Looking at a few overreactions from the San Francisco 49ers’ loss to the Seattle Seahawks and tying it into the rest of the season
Monday’s are meant for overreactions. After a win, we often ignore the miscues because the San Francisco 49ers won on the scoreboard. But the day after a loss, somebody has to be fired. A coach or a player needs to be held accountable.
What overreactions do we have for this week? Let’s talk playoffs, coaching, and each side of the ball.
The 49ers season is over, and it’s time to let the young guys play
The playoff odds for the 49ers predictably dipped after falling to 5-5. However, suggesting the season is over ignores not only history but also the state of the NFC.
The product in the NFL has been lackluster this year. In the NFC, over half the teams are either .500 or worse. Somehow, the 49ers are sixth in point-differential at +28. While this isn’t the same team from years past, I wouldn’t count San Francisco out just yet.
The 49ers’ next two games are on the road and come against two teams that are a combined 16-5. So if the 49ers return from the road trip 5-7, then stick a fork in them. Did you watch Green Bay against Chicago on Sunday?
Jordan Love wants to throw the ball to the other team. Speaking of the Bears, they’re on the schedule three weeks from now and allowed the Packers to gain over eight yards per play. The Rams, Dolphins, and Cardinals are all must-win. Each of those defenses is below average.
Escaping this two-game road stretch with a victory puts the 49ers in a position to win the NFC West, which is the easiest path to the playoffs. Going 0-2 ends any playoff hopes, barring a perfect December and January. Still, the 49ers season is far from finished, and I think there’s a better chance this team will reach ten wins than finish .500.
I think the 49ers will find a way to sneak into the playoffs.
Verdict: Overreaction
The offense will figure it out in the second half
The scoring at home has been underwhelming — 17, 30, 18, 23. That’s how many points the 49ers have scored at home during their previous five games, and the 30 burger came against the Dallas Cowboys, so let’s draw a red line through that score.
The 49ers are 26th in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage. It hasn’t turned around yet, so I’m reluctant to assume that’ll change after a 10-game sample size. The explosive plays we saw against Tampa Bay were non-existent against Seattle.
So, which game do we believe the 49ers to be moving forward? The Week 11 offense with 146 passing yards and one play over 20 yards, or the Week 10 offense with 338 passing yards and five separate receivers have receptions of at least 30 yards? The answer is somewhere in the middle, but I lean toward the latter.
Give the Seahawks credit for limiting the 49ers’ playmakers. It’s difficult for other teams to duplicate what we saw this past Sunday. It helps that Seattle didn’t have to deal with the tight end who has 56 catches, 808 yards, and seven touchdowns in his career against the Seahawks. It’ll help if that tight end is on the field for every game moving forward.
Since Week 5, the 49ers are inside the top ten in EPA per play and success rate. They can’t afford to play any more games without Kittle. Kyle Shanahan must find ways to incorporate the likes of Ricky Pearsall and Jordan Mason into the offense.
Deebo Samuel had an off game against Seattle but had at least 60 yards receiving in the previous three games. He’s their explosive playmaker. Deebo had receptions of 32, 47, and 76 in each of those three games. San Francisco needs its $71 million receiver to have at least one impact play a game.
There isn’t much the 49ers offense needs to figure out, as they’ve been in the upper echelon of the NFL all season. But, as Trent Williams said, scoring 17 points in a game isn’t going to cut it.
Verdict: Not an overreaction.
Kyle Shanahan will be the reason why the 49ers miss the playoffs
You can’t acknowledge how dominant the 49ers’ second half record has been in the previous three seasons, and then turn around and discredit one of the only constants during that time.
Shanahan isn’t without his faults. Discipline issues are at an all-time high this year. Play-calling in the red zone leaves plenty to be desired. And clock management at the end of halves will forever be questionable.
That said, Shanahan remains an elite play-caller, and there isn’t a game where the 49ers aren’t competitive. After the game on Sunday, Shanahan said he was “extremely disappointed” after he felt like the Niners had several chances throughout the game to put Seattle away. He also acknowledged Sunday’s result is what happens when you let teams hang around.
San Francisco hasn’t put any team away this season. Dallas nearly came back in Week 8. The same can be said for Seattle in Week 6. The 49ers haven’t beaten a team with a winning record. But whether it’s Week 11, 7, 5, or 4, I’ve never come away from a game thinking, “Wow, this team is doomed under Shanahan.”
The players have to perform. Shanahan isn’t the one committing holding penalties, jumping offsides, airmailing throws, or jumping for an interception on 3rd & long when you’re five yards away from the ball.
The 49ers do not have a coaching issue.
Verdict: Overreaction
The 49ers defense will be the reason they make the playoffs
During his postgame presser, Shanahan said, “I thought our defense played great all game until that last drive.”
The defense was fourth in EPA per play and tenth in success rate in the first three quarters of this season. However, they fell to 24th and 26th in the fourth quarter in those same metrics. Whether that’s being tired, lacking focus, or all of the above, it’s concerning.
The missed tackles and effort are shoddy when it matters the most. Geno Smith is a great player, but you cannot let him or anybody else run all over you when the game is on the line—not in crucial moments like we saw Sunday.
How much of what we saw can be attributed to not having Nick Bosa or Charvarius Ward on the field? Quite a bit. It’s evident that Nick Sorensen does not run the same exotic coverages or looks without two of his three best players.
I still believe that the 49ers have one of the better defenses in the NFL. They’ll have to be against Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Kyler Murray. If the 49ers keep their fourth-quarter defensive habits up, a .500 record seems optimistic. But through three quarters, they’re superb. Bosa and Mooney should make a difference, and only the last two opponents on the schedule have offensive lines to compete against the Niners.
If we’re talking about San Francisco in the Wild Card round, it’ll be due to the defense.
Verdict: Not an overreaction