In what has so far proven itself to be one of the best rookie classes in recent memory, the quintet of Chet Holmgren, Jaime Jaquez Jr, Brandon Miller, Brandin Podziemski, and Victor Wembanyama, carry high expectations heading into their second year in the league. While every player’s career trajectory is clearly pointing upwards, which player is most poised for a second-year leap? Which player can challenge for their first All-Star appearance? Which player can help push their team towards a playoff spot, or perhaps even towards contention? Below is a list of what to expect from some of the best second-year players heading into next season.
What to Expect From All-Rookie First Teamers in Year 2
Chet Holmgren
Chet Holmgren missed the entirety of what would’ve been his rookie season in 2022-2023. Regardless Chet made his presence known early and often during the 2023-2024 season. Chet’s averages of 16.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg, and 2.4 apg, were not quite enough to keep pace with Victor Wembanyama’s ROY case. However, they were enough to firmly cement him as a core foundation piece in Oklahoma City. Throughout Holmgren’s rookie campaign, he routinely made plays that no other player his size—save Wembanyama perhaps—is capable of. In addition, he did all this while putting all prior injury concerns to rest, playing and starting in all 82 regular season games.
In year two look for Chet Holmgren to remain an integral part of a team that is sure to challenge for the top overall seed in the Western Conference. While Holmgren is undoubtedly still improving at a rapid pace, don’t count on his numbers to jump to astronomical levels. Holmgren’s volume and usage are sure to increase incrementally. However, he is still pretty clearly the third scoring option on his own team, behind Jalen Williams, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Holmgren could and should challenge for a spot on the Western Conference All-Star team next year. Chet could also earn a spot on one of the All-Defense teams, just don’t expect his counting numbers to leap off the page.
Jaime Jaquez Jr
When the Heat selected four-year college player Jaime Jaquez Jr with the 18th pick of the 2023 NBA Draft, the general consensus was that it was a bit of a reach. Fast forward to now, and it is a genuine mystery how he fell to pick 18. Jaime Jaquez wasted no time in asserting himself within the Heat’s regular rotation. Jaquez showed time and time again how his added experience from playing four years of college basketball had expertly prepared him for a large and immediate role in the NBA. Jaquez isn’t necessarily elite at one specific skill. Nevertheless, his well-rounded game still allows him to be a genuine difference-maker.
It is a genuine curiosity how much more untapped potential still remains within 23-year-old Jaime Jaquez Jr. With that being said, it feels fairly safe to assume that Jaquez will handle a relatively similar workload in year two as he did in year one. It is still unclear whether Jaquez will persist in a bench role or be asserted into the starting five. But the expectation should be that Jaquez will play a ton of minutes either way for Coach Erik Spoelstra. If Jaquez continues being used as an offensive hub off the bench, he should be considered for the Sixth Man of the Year Award. After finishing in the top 10 for that award as a rookie, look for Jaquez to make a compelling case to bring home the hardwood in year two.
Brandon Miller
Much was made of the Hornets’ decision to select Brandon Miller instead of Scoot Henderson with the second overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. The Miller vs. Henderson debate surely has many more chapters to be written. Regardless, Charlotte has to feel good about the early results. Miller was originally viewed as more of a 3-D prospect. However, he got the chance to show off his playmaking abilities a great deal during his rookie year. LaMelo Ball, who missed the majority of last year, will likely reclaim the lion’s share of playmaking responsibilities next year. Nevertheless, it is encouraging for the Hornets to know that Miller is a more capable offense initiator than originally expected.
Of all the players on this list, Miller is the only one playing on a team with no expectations. In Charlotte, there just isn’t a ton of established talent surrounding Miller—other than LaMelo Ball. As a result, I expect Miller’s numbers to take a significant leap in year two. Don’t be shocked if Miller cracks 20.0 ppg, while maintaining shooting splits that are as easy on the eyes as the ones he displayed as a rookie, 44.0/37.3/82.7. While it would be shocking if Miller generates any sort of palpable All-Star buzz as he is still more than likely to be overshadowed by LaMelo Ball. That, and the Hornets are likely to be bottom dwellers once again. Regardless, Miller has a promising season ahead of him.
Brandin Podziemski
Just as the Heat’s selection of Jaquez was originally met with a fair amount of head-scratching, so too was the Warriors’ selection of Brandin Podziemski just one pick later. All Podziemski did in return was supplant franchise legend Klay Thompson in the starting lineup. Podziemski proved to be an irreplaceable part of Head Coach Steve Kerr’s rotation. Standing at just 6-foot-4 Podziemski also unexpectedly asserted himself as one of the best rebounders on the team, constantly creating second-chance points with offensive rebounds. Add in a steady outside stroke (38.5%), and Podziemski looked like a certified gamer throughout his rookie season.
All signs point towards the Warriors handing Brandon Podziemski a sizable workload during his second season. From Klay Thompson’s departure to multiple reports claiming that the Warriors refused to include Podziemski in any potential Lauri Markkanen trade, it’s clear the Warriors have big plans for the former Santa Clara standout. The Warriors don’t really have a second star currently. It’s clear they are banking on the idea of Podziemski developing into something reminiscent of a number two option. Further evidence of this thinking can be found in a recent quote from Podziemski himself,
“They want me to take anywhere (from) eight to 10 per game. That’s what they told me. All different types: off dribble handoffs, off ball screens, catch-and-shoot”.
This quote is in reference to Podziemski expanding his 3PT arsenal. In my best estimation, it does shed some light on what to expect next year. Look for Podziemski—not Jonathan Kuminga, or Andrew Wiggins, or Buddy Hield, to be the Warriors’ second-leading scorer, and secondary creator. The Warriors will be a tough and gritty team, more than likely headed for the play-in tournament. Podziemski will certainly be one of their most important players.
Victor Wembanyama
While Victor Wembanyama didn’t find his way onto the All-Star team or any of the All-NBA teams during his rookie season he had a stellar rookie season. Victor Wembanyama just had an absolute all-timer of a rookie season. Gaudy averages of 21.4 ppg, 10.6 rpg, and 3.9 apg—in just 29.7 mpg—are ridiculous for any player, let alone a rookie. What’s more, Wembanyama is one of the more impactful defenders in the league. Notably, Wemby finished second in DPOY last season. His 3.6 bpg and 1.2 spg speak for themselves. The countless clips of high-level NBA players passing up shots because of his mere presence also show his incredible defensive impact. Furthermore, the Spurs had a top-three defense with Wemby on the court. Overall, Victor Wembanyama just had the best rookie season we’ve seen in well over a decade, if not more.
Expect Wembanyama’s ridiculous rookie numbers to grow by leaps and bounds. Additionally, he will likely improve his efficiency—the one true blemish from his rookie season. If Wembanyama isn’t an All-Star Starter, and a member of one of the All-NBA Teams, something must have gone wrong.
The Spurs are more than likely going to continue their slow rebuild, while not skipping steps. As a result, it’ll be tough for them to stay below the play-in mix without severely handicapping Wembanyama. Wembanyama is ready to compete for championships now. His performance for team France team over the summer including going toe to toe with Team USA in the gold medal game was evidence of that. The rest of the Spurs organization, however, is still likely at least a year or two away from being ready to contend against the other elites in the NBA.
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