The Heat seem to be getting desperate and that could open the door for the Warriors.
Could the Golden State Warriors finally be on the verge of making the blockbuster move fans have been clamoring for. While earlier reports suggested the Dubs were not interested in trading for Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler, things appears to have changed. According to a report by Kevin O’Connor, the Warriors have reengaged in talks with the Heat since they have lowered their asking price.
“Sources: The Warriors are one of several teams back in the mix for Jimmy Butler now that the Heat have lowered their asking price,” O’Connor reported on Tuesday morning.
Butler’s relationship with the Heat, specifically Pat Riley, has deteriorated to a point seemingly beyond repair. Riley attempted to avoid all this drama by releasing a public statement that said he would not be traded. However, Butler’s response did not result in what Riley was hoping for. Instead, Butler soon requested a trade and has been suspended multiple times. On Monday, he was suspended indefinitely, setting the stage for Miami to lower their asking price for Butler to get a deal done.
Butler is in the second season of a three-year contract with just over $146 million in guarantees. However, Butler has a $52.4 million player option for the 2025-26 season. While the Heat want him to play out his contract, the 35-year old is looking for a max extension. The Heat’s refusal to make that offer, became the first domino toward this place. It remains unclear whether Butler will be more willing to wait on an extension from a new team.
Despite facing questions about his effort, Butler has still put up solid numbers this season when he’s been available. Butler has averaged 17.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.1 steals in 30.6 minutes per game across 25 contests.
While Butler could undeniably help the Warriors, they would face some hurdles to get a deal done. The Warriors are already right up against a hard cap. Matching contracts with Miami to fit Butler’s nearly $49 million salary in a way that is enticing to Riley could be a tall task. However, it’s not as insurmountable as it first may seem. The Warriors have multiple paths to a deal, depending on how creative they want to get.
The most likely question facing the Warriors is would they rather build a trade around Andrew Wiggins and draft picks or Jonathan Kuminga? Earlier in negotiations, the Heat were likely targeting a package that included Kuminga and control of the Warriors future drafts. However, with less leverage, the Warriors may be in a position to force Riley to choose one.
Miami has reportedly always been interested in adding Kuminga in a deal for Butler. If that’s the case, the Warriors could likely retain control of most of their future drafts and pair Butler with their current veteran core. Kuminga easily has the most long-term potential of any player on Golden State’s roster, but he still seems to be a long way from being the type of impact player who can lead a championship team.
It’s much easier to match salaries in a deal that includes Wiggins. However, Wiggins is easily the most consistent two-way wing on the roster and compliments Butler’s skillset much better than Kuminga at the moment. That could change if Kuminga becomes a more consistent wing defender and outside shooter, but that remains a tall task.
Both deals would likely require a third team to get involved. The Heat are unlikely to want Wiggins and his contract, which would require finding a third team to send the Canadian small forward. In a deal without Wiggins, the Warriors would almost certainly have to trade recently-acquired guard Dennis Schröder (and his $13.1 million salary) to match. If Golden State wants to make a deal before February 5th, Schröder cannot be traded alongside other players. So, he would have to be sent to a third-team that redirected pieces to the Heat.
Luckily for the Dubs, trading Butler signals a rebuild for the Heat. So they would likely already be looking to trade Schröder to a contender for some draft picks. The Warriors could send out $55.8 million in salary with a package of Kuminga, Schröder, Gary Payton II, Buddy Hield, Kyle Anderson, and Kevon Looney. That would leave the Warriors just enough space to take back Butler and fill out the rest of the roster while Miami could immediately redirect several of those players to other teams for some second-round picks.
Hypothetical trade:
Warriors acquire: Jimmy Butler, Pelle Larsson, Alec Burks
Warriors trade*: Jonathan Kuminga, Dennis Schröder, Gary Payton II, Buddy Hield, Kyle Anderson, Kevon Looney, 2025 GS 1st (Unprotected)
*to make the cap mechanics work, the Warriors would need to direct some of these players to other teams.
Despite having Curry, Butler, Draymond Green, and Wiggins’ contract all on the roster. The Warriors would still be able to fill out their roster and stay below the hard cap. Two-way players Quinten Post and Pat Spencer alongside Santa Cruz standout (and former lottery pick) Kevin Knox would all be the top internal candidates for roster spots. However, they would also be well positioned to make some additions on the buyout market as well.
It’s hard to know how aggressively the Warriors are pursuing Butler or whether Miami has other potential suitors for Butler that align with their needs more. Nevertheless, Golden State clearly needs to make some changes. After striking out so many times in pursuit of a big name, perhaps Jimmy Butler will finally be the Warriors blockbuster acquisition.