The 49ers have a major divisional matchup on their hands in primetime.
The San Francisco 49ers are set to take on the Los Angeles Rams in a major game between divisional rivals on Thursday night, with kickoff set for 5:15 p.m. at Levi’s Stadium.
The 49ers are coming off a 38-13 victory over the Chicago Bears where they put together their best collective performance of the season, improving to 6-7 on the year.
Now, they face a Los Angeles team that has gone 6-2 in their last eight games after a sluggish start, with star wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua both playing at a high level alongside quarterback Matthew Stafford.
San Francisco comes into this game down two starters, as left tackle Trent Williams will miss his fourth consecutive game, while safety Malik Mustapha will sit due to chest and shoulder injuries.
What’s the formula to success for the 49ers against Los Angeles on Thursday?
Fast Start
San Francisco got out to a scorching start against the Bears last weekend, pouring in 24 points in the first half, as they put points up on three of their four possessions over the first 30 minutes.
Moreover, they were stout defensively, holding Chicago to just four yards in the first half a week ago. That provided a comfortable enough safety blanket to erase any doubt of a second-half collapse, which the 49ers have seen on numerous occasions this season, including in their Week 3 loss to the Rams.
In that game, San Francisco started hot with consecutive touchdowns, but had a missed opportunity on their third drive with Brock Purdy trying to find Brandon Aiyuk and extend the drive in Los Angeles territory on a 3rd & 4 at the 49ers 40-yard line. That led to a 16-play, 87-yard touchdown drive from the Rams, keeping the score at a one-possession game.
Purdy then fumbled on the subsequent drive with the 49ers executing a two-minute drill, getting to the Rams 40-yard line, killing another opportunity and keeping the score at just 14-7 heading into halftime.
The 49ers had a healthy 21-7 lead following a touchdown on their opening possession of the second half, but a field goal in the red zone and a missed field goal on back-to-back possessions brought the Rams all the way back where they eventually kicked a go-ahead field goal to win the game.
San Francisco needs to find a way to play good football for four quarters. But, there hasn’t been enough of a sample size for them doing that this year. Starting games fast, especially one against this Rams team, would be a major way to alleviating some of those second-half concerns.
Stop the run
Stopping the run has been a key in essentially every 49ers game this season; the team wins when they do so effectively and loses when they struggle to.
The 49ers have allowed just 71.2 rushing yards per game in their six wins, which was seen last weekend, as Chicago ran for just 68 yards on the afternoon. But, they’ve allowed upwards of 150 rushing yards per game in their seven losses.
The Rams don’t have the most effective run game. They rank 25th in the NFL with 103 rushing yards per game and average just four yards per carry. Star back Kyren Williams has seen significant usage this year, ranking 2nd in the NFL with 251 carries, which has led him to go for 1,013 yards and 12 touchdowns this year.
Still, he rushes for just four yards per carry and has only two rushes of 20+ yards on the year. He’s also lost three fumbles this season, which could be an avenue of opportunity for the 49ers.
San Francisco usually doesn’t fare that well against teams that rush at a high volume, and Williams has earned at least 15 carries in all but one appearance this season, topping the 20-carry mark six times, including a season-high 29 carries last weekend against Buffalo.
If the Rams are able to rush with high volume on Thursday, it could be difficult for the 49ers to contain. But, if San Francisco can effectively stop the run early and get off to a fast start, it might make the Rams more one-dimensional.
Third downs
Getting off the field on third downs has been an issue at times for the 49ers this season, as they currently rank 27th in the NFL, allowing opponents to convert 43.9 percent of their third downs.
However, the Rams aren’t much better defensively, ranking 20th as they allow opponents to convert 40.7 percent of their third downs. Moreover, Los Angeles has seen a major uptick over their last three games, allowing teams to convert 48.7 percent of their third downs, so a window of opportunity is there.
Where the 49ers stand out, however, is their third down offense. San Francisco ranks seventh in the NFL, converting 43.7 percent of their third downs. But, that number has dropped to 37.5 percent over their last three games, more so due to their lack of an offense against both the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills.
Los Angeles doesn’t have as good of a third-down offense, converting just 36.7 percent of their opportunities into first downs, although they’ve seen a significant uptick in their last three appearances, bumping that rate up to 46.8 percent.
In a divisional game where both teams are familiar with each other, the 49ers will need to find a way to beat the Rams in the third down department, keeping the game at their pace.
The numbers seem fairly even on both sides when accounting for recent trends, so this battle could very well be a determining factor on Thursday.