Nick Bosa’s return will give the 49ers a much-needed defensive boost
Death. Taxes. The San Francisco 49ers beating the Los Angeles Rams in the regular season.
Just two years ago, those three seemed to be the only certainties in life. Then the Rams just had to start Carson Wentz, and things haven’t been the same since.
After winning nine straight regular-season matchups against the Southern California rivals, the 49ers have dropped back-to-back games to the Rams. The Week 18 loss to Wentz could be chalked up to backups playing, but the Week 3 loss in Los Angeles this year is much more difficult to write off.
San Francisco had a 14-point lead in the third quarter and a 10-point lead with 11:57 left in the game before the Rams scored 13 unanswered points to win 27-24.
That Week 3 loss set the tone for the 49ers regular season. Week 15 against the Rams could decide the postseason fate of the 49ers. Here are the three numbers to know before Thursday night’s NFC West clash.
221
Matthew Stafford threw for 221 yards in the Rams Week 3 win over the 49ers.
It wasn’t Stafford’s best performance – 16-for-25 with the 221 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions – but two important notes from it: the Rams were without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and it was enough for the Rams to pick up the victory.
Stafford will have Kupp and Nacua on Thursday, which should concern the 49ers’ defense.
While the 49ers have somewhat gotten used to Kupp – who’s been with the Rams since 2017 – but with Nacua in his second year, San Francisco doesn’t have much experience with him. As a matter of fact, Thursday will be the first time the 49ers will face both Kupp and Nacua in the same game.
The 49ers missed Kupp in both meetings in 2023, but Nacua proved enough for the Rams. In just his second career game, Nacua torched the San Francisco defense with 147 yards on 15 receptions in the Rams’ 30-23 loss in Week 2. Nacua didn’t have the same success when the two teams met again in Week 18 – four receptions for 41 yards and a touchdown – but that was with Carson Wentz at quarterback and not Stafford.
Stafford has thrown for fewer than 221 yards in three games this season. Those games were:
- Week 2 at Arizona (No Kupp but with Nacua)
- Week 7 versus Las Vegas (No Kupp or Nacua)
- Week 13 at New Orleans (had both Kupp and Nacua)
It should go without saying that the Rams’ offense will be better with Kupp and Nacua on Thursday than in September when the 49ers last played Los Angeles.
Something for the 49ers’ defense to remember, though – specifically the pass rush – the Rams are 1-5 when Stafford is sacked three or more times and 6-1 when he’s sacked two or fewer times. The lone win when Stafford was sacked at least three times? Week 3 against the 49ers.
50
The Rams’ defense has allowed a touchdown on 50 percent of red zone drives, tied for the eighth-best percentage in the league.
It’s a literal coin toss against the Los Angeles defense once an opposing offense reaches the final fifth of the field. About a month ago, it would have felt like going into Thursday; the 49ers would have lost that coin flip plenty of times. But since the 49ers bye week, the red zone offense has improved.
It still doesn’t look pretty over the entirety of the season. San Francisco is ranked 11th, scoring a touchdown on 52.3 percent of trips to the red zone. That’s much better than six weeks ago when the 49ers’ offense was in the bottom three in red zone efficiency.
But slowly but surely, San Francisco has improved. It started by converting on three of six red zone visits against Tampa Bay and Seattle. San Francisco followed by scoring a touchdown on 100 percent of red zone trips in the loss to Green Bay. Okay, San Francisco only went to the red zone once against the Packers, but Brandon Allen connected with George Kittle for a touchdown on that one trip.
The 49ers followed Green Bay by converting in the red zone once in three trips in a snowy Buffalo before exploding with five red zone touchdowns in six trips on Sunday against Chicago.
Before San Francisco’s bye, the 49ers were 17-for-35 (48.6 percent) in the red zone. In the five games since the bye, the 49ers are 10-for-16 (62.5) in the red zone.
The Rams’ defense has struggled this season, just as the 49ers’ offense has. But there are signs that the San Francisco offense could be turning a corner, and recent red zone success is one.
7
The 49ers have a seven percent chance to make the postseason, according to NFL.com’s playoff picture.
Entering the 49ers’ game against the Bears, that number was eight percent. The win against Chicago was supposed to raise San Francisco’s percentage to ten percent, but with Seattle taking care of business against the Cardinals to stay two games ahead of the 49ers and the Rams upsetting the Bills, the path got tougher, not easier.
Things are much more dire for the 49ers on Thursday against the Rams than they were against the Bears. A shocking loss last week to the Bears would have dropped to two percent, which is not great, but still, a number that isn’t zero.
A loss on Thursday would drop San Francisco’s playoff probability to less than one percent. That’s not zero, and it would give the 49ers the slimmest of margins to make the postseason, but suffice it to say that a loss to the Rams would kill any real playoff hopes the 49ers may have left over.
The 49ers blowing that 14-point lead to the Rams back in Week 3 was the loss that seemingly triggered San Francisco’s bad luck this season, so maybe Thursday night will be the exorcism the 49ers need to cast that bad mojo away and bring in some luck towards the postseason.