I know, I know. I’m jinxing it, but… The other night after the win in Milwaukee, on the livestream I went through the arduous process of seeing if the 6th seed is at all realistic for the Warriors this year after acquiring Jimmy Butler and having (just) two impactful and convincing wins over teams they should beat.
Since it’s impossible for anyone to actually predict standings outcomes — look at how wrong those people were, thinking this year’s Cavs, albeit still a championship-caliber team, would make a run at the 73-9 record.
Part of the problem is, everything is a moving target. It all starts with predicting how many games over .500 the sixth seed will need to be. Last year, it was the Phoenix Suns (tied) at 49-33, sixteen games over .500. The Dallas Mavs got the 5th seed at 18 games over.
This season feels like a deeper Western Conference than even last year. So then you try to pinpoint it just a tad more. Luckily, bkref.com allows you to check the NBA standings on any date in history. So we looked at the 2024 All-Star Break and Phoenix was in sixth, 11 games over .500. Right now, the LA Clippers are in sixth, 6 games over .500. The best they can do before the ASB is to finish at 8 games over .500.
And so PHX last year was 11 games over .500 at the Break, finished 16 games over .500. They went 5 games over .500 after All-Star Weekend to finish 16 over .500.
This year, the 6th seed is at, let’s call it, 8 games over .500. Theoretically if LAC holds on just like PHX did last season, then finishing the remainder of the season 5 games over .500 gets you a total of 13 games over .500 after ASW. You can’t actually mathematically finish 13 games over .500 after 82 games, so let’s just round up to say that the sixth seed for 2024-25 will be 14 games over .500.
That’s pretty close to last season’s 16-over and this season is a more tightly packed West, so aight, maybe that makes sense.
The Warriors are, before these last two games prior to All-Star, one game over .500. If we just split the last two games of this Mavs-Rockets road back-to-back, we shall assume Golden State is one game over .500 heading into the ASB.
To finish 14 games over .500 after 82 games, fuzzily good enough for the 6th seed, GSW needs to go 21-8 or better the rest of the way, with 29 games to go.
This actually gets them to 14 games over .500 after 82, but because they’re only 1-10 in Pacific Division games, let’s assume the Clippers finish 47-35, which means they go only 4 games over .500 — I’ve not looked at the rest of their schedule to see how many times they still have to play the likes of the Celtics, the Thunder, or the Cavs.
So, on with the hand-wavy stuff: 48-34 will be the regular season record needed for the 6th seed for the Warriors. The Clippers, in this scenario and similar to the Suns last season, finish 47-35.
Anyways, can the Warriors even go 21-8?
Well, they have five more back-to-backs, so let’s assume they lose one of those two sets of five pairs the rest of the way. That’s five “scheduled losses”.
We need to find three more losses against these remaining opponents past February 16th:
The good news? None of the post-All-Star opponents are Boston, OKC or Cleveland.
Maybe it’s two losses in a row with LAL away and DEN at home? Since that’s a back-to-back, I already counted one of them as a loss, so the other one is one of the three remaining losses we’re looking for.
Lose two in a row in the DEN-MIL set?
Lose to MEM on the road?
Dallas is depleted by long-term injuries and the Lakers don’t have a bonafide starting center.
My point is, barring injuries, all these games remaining are winnable, especially now that we’ve got Jimmy making huge impacts.
When it comes to predicting, no one can actually do it. So why claim doom and gloom? When you offer a glimmer of hope, you just have to state a few probable facts and have belief. Of course, even with the elite (BOS OKC CLE) opponents all done, it’s unrealistic to predict 29-0, so you go the next step down and make some reasonable assumptions, as I’ve done above.
As Bruce Maro, our regular on the live chats, says, “None of these teams scare me and I’ll always think we’re gonna beat every single one of them before every game.”
That’s exactly the attitude we exude, whether we’re LetsGoWarriors or we’re a member of the Golden State Warriors. We embody the 19th man on the squad and I really do think 21-8 is achievable. Like, no doubt.
I’m gonna stick with the positive belief system. It’s way better, anyways, to inject that joy into the process than be low-vibrational and scared of the outcome. Ask one Wardell Stephen Curry. That’s how he carries himself, too.
Please check out our latest interviews and transcripts all on our YouTube channel. Here’s the most relevant quote on vying for the 6th seed, from Steve Kerr, postgame Chicago:
It’s important for the vibe. It’s important for the confidence and it’s important in the standings. I mean, we came in in 11th place, so the goal is to get up to six. That’s maybe possible, may not be. We probably have to get really hot to get to six. But we’ve got 30 games left and so we can’t mess around. We gotta get going.
