It’s almost go time.
A few days ago, I put out a call for mailbag questions as we awaited the start of the first round series between the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets. I got sick and was a little delayed actually answering the questions, but better late than never. We’ve got an exciting game to get to tonight, and what better way to prepare for it than to read about the Dubs?
Thanks everyone for the questions! I’ll try to make this a weekly thing.
I’m not sure they had too much confidence that it would play out this well, but it was definitely a trade made with this year in mind. The bulk of the reporting around the trade suggested that the two-year extension the Dubs gave Jimmy Butler III was the price they had to pay to get him to sign off on the deal. I don’t think they were upset about that extension, mind you, but it’s a reminder that this was a short-term fix … at the start, at least. Now it’s pretty clear that Butler is a medium-term solution.
Either way, the trade itself was done firmly with an eye towards the now, but it is certainly notable that they didn’t give up any of their young talent (other than the protected 2025 first-round pick). So while they acquired Butler for the present, I think it’s pretty clear that they had an eye towards the future when negotiating, and when considering other trades.
Well, Jonathan Kuminga can’t really be on the trading block since he’s entering free agency. The Warriors could sign-and-trade him, but that’s not really being on the trading block, per se.
I do think he’ll play against the Rockets. Will he open the series in the rotation? I’m not sure. I think he should, but I’m not convinced Steve Kerr agrees. The Warriors need his athleticism and, against Houston’s elite defense, they need his isolation scoring, perimeter penetration, and ability to get to the free throw line.
If he doesn’t begin the series in the rotation, he’ll get in at some point when things aren’t going well. And I suspect he’ll stick after that happens.
I’m not particularly concerned with Alperen Şengün’s scoring. I think the Warriors have played him pretty well on that end of the court. He scored 19 points the last time out but wasn’t very efficient, and that’s been a theme against him: in five matchups this year, the All-Star has scored 85 points but has taken 70 shots and 29 free throws, a 51.4% true-shooting percentage that’s well below league average.
But he has beaten them up on the glass, and his seven offensive rebounds in the last matchup really hurt the Dubs. Simply put, the Warriors need more help crashing the glass. Draymond Green does a good job boxing out the larger Şengün, but there’s only so much you can do when sacrificing that much length. Golden State needs to crash the glass from the perimeter to help Dray out.
And then there’s the ultimate cheat code they have against traditional centers: run him off the court.
I would say there’s a pretty decent chance that either Mike Brown or Michael Malone is sitting beside Steve Kerr next year. And there’s also a pretty decent chance that Terry Stotts isn’t, as the coaching carousel goes round and round and round again, as it always does.
Brown always seems to excel with defensive game plans. I think it’s safe to say the Warriors could always use his input when figuring out weaknesses to target in a seven-game series.
They definitely haven’t given up on Trayce Jackson-Davis. He’s still young and very affordable: he’ll only make $2.2 million next year, with a team option for $2.4 million in 2026-27. He’s basically playing on the minimum so, if nothing else, he’s worth keeping around in case he has a Moses Moody-esque breakout.
But just as importantly, the Warriors will need his skillset at some point. We saw early in the year — and late last year — how critical his rim-rolling was to the offense. The importance of that has been lessened since Butler’s arrival, as the Warriors have needed better spacing after adding another limited shooter to the mix.
The biggest reason why TJD lost playing time, however, was the emergence of Quinten Post, who has simply played better than Jackson-Davis while also stretching the floor. But basketball seasons are long and turbulent … he may have fallen out of the rotation this year, but Jackson-Davis can get right back in it next year.
What it will ultimately come down to is if he can learn to defend well enough to stay on the court.
There’s not much value to be had in a Kuminga trade since he’s entering free agency. More on that in a second.
I expect TJD and Buddy Hield to still be on the team next year. Jackson-Davis for the reasons laid out in the prior question, and Hield because the Warriors are still fairly short on shooting and don’t have a great way to change that. But I also don’t think the team would hesitate to include either in a trade.
As for Gary Payton II — the only unrestricted free agent of the group — I suspect he’ll be back. When he signed with the Portland Trail Blazers, he was a 29-year old coming off a season in which he played 71 games, averaged 17.6 minutes, and was a huge contributor on a championship team. It was his first real chance in the NBA and he ran with it, and it gave Portland reason to think he might excel in a larger role.
Now he’s 32, has played just 128 games over the last three years combined, and has a lengthy list of injuries that have piled up. He’s a good player, but both the floor and the ceiling are lower than when he entered free agency three years ago. As such, I don’t expect anyone to offer him a huge contract … and given how things played out with Portland, I don’t expect Payton to jump to another team if the Warriors are in the same financial ballpark.
I don’t disagree with the notion that Kuminga has been an awkward fit with Butler due to his ball-stopping ways. I think a big part of the question for the Warriors is whether or not they think, after four years, Kuminga can change that. I’ve seen notable improvements on that front this year, but is it enough?
A sign-and-trade could definitely be executed, but the Warriors won’t get much value. Sign-and-trades usually don’t bring in much other than preserving some larger salaries to use in later trades … hey, Kevin Durant should be available, right?
A lot depends on how the playoffs go. If Kuminga is still out of the rotation when the season ends, it’s hard to imagine him in a Dubs jersey next year. But if he plays a key role in the playoffs, I still think the most likely course of action is re-signing him, giving it a full summer and training came to see if they can make the fit with Butler work, and then revisit the trade market at the deadline or next offseason if it doesn’t.
Now there’s a fascinating question. I like the way the 2025 Warriors match up with the 2022 Dubs, and I can’t help but think that Butler and Green could get in Jordan Poole’s head a little bit. But the 2022 Warriors are battle-tested. They went to the biggest stage and performed. I can’t pick a seventh seed over an NBA champion. We’re about to see what the 2025 Dubs are made of, though. If Golden State’s season is still going on in six weeks, let’s revisit this question.
This good question was followed up by a remark saying to disregard it because of how well Joe Viray covered it in his article. So go read that article, everyone!
My personal take, though? I think the Warriors match up well. They would have won four of five contests this year had the refs not done something inexplicable in December, and Golden State has the two best players in the series. They have so much more playoff experience, and I’ll take that plus motion over athleticism.
The biggest thing of note here is that there is a Grand Canyon-sized valley between how perception among players and perception among front offices. And because front offices are the ones feeding most of the information to reporters — and because most reporters can better relate to the people in suits than the people in jerseys — fan perception is often a little more reflective of executive perception than player perception.
Butler is a really good example of this. Everyone talks about him as a cancer, but nearly all of the negative stories are about him clashing with owners, GMs, and the general direction of a team; for the most part, you don’t hear negativity about Butler from other players.
Kyrie Irving is probably the best example of this. He gets the “team killer” moniker after forcing his way off multiple teams. But is there a player more beloved by his peers? Heck, Durant (another great example) and Klay Thompson both left the Warriors and cited a desire to play with Kyrie as one of the reasons.
Even with players who have a good rep, there is a massive disconnect between the players and the suits. Remember when Klay — beloved by all — flashed the money signs and pointed at Joe Lacob? Remember when Curry — ever the company man — commented on it post-game, and made the intentions crystal clear: pay the man, Joe.
I haven’t spent nearly as much time in professional locker rooms as most sports media members, but I can say pretty comfortably that the players viewed publicly as cancers are usually not viewed as such in the locker room. The off-court concern with Butler was, in my eyes, how well he and Draymond would mesh, and the Warriors had a pretty good test run of that with Chris Paul last year. Ultimately, Butler is a highly liked and respected player in the NBA … among players, that is.
I’m going with six, but I think a gentleman’s sweep is more likely than a seven-game series.