Taking a look at the differences in one category between the 49ers and the Lions
Monday night’s matchup between Detroit and San Francisco was imagined as a Week 17 battle for the NFC’s number one seed and a rematch of the NFC Championship game in Santa Clara. It is a rematch of the epic NFC title game, but both teams are on opposite sides of the NFC. The 49ers are eliminated from playoff contention, and the Lions have two losses on the season to Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Minnesota fans will be pulling for a 49ers upset on Monday as both teams are locked in a tight division race at 13-2, but Detroit is a heavy favorite, and rightfully so.
Let’s look at some interesting trends and numbers before Monday’s matchup.
Trading places
Last season, the 49ers offense was a juggernaut. Christian McCaffrey won Offensive Player of the Year, Brock Purdy was an MVP candidate, Brandon Aiyuk blossomed into a true “X” receiver, and the 49ers scored at will.
Detroit, under Ben Johnson as the play-caller, was an upstart offense with David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon Ra St. Brown, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta.
The similarities in efficiency between the two teams from last season to 2024 are striking.
2023
1. 49ers – 0.15 EPA/Play, 49.8% Success Rate, 0.04 EPA/Rush, 0.28 EPA/Pass.
6. Lions – 0.05 EPA/Play, 45.2% Success Rate, -0.04 EPA/Rush, 0.12 EPA/Pass
2024
3. Lions – 0.15 EPA/Play, 49% Success Rate, 0.02 EPA/Rush, 0.28 EPA/Pass.
11. 49ers – 0.05 EPA/Play, 44.6% Success Rate, -0.01 EPA/Rush, 0.1 EPA/Pass
The two teams have flip-flopped in EPA/play. The only change is that the 0.15 EPA/Play rate was number one for the 49ers in 2023, while that mark is good for third in the NFL, behind Baltimore and Buffalo in 2024 for Detroit. It’s been a role reversal for Detroit and San Francisco.
The 49ers aren’t the only team with injuries
Detroit’s loss of Aidan Hutchinson is difficult to overcome. However, under Aaron Glenn as defensive coordinator, the Lions’ defense has improved significantly. Following a solid draft with additions to the secondary, the team has jumped nearly 15 spots in defensive metrics.
2023 – 18. Lions: -0.03 EPA/Play, 42.5% Success Rate, -0.12 EPA/Rush, 0.02 EPA/Pass
2024 – 5. Lions: -0.07 EPA/Play, 41.1% Success Rate, -0.05 EPA/Rush, -0.09 EPA/Pass
While taking a step back against the run, the Lions have turned up the pass defense in 2024. Both Johnson and Glenn figure to be hot head coaching candidates this offseason.
Average Scoring Margin
The 49ers finished third in the NFL in 2023 in average scoring margin, with a +9.8 mark behind Baltimore and Dallas. Detroit finished eighth, with a +3.6 mark behind New Orleans and just ahead of Green Bay.
Detroit has had multiple 40- and 50-point scoring games in 2024. The Lions’ scoring margin is a whopping +12.9, well ahead of Buffalo’s +9.2 mark. Meanwhile, the 49ers have dropped to 17th with a scoring margin of -1.2.
On the road, the 49ers scoring margin is -8.4, and the Lions have a robust +12.4 scoring margin at home.