00:00 Buddy, what have the first couple of days with Jimmy been like?
00:07 BUDDY HIELD, MORNING SHOOTAROUND, CHICAGO: Oh, we met him yesterday. He’s been cool so far. He’s been — Jimmy’s come in and great personality. I think he’s gonna fit in right with the team. Let’s give him some time, but that’s not an excuse. He knows how to play basketball. I think our style in Miami and here are kind of similar. So, but he’s been in this league for a long time. He knows how to play basketball and we just gonna play around him and he’s gonna adjust to us and it’s gonna be fun.
00:36 In what ways do you see the styles as being similar?
00:40 I guess the way Miami is always running out. Miami’s offense, how they’re doing the gaggle action he does, the follow and chase. And Jimmy’s the guy who’s gonna post up and he’s gonna get down hill. We post Wiggs a lot of times too and he’s gonna draw attention and he’s gonna make the team life easier for me and Steph and other guys. And, as I said, he’s a winner. He knows how to play basketball. He’s one of the guys they go, they try to force it. He plays basketball the right way. He’s been doing this the whole time. And when it’s time to take over, we’ve seen him take over a lot of games before. And, I mean, he has that element to him too. So, like I said, I’m excited to play with him. Can’t wait. And fun days ahead.
01:19 How much do you need what he provides late in games when, like, utah the other night, for example?
01:27 Utah, we could have done a better job closing out too, but like I said, he’s a winner, he’s a closer, he’s one of the league’s best closers and takes a lot of pressure off of Steph. And, like I said, he’s gonna help us be more calm in those times ’cause we haven’t been great. And so bringing a guy like that to help us finish games, that’s what we’ve been lacking in the past, what, we had like 20 of them. And so hopefully he comes in and he changes things for us, but I’m excited to be with him and learn from him. And I try to be his teammate.
02:01 How has he been the last couple of games?
02:04 Pretty vocal today, shoot around. You see him, he’s gonna be himself, man. He’s got no change in him. Like I said, he has a great personality. Like, it’s not his first time being traded. He knows it’s just he can come in and do his thing. And we all accept him with open arms. And he’s in the NBA, man. We have a game today and we’re excited to get out there and learn and try to get a win tonight.
02:27 Do you feel relieved at all that you weren’t moved at the deadline?
02:32 There’s always scary times, but whatever God has in plan for me, that’s the plan. But, well, yes, I’m happy to be here. When I signed here, I wanted to be here. I wanted to help Steph get over the hump. I’m just glad I wasn’t traded, but we still lost a lot of brothers. Wiggs, Kyle, Dennis, Lindy. Those guys we are very close to, on and off the basketball court. So, but I guess hopefully they have great careers as their journey goes on. But yes, I’m happy to be a Warrior still. They’re all being cool for me.
03:12 Three-point contest again, just what are you looking forward to most about next weekend?
03:16 Just gonna compete and, of course, winning. I fell short a couple of times. I won one here in Chicago, so I remember when I won, but I fell short by one or two shots. Hopefully, I can come in and lock in and win one for the city.
03:32 Who’d you beat in the finals?
03:34 I think it was Devin Booker, maybe Devin Booker and I think Joe Harris probably, I think.
03:41 2020?
03:43 2020, yeah.
03:44 How much different is it shooting off a rack compared to shooting game shots?
03:48 I guess it’s more different. In practice it’s always easy. You can go for 35, 37, whatever the number is. But I think that one of the elements — knows the whole world’s watching you and you get everybody in the front row, all the celebrities and everybody there, it’s just a whole different element. So that’s the one you gotta really focus on and it happens so fast and you’re thinking, like, “Oh, how am I gonna perform?” You just gotta, like, rock the element. I think it was my fifth or fourth time doing it, so not a lot of nerves as the first two times, but I’m excited to go out there and win.
04:17 Is this something you practice and prepare for at all?
04:19 No, not right now. I’ve been preparing. I’ve been warming up and all kinds of stuff. I’ve been trying to get my shot right, trying to get back on track. It’s just, I’ve been doing it for my fifth time. So when it comes, we’ll figure it out. When that day comes, hopefully I’ll be able to get a win.
