Since the 1980-1981 NBA season, the “media” has voted on major league awards. Before that, the players voted on it. Interestingly enough, the players did not do a better job than the media has. Some would argue they got it wrong more often than the media. However, when looking back on award winners, it is harder to argue/dispute decisions during the player-voting era. This is because they are on the court day in and day out. In the era of media voting, a clear pattern has emerged: Players do not win the NBA MVP award three years in a row, even if they deserve it. It is an unwritten rule amongst the voters that needs to be called out.
The Rule of Three: NBA MVP Award Voters Unwritten Rule
Exception
Since the 1980-1981 season, only one player has won the league MVP three years in a row: Larry Bird. This happened from 1983-1984 – 1985-1986. This goes against the previously established unwritten rule. However, this occurred only once in the media voting era. Also, it occurred early on in the era of media award voting, before this pattern took shape.
Two-Time MVP Winners
Plenty of players have won it twice in a row but failed to capture it for the third time in a row. Many of these guys did not deserve it three times in a row, marking good decision-making by the voters. Instances of this happening include Moses Malone, Tim Duncan, Stephen Curry, and others.
The Pattern of NBA MVP Voting
Despite the previously mentioned successful voting choices, voters seemingly allowed fatigue (the unwritten rule) to rob a player of his rightful third MVP in a row on three occasions. The first was Michael Jordan in 1992-1993, the second was LeBron James in 2010-2011, and the third was Nikola Jokic in 2022-2023.
Michael Jordan
Jordan was robbed of MVP many times throughout his career, especially in the late 1980s. In 1992-1993, voters had a lot of fuel to not vote for Jordan. He was coming off of back-to-back league MVPs, back-to-back championships, and back-to-back Finals MVPs. Jordan would go on to win another championship and Finals MVP in 1992-1993. This time, the league MVP would go to someone else.
| Rank | Player |
| 1 | |
| 2 | |
| 3 | Michael Jordan |
| 4 | Patrick Ewing |
| 5 |
1992-93 NBA MVP Voting Table via Basketball-Reference.
Michael Jordan led the league in points and steals per game, win shares, player efficiency rating (PER), box plus/minus, value over replacement player (VORP), and usage percentage. In many of these categories, he led by a fairly wide margin (especially the more advanced/player value metrics). Barkley had him beat in rebounds per game and field goal percentages, which is expected given their positions on the court. They were about even in blocks and assists per game.
| Deserved MVP Placing |
Player |
| 1 |
Michael Jordan
|
| 2 |
Hakeem Olajuwon
|
| 3 | Karl Malone |
| 4 |
Charles Barkley
|
| 5 |
David Robinson
|
LeBron James
LeBron shook the entire basketball world when he decided to go to the Miami Heat in 2010. However, this 2010-2011 season is most remembered for the Mavericks’ miraculous championship over LeBron’s Heat, and MVP Derrick Rose. The term “Prime D Rose” has become something of an internet phenomenon over the years. This is due to how electric/fun to watch he was in his prime, particularly this season. It has also garnered significant buzz because of how tragically his career ended up, and the potential fans only got a glimpse of. The narrative for Rose’s 2010-2011 MVP season is arguably the greatest the league has ever witnessed. As much as it pains me to say, Derrick Rose did not deserve this MVP.
| Rank | Player |
| 1 | Derrick Rose |
| 2 | |
| 3 | LeBron James |
| 4 | Kobe Bryant |
| 5 | Kevin Durant |
2010-11 NBA MVP Voting Table via Basketball-Reference.
In 2010-2011, LeBron was not as obvious of a choice as Jordan was in the previous paragraph. When you look at all metrics, he is the most balanced. When comparing him and Rose, it is pretty close in many aspects. However, LeBron beats him in almost all those aspects. LeBron beats him in points, rebounds, and steals per game. They are pretty much even in three-point shooting, assists per game, and blocks per game. LeBron has him beat in pretty much every advanced/player value metric, although it is usually somewhat close. An area where LeBron has a significant advantage over Rose is field goal percentages. After this season, LeBron would go on to win MVP the next two seasons. The story of Derrick Rose helped make giving him the award easier in the public eye.
| Deserved MVP Placing |
Player |
| 1 |
LeBron James
|
| 2 |
Dwight Howard
|
| 3 | Derrick Rose |
| 4 |
Dwyane Wade
|
| 5 | Kevin Durant |
Nikola Jokic
In 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, Jokic was an efficiency/advanced metric machine. He was awarded MVP for these two seasons. In 2022-2023, Jokic did pretty much the same thing. Like the previous two seasons, he deserved the MVP. Like the previous two cases of the unwritten rule, he would not get it.
| Rank | Player |
| 1 | Joel Embiid |
| 2 | Nikola Jokić |
| 3 | |
| 4 | Jayson Tatum |
| 5 |
2022-23 NBA MVP Voting Table via Basketball-Reference.
The previous two cases did not really have an angle to argue Barkley and Rose over Jordan and James respectively. Here, there is an angle to argue Embiid over Jokic: scoring. Embiid led the league with 33.1 points per game to Jokic’s 24.5. Aside from that, it was not very close. Jokic had Embiid beat in field goal percentages, assists, and virtually every advanced/player value metric. They were about even in rebounds, steals, and turnovers per game, as well as in PER. I doubt Jokic was too hurt over this, as he led the Nuggets to a championship win in 2022-2023.
| Deserved MVP Placing |
Player |
| 1 | Nikola Jokić |
| 2 | Joel Embiid |
| 3 | Luka Dončić |
| 4 |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
|
| 5 |
Jayson Tatum
|
Legacy
The unwritten rule prevented Jordan from winning three consecutive MVPs (possibly more; also snubbed in the late 1980s). It robbed LeBron of five MVPs in a row to add to his already incredible resume. Jokic was robbed of winning four MVPs in a row, and possibly more if he continues his amazing play. Hopefully, voters pick up on this pattern and put an end to it.
The post The Rule of Three: NBA MVP Award Voters Unwritten Rule appeared first on Last Word On Basketball.