It’s a testament to the terrific season the Rockets have had that their main goal now is to avoid the play-in. The expectation coming into it was that they would be on the outside looking in. Only the top six seeds per conference make the playoffs outright. Teams ranked seventh through tenth play each other to earn the last two spots in the main event. The Rockets were expected to be fighting for the tenth spot in the standings. Instead, they are currently fifth. However, it’s not all sunshine and roses for the Rockets. The road ahead is fraught with danger. They have beasts and bandits fast on their trail. The Rockets have curtailed their struggles somewhat of late. Do they have what it takes to stay ahead?
Rockets In Play-In Standings Battle Versus These 2 Teams
The Rockets are currently 3.5 games ahead of both the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves. Since the Rockets occupy the fifth seed, both teams would need to pass them to push them down to seventh. But both teams are playing well of late, potentially making Houston’s life difficult.
The Wolves Are Leading the Pack
For the Timberwolves, the turnaround in their recent play has one obvious explanation. Julius Randle is finally starting to look at home in a Wolves jersey. In Randle’s five games since returning from injury he’s averaging 17.6 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 7.2 assists. Besides an uptick in assists, those numbers aren’t too far off his season averages (18.9, 7.2, and 4.7). But Minnesota and New York Knicks fans know that Randle is a different player based on his commitment to the little things. Randle is giving every game his all right now, hustling and playing better defense. Perhaps he even has the seeding situation in hand. Alternatively, it could be more about his looming decision on free agency. Whatever the case, it’s unfortunate news for Houston.
More unfortunate news for Houston is the comparative strength of schedule for the two teams. Houston has just gone through a stretch of playing some very weak opponents. While they mostly capitalized, it means that their remaining strength of schedule is middle-of-the-pack. In contrast, according to Tankathon, the Wolves have the third easiest remaining schedule in the league.
The Warriors Are On The Warpath
Meanwhile, former Timberwolves player Jimmy Butler is having a similar impact on another franchise to what he once had on the Twin City team. The Golden State Warriors are 12-1 in games with Butler. That is, Jimmy Butler III, as he is apparently now known. He’s still been a love child of Michael Jordan as far as Warriors fans are concerned though.
Butler’s actual averages so far with the Warriors look like typical regular season Jimmy numbers. The kind of numbers that couldn’t carry a consistently incoherent Miami Heat roster to a respectable playoff seeding. But the Heat didn’t have Steph Curry. Butler’s fit with the Warriors has been predictably sartorial. He’s given the team another offensive focal point besides a reliance on Curry’s heroics. He’s even yet to have a public tantrum exchange with fellow heart-on-sleeve enthusiast Draymond Green.
Would A Rockets’ Standings Fall Lead To Regrets?
If Butler were to wind up powering the Warriors past the Rockets in the standings, there would definitely be some revisionist history. Butler to Houston trade rumors were abundant prior to the trade deadline. If the Rockets wind up being pipped to a guaranteed playoff spot, and subsequently flounder in the play-in, it’s possible there would be some regret among parts of the fanbase. Realistically though, Butler would never fit remotely so well with the spacing-starved Rockets as he does alongside Curry.
There’s also some good news for the Rockets regarding the Warriors’ remaining strength of schedule. It’s not among the hardest, but it is similarly middle of the pack to the Rockets. The two teams will even play each other in the final days of the season. Three-and-a-half games is a big lead, but that game could wind up making the difference. Of concern for the Rockets is that the Warriors already own the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against them this season (they played an extra game due to the NBA Cup, which happened to be the Rockets’ only win).
A Knot Of A Tiebreaker
The Rockets’ tiebreaker situation with the Wolves is where things get more complicated. They’ve split their 2024-25 matchups. The next step of the tiebreaker is based on whether either team is a division leader. Houston is only half a game behind the Memphis Grizzlies at present, but in the event they overtook them, they probably wouldn’t be concerned about a tiebreaker to avoid the play-in. The next step of the tiebreaker is who has the better record in their own division. The Rockets are currently 12-3 while the Wolves are 8-5.
The Rockets have only one more division opponent to play, the graveyard-consigned Dallas Mavericks. The Wolves still have three games to play within their division and two against the lowly Utah Jazz. Even the worst-case scenario for Houston would still leave them narrowly ahead though; 12-4 versus 11-5. Minnesota would have to be officially ahead in the standings then.
The Last Word
The Los Angeles Clippers aren’t completely out of the hunt for the six seed yet either, but they’re another 1.5 games behind and 5-5 in their last 10. Ultimately, with a healthy lead over even the W-snatching Warriors and Wolves, the Rockets are in control of their own destiny. Even with future star Amen Thompson sidelined, Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith Jr‘s returns make them the healthiest they’ve been in a while. It’s been a liftoff season for the franchise. If they can stay ahead of these two teams, they can guarantee it’ll be a playoff one.
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