The NBA’s reliance on three-point shooting has reached unprecedented levels. Teams now average 37 attempts per game, nearly triple the volume of two decades ago. The Boston Celtics epitomize this trend, attempting 51.1 threes per game, a league record. While the math supports this strategy, many fans and analysts find it repetitive. However the NBA could be set to change the three-point line in the near future to fight the current three-point shooting trend.
The NBA Set To Make Huge 3-Point Line Change Sooner Rather Than Later
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver acknowledged this concern. He admitted that the league is exploring ways to diversify offensive styles without making drastic changes too quickly.
“We’re constantly discussing tweaks to the game,” Silver said. “We must ensure offenses remain dynamic and exciting.”
Even Legends Think the Three-point Craze is killing Fan Interest
NBA legend Shaquille O’Neal voiced his concerns about the league’s stylistic shift. On The Big Podcast, O’Neal argued that the three-point craze has made games feel predictable.
“Every team is running the same plays,” O’Neal said. “Not every team is Golden State. It gets boring.”
O’Neal blamed the repetitive nature of offenses for declining viewership. Many of the league’s primetime games have seen double-digit ratings drops this season.
A Decade of Skyrocketing Attempts
The NBA’s three-point revolution began in earnest with the 2014-15 Golden State Warriors. Led by Stephen Curry, the Warriors’ success cemented the value of shooting from beyond the arc. Since then, three-point attempts have increased drastically. Even teams that don’t excel at shooting prioritize the three-point shot because of its efficiency.
However, recent champions like the Denver Nuggets have shown that three-point volume isn’t everything. The Nuggets ranked 25th in attempts during the 2022-23 season but excelled in accuracy (fourth), proving teams can win with balance.
Potential Solutions Under Consideration
Silver acknowledged that extending the three-point line is a possible solution. He referenced other leagues, like FIBA and the NCAA, which have moved their lines back.
“We’ve moved the line before,” Silver said. “It’s worth considering if it enhances the game’s diversity.”
The NBA has shifted the three-point line since its inception in the 1979-80 season. Between the 1994-95 and 1996-97 seasons, the NBA temporarily shortened the distance of the three-point line to 22 feet all around, aiming to increase scoring and excitement. However, this change led to a surge in three-point attempts. The league however reverted the line to its original distance of 23 feet, 9 inches at the arc and 22 feet in the corners when it looked like the shortened arc was diluting the quality of three-point shot making. So, the NBA isn’t opposed to making changes to the three-point line.
Analyst Kirk Goldsberry supports extending the arc. He made this point in a recent Bill Simmons Podcast episode. He argued it would make three-pointers more challenging and encourage other offensive strategies. However, Silver has cautioned against quick fixes. He noted that moving the line could create unintended consequences, like crowding under the basket.
Fan Interest Remains a Priority
Beyond stylistic changes, the NBA faces challenges maintaining fan engagement. The league’s ratings dip mirrors trends in other sports, including baseball. However, MLB saw a resurgence after introducing rule changes, such as a pitch clock, to improve the pace of play. The NBA could learn from these adjustments.
Diversity Drives Viewership
The three-point boom coincided with some of the NBA’s highest ratings. The Warriors became a global phenomenon, and the league secured lucrative TV deals during this era.
However, repetitive playstyles could be alienating fans without enough star power to sustain interest. Silver emphasized that offensive diversity could reignite excitement.
“We have some of the most skilled athletes in the world,” Silver said. “The challenge is showcasing that talent in varied ways.”
A Balancing Act
The NBA’s three-point trend reflects the league’s evolution, but it also presents challenges. While changes may not happen immediately, Silver’s comments suggest the league is serious about fostering a more diverse game. It could be sooner than we all think. Balancing efficiency with entertainment remains the league’s ultimate goal. Fans and players alike will watch closely as the NBA continues to explore its next move.
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