this season with a -25 point differential. Good luck making the playoffs when you can’t get it done when the game is on the line.
Let’s look at the three areas that’ll decide Sunday’s contest.
Rolling out the red carpet in the red zone
The 49ers’ defense has been abysmal in the red zone lately.
Last week in the snow, the Bills scored touchdowns on all four of their red zone trips. Two weeks ago in Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers scored five touchdowns in five red zone trips. Three weeks ago, the Seattle Seahawks scored touchdowns on both of their red zone trips.
During the three-game losing streak, all 11 trips by opposing offenses have resulted in touchdowns.
Defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen was asked what the solution is, and his answer included coachspeak like “We’ve got to coach it better” and “We’ve got to execute better,” but he acknowledged that the 49ers’ situational defense has to be better.
The most concerning part is the number of trips the opposition has inside the 20. The Bears’ offense has been much more effective since they promoted Thomas Brown, but Chicago has been potent in the red area all year.
The Bears are scoring a touchdown at the fourth-highest clip in the red zone this season at approximately 2/3s of their trips. The Bears have made it inside their opponents’ 20 six times during the past three weeks and found the end zone on five of those trips.
The easiest way to prevent the Bears from scoring? Keep them out of the red zone. Since Brown was named the play-caller three weeks ago, it’s not as if the Bears turned into The Greatest Show on Turf. They are 13th in EPA per play and 15th in success rate.
The 49ers go from facing three of the better quarterbacks in the NFL to a rookie quarterback who has all the talent in the world but has been wildly inconsistent, especially early in the games.
A tale of two halves for the rookie
Last week, Caleb Williams’s first-half stat line read 5-15, 34 yards, 2.3 yards per attempt, and a 42.4 passer rating. The Bears didn’t score a point in five first-half possessions against the Lions and turned it over on downs on two of those drives.
Williams’s stats were much better in the first half against the Vikings, going 16-of-22 for 176 yards, but 70 of those came on two completions, and a 30-yarder was thanks to Williams beating an unblocked defender. Take away those plays, and Williams had 14 completions for 100 yards. Chicago punted on their first two drives, had a blocked field goal, and also went three-and-out in the first half.
Chicago scored ten points against Green Bay in the first half in an odd game where they only had three possessions all half. Another way to prevent them from scoring? Possess the ball.
It’s imperative for the 49ers to limit the Bears early because they get rolling as the game goes along. Williams finds his groove and settles in, and the Bears have little trouble moving the ball. In that Green Bay game a few weeks back, Chicago scored on three of its five possessions and missed a field goal that should have won the game. On the possession, they didn’t score; the Bears had the ball for seven minutes and somehow punted.
At home against the Vikings, the Bears turned the ball over on downs out of halftime. After two punts, they scored on the next three drives, but they went the wrong direction in overtime, and the Vikings went on to win the game.
Anyone who watched Thanksgiving football saw why Chicago was a preseason darling. After scoring touchdowns on their first two drives in the second half, they added another score before one of the most head-scratching drives to end the game.
If the 49ers want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they’ll need to get off the mat on offense because there’s little reason to believe they’ll slow down a Bears team that has the ingredients to move the ball at will against a defense that has shown no signs of resistance as of late and isn’t forcing turnovers.
It’s now or never, Shanahan
The previous three-week numbers for the 49ers offense are skewed because of a Brandon Allen start and inability to accomplish anything in the snow. So when you see the 49ers are 29th in EPA per play and success rate during this three-game losing streak, you can take that with a grain of salt. You’re not going to get much done when you’re rarely pushing the ball beyond ten yards.
These are not the ‘85 Bears defensively. During that same span and using those same stats from above, Chicago ranks 24th and 26th, respectively.
One reason to believe the 49ers’ offense can get going is the Bears’ inability to stop the run.
Detroit ran for 194 yards, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, and had seven rushes of at least ten yards. The Vikings ran for 124 yards and had four runs of 10+ yards. Aaron Jones had 79 yards after contact. And going back to that Packers game, they combined for four rushes of 10+ yards, gaining over 100 yards on the ground, with 81 of those coming after contact.
The tackling has been shotty, as Chicago has missed 25 combined tackles during the previous three games, per PFF. Isaac Guerendo is in a prime spot to break off a couple of long-ish runs.
The YAC Bros are no longer. The explosive plays have been few and far between, and the run-after-catch highlights seem like a distant memory. But Sunday has to be a Deebo Samuel game. Chicago is 31st in the NFL at defending WR2s.
Jordan Addison had a field day with 162 receiving yards, and T.J. Hockenson added 114 against Chicago. Kevin O’Connell comes from the Sean McVay/Shanahan tree and runs a similar offense. Green Bay had 141 yards after the catch on a day when Jordan Love threw for 261 yards.
Deebo has his best games against teams that live in zone coverage. The Bears are among the league leaders in Cover 3. They are one of five teams that run Cover 3 at least 40 percent of the time. It should allow Brock Purdy to find the soft spots at the intermediate level to Jauan Jennings and set Samuel up to get on track after he’s been non-existent. Also, zone-heavy teams allow the 49ers to get their screen game going and set up the type of gadget plays you can use with Samuel.
I think we see an offense that looks more like the one in the middle weeks of the season as opposed to the previous three. And once they get in the red zone, they’ll remember they have one of the best tight ends in the game. It’s a situation where it’s now or never for Shanahan, and that’s usually when he’s the sharpest, and the offense is at its best.
This should be a higher-scoring affair, and it will come down to which team doesn’t give up on itself in the final possessions of the game.