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04:45 STEVE KERR, POSTGAME CHICAGO: Pretty fun having Jimmy on our team. Yeah, he’s an amazing player, the ability to get fouled. It just settles the game for us at key times. But I’m most impressed with his passing. I just think his passing changes everything, connects the game and he does it from anywhere. He’ll dive down to the post, catch it down there or he’ll pass off the dribble or he’ll just make the quick swing. So the skill, the strength, the ability to get to the free throw line and then, in the end, he goes beyond that. It’s just his presence out there. He’s a lion out there. He is a force.
05:34 You played Steph the whole third. How much is that because of having Jimmy in your back pocket to start the fourth? It just kind of looked like that old school formula.
05:44 Well, it was more just because Steph was rolling. I mean, I don’t love playing him 12 straight, but he was just on fire. Obviously, he just completely flipped the game. There was no way I was gonna take him out. The big change, I think, in the fourth quarter, was keeping Draymond out there and putting Quinten with Draymond. And Jimmy and BP and Buddy and that lineup was able to carry on that third quarter momentum. Quinten was fantastic. He gives us that space 5 that opens up the floor and watching Draymond and Jimmy together defensively is really something.
06:25 What did you make of the small-ball units that featured Draymond at center with Jimmy a part of those groups?
06:30 Well, we tried to go to it in the second quarter to try to flip things. And Chicago was making everything and we didn’t really make up much ground. But I do like the look of that lineup with Draymond at the 5 and Jimmy at the 4. I think it’s gonna be good for us and we can switch everything and Kind of play through those guys, but I thought tonight, it was more Steph flipping the game and then Jimmy kind of carrying forward that momentum and taking over the game once Steph went out and it’s fun watching it all unfold.
07:09 Steve, you kind of talked about all season how you’re not a team that gets to the rim, gets to the free throw line. To have a guy like that with Jimmy, how much does that almost shift the presence you brought up and almost breed confidence to free guys?
07:20 Yeah, it gives us confidence that we can get easy points to stop momentum or to build momentum for us. But to stop a run from the other team, getting to the line is the best thing you can do. It takes the crowd out of it, allows you to set up your defense and I think that was a big part of the night was his, Jimmy’s 13 free throws.
07:45 Were you surprised by him almost playing 30 minutes and kind of just how well he did fit in for Game One?
07:49 Not really. Not really. Not really, because Jimmy, I said it before the game, he reminds me a lot of Andre Iguodala. They’re different players, but the similarities are just incredibly fit athletes, incredibly smart. And he’s one of my favorite basketball players. And so I never felt like Andre got tired. Jimmy got tired tonight, the first five minutes. I think he was so amped up for the game, but second half he was good and this guy is, he’s ready to go. I mean, he’s excited and we’re obviously excited to have him. A lion out there.
08:30 I’m just wondering that presence, what does that do for the rest of your team?
08:36 That’s kind of the key. To me, it’s the swagger that he gives us. I think he gives confidence to the rest of the group, including Steph and Draymond. And that’s important when all those guys are feeling empowered and confident. You feel the difference at both ends of the floor. There’s just a palpable energy and we needed that. And for most of the season, we’ve just been kind of treading water and we haven’t been able to generate that vibe and so this is the whole point of the deal, is to try to inject that confidence and that presence that Jimmy brings.
09:22 Brandin, 16, 5 and 7. How does the trade impact his role? Is he presumably more backup player for him?
09:29 Jimmy is an extremely smart player and BP is a smart player, so you put smart guys together, generally good stuff happens. They really looked like they had a good combination out there because of their IQ and their feel for the game. And we started kind of discovering stuff with the two of them out there running some actions that we hadn’t really planned on. But Jimmy’s so smart, he just feels that and BP’s similar and so it’s a really good combination. I imagine they’ll spend a lot of time on the floor together.
10:03 It’s one game, really one half. But how important is it to just show everybody for the group to show themselves very quickly what the ceiling can be for this new group?
10:14 It’s important for the vibe. It’s important for the confidence and it’s important in the standings. I mean, we came in in 11th place, so the goal is to get up to six. That’s maybe possible, may not be. We probably have to get really hot to get to six. But we’ve got 30 games left and so we can’t mess around. We gotta get going.
10:37 You said, I think, coming in, he only knew like three plays, right?
10:41 Yeah, we put in, I think, we didn’t even put any new plays. We just gave Jimmy three of our current plays before the game and then a couple of side out of bounds. But it’s pretty standard stuff. We’re not doing anything that’s out of the ordinary and he’s been playing in the league a long time. And, as I said earlier, Miami plays a similar style to us and so I think it’s a very easy fit for him.
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