From heartbreaking losses to second-half performances, the 49ers and Bears have a lot in common during this 2024 season
When the schedule was released, the Chicago Bears vs. the San Francisco 49ers was an intriguing matchup. The Bears would start star USC quarterback Caleb Williams, and the offseason saw Chicago add Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift to complement D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. The 49ers were NFC favorites, and the matchup would be the NFC’s present and future in the eyes of many.
There is a reason the games have to be played, and through 13 weeks, neither team has reached their offseason expectations.
Chicago has been through a tumultuous season, with the organization moving on from its offensive coordinator to its head coach. Thomas Brown was promoted from offensive pass game coordinator to offensive coordinator to interim head coach.
The 49ers have experienced their share of adversity in 2024, from injuries to family tragedies and underperformance. Heading into the Week 14 matchup, there are some interesting parallels and differences between the two teams.
Heartbreaking losses
The Bears have lost six straight games. If that isn’t bad enough, let’s look at the circumstances. Week 8 was the infamous Hail Mary in Washington. The following two weeks were embarrassing losses to Arizona and New England. The next three weeks were a masterclass of finding new ways to lose games.
In Week 11, the Bears lost to Green Bay on a blocked field goal that would have won the game. In Week 12, the Bears lose in overtime on a game-winning field goal to the Vikings. Last week, Matt Eberflus failed to call a timeout with 30-plus seconds left to drop their Thanksgiving meeting with Detroit. Matt Eberflus was fired immediately.
As for the 49ers, the reigning NFC champions have blown three divisional games in which they held leads in the fourth quarter. Of the seven losses for the 49ers, the last two have been absolute blowouts. Chicago and San Francisco have found creative ways to give games away in 2024.
Second half performances
After Shane Waldron was relieved of his duties, Brown took over as offensive coordinator, and the offense took steps forward immediately. Since Brown took over, the Bears have a league-high 22 third-down conversions and have scored the third most points in the second half with 46. Brown has been in charge of the offense for three weeks.
The 49ers have scored 37 points over the last three weeks. That’s over 12 quarters. On third-down, the 49ers have 13 conversions. Yes, Brock Purdy missed the Green Bay game and the Buffalo game was a snow game, but the two offenses are trending in opposite directions during these three weeks.
Red Zone Efficiency
On the season, Chicago is tied for third in red zone touchdown percentage with Tampa Bay and Buffalo with 66.67%. Looking at the latest three-week stretch, Chicago owns a sparkling 83.33% in the red zone. Keenan Allen has come alive lately with D.J. Moore as a target hog for this offense. Williams has played much better since the change to coordinators, especially in the red zone.
The 49ers sit 27th in the NFL with a 48.89%, sandwiched between Tennessee and Las Vegas. Over the last three weeks, the team has seen an uptick with 57.14%, but that is still far below the standard for a team with weapons and a top play-caller. San Francisco’s red zone numbers increase on the road, from 52.63% to 46.15% at home. Chicago is better away, also with 75% to 60% at home. Sunday’s game is at Levi’s.
Scoring Defense
Chicago has a stout defense. Through 13 weeks, the Bears have allowed 20 points per game, but the last three weeks have seen an increase to 24.3 points per game as the defensive line hasn’t performed to expectations. Chicago’s scoring defense is tied with Green Bay for ninth in the NFL.
The 49ers’ defense has allowed 31 points per game in the last three weeks, which is third worst in the NFL during that span. On the season, the team is 24th in the NFL, allowing 24.6 points per game. The injuries to the defense can’t be discounted, with Nick Bosa, Deommodore Lenoir, and others missing action, but the 49ers’ defense has disappointed in 2024.
Turnover Margin
Turnovers are massive for momentum and ending drives. Last season, the 49ers were great at taking the ball away. In 2024, the team is tied with the Jets at number 20 with a -0.3 turnover margin. Conversely, Chicago is 4th in the NFL with a +0.8 turnover margin. Bottom line, when the 49ers win the turnover battle, they win. That goes for any team, but when the team ties or loses the turnover battle, the 49ers lose. The 49ers defense needs to take the ball away and the offense needs to protect the ball.