New thing: “299” seems to be a designation of a super-deep graduate class when it comes to the numbering system of most colleges, so I’m calling these articles “GSW299” from now on to denote that it really does require some foundational knowledge of the NBA.
Usually this means having a pretty good grasp of team salary cap tables. The best way to do this is to go look at all 30 of those and spend a minimum of five minutes on each one, get a good handle of what caliber of players get what kinds of contracts. My favorite is HoopsHype because they show multiple years in an eye-pleasing format, but for granular contract details there’s always SpoTrac. Here’s the link for the Warriors and then you can use the menu to select another team: https://hoopshype.com/salaries/golden_state_warriors/
And now, on to the recent Andrew Wiggins trade talk. I wanted to first explain my collage picture at the top of this article. I was merely looking for any recent pictures of Wiggins with Mike Dunleavy, Jr. together and my searches led me to the startling fact that they’ve played against each other 😱 (bottom two grids). As I’ve mentioned on this website before, back in my days writing for Golden State Of Mind aka “GSOM”, we had a particular fascination with the Ira Newble kick of Dunleavy when Mike was a Warrior (upper left grid). It was just hilarious, obviously, and was prominently displayed on the GSOM website before the acquisition of the site by SB Nation. And then the one pic in the bottom grid of the collage above, it looks like MDJ might have accidentally clocked Andrew in a Bulls vs Timberwolves matchup! 😂
So anyways, Eric Guilleminault of NBADraft.net is our resident Draft expert, especially as I’ve not connected with their reclusive founder Aran Smith since we had lunch in 2010 🤷🏻♂️ but Guilleminault is also a salary cap aficionado and has a good pulse on all the second apron rules as well as a lens on the Warriors as it pertains to longer-term moves and cap tables, whether or not players are playing to the value of their contract. Essentially, a good grasp on comps, just like any good Silicon Valley venture capitalist would have a good grasp on what an artificial intelligence startup is currently worth out there in the marketplace, for example.
Nearly two weeks ago, Eric hmu and I think it’s best to explain why the Wiggs trade banter has all been about a “third timeline” (my trademark) by just copying and pasting relevant parts of our discussion…
E.G.: I think a possible goal for the GSW front office going into trade deadline is to free itself from the Wiggins contract so they can go after a superstar during offseason, as Karl-Anthony Towns could become available and maybe even Giannis Antetokuonmpo, if things in Minnesota and/or Milwaukee somehow don’t pan out. It might not be either of these two superstars, but just know that a scenario like this isn’t all that far-fetched. After all, no one knew that Damian Lillard would demand a trade last summer, which then made Jrue Holiday available, who was then acquired by a championship-caliber team.
So, of course, this is just pure speculation, but it is out there (or was, in the case of nearly two weeks ago when I had this discussion with EG) that the Dubs would like to shed Wiggins’ contract for several reasons: 1) for cap flexibility, and 2) to give more playing time to Jonathan Kuminga. Giving Kuminga more minutes is more likely going to increase his trade value in the offseason (note that since this talk with Eric, both JK and Wiggs have moved into the starting lineup and are playing well, regardless if the real reason is the return of Draymond Green).
Every team including Golden State wants to get under the second apron. With Chris Paul and Klay Thompson’s contracts expiring, the one difficult contract left is Wiggins.
Also, it’s out there that the Timberwolves might not be able to keep Anthony Edwards, KAT, and Rudy Gobert given their tax burden next season, and the guy everyone speculates that will have to go is KAT. As for Giannis, we’ll just have to wait and see. Obviously, Zach LaVine will be available this summer, so there’s already one name on the market that could move any given team‘s needle (although probably not the best fit with Golden State, although we sort of talked ourselves into LaVine in our Lauri Markkanen three-team-trade dream scenario).
I don’t see anyone GSW can trade for right now that will give them a “Robin” to Stephen Curry’s “Batman” for this season. If they can unload the Wiggins contract at some point, whether it’s by the trade deadline — highly unlikely, given the present trajectory and, say, recent plus-minus numbers alongside Kuminga and Green — or the off-season, they can set themselves up to pounce when the next disgruntled superstar wants out.
GSW will have more picks they can trade after this draft, given they don’t have this year’s picks (30 is heavily protected, but is also owed to the Wizards in the trade that ultimately allowed the Warriors to pick Trayce Jackson-Davis in the second round last summer).
What I’m telling GSW fans is to be patient if no major trade happens by the February 8th deadline, given there is no Robin to trade for, and there may be some good options this summer. Granted, Steph will be a year older, but if you trade now for a Dejounte Murray or Kyle Kuzma, you won’t have the salary space to get, say, a KAT during the offseason due to the second apron and salary cap rules. Overall, to get a No. 2 established-superstar-caliber guy to pair with Curry, you’re going to have to give up a young asset plus picks, and the two most valuable young assets the Dubs have are Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski.
Me: So how would this all work transactionally? Shed Wiggs for an expiring contract, then what during the off-season, to acquire KAT? The problem with KAT is that he’s not going to be a free agent with that max extension he signed. Would it be a trade of JK, let’s say, for KAT?
Picks and pick swaps for sure, probably three first-rounders and filler (say, Kevon Looney or Gary Payton II, who make $8-9 million) + Podziemski or Moses Moody or JK — although by now it sure seems like BP and JK are untouchable — but it has to include Paul so he can be waived by his guarantee date (June 28th, just after the 2024 NBA Draft) and save $30 million. So, really, the GSW timetable is to trade CP3 by draft day to dodge the second apron.
But you could also trade Wiggins now for an expiring contract, in particular if they want to resign Klay. The issue with Klay is, is he willing to to take a $20-million pay cut and get paid $20-23 million for, say, three years, when he could maybe get $28 million per year somewhere else?
The Warriors only have, 2026, 2027, 2028 first-round picks they can trade, can’t trade 2025 until after Draft, and can’t trade 2029 because they gave up 2030. They also can’t trade picks more than five years out and if they trade 2027, for example, they wouldn’t be able to trade 2028 or 2026 anymore; the rule is you can’t trade your pick in two consecutive years until after Draft day, so 2025 could be traded after the 2024 Draft. Check StepienRules.com for more on that, as well as loopholes teams will use.
That’s why it’s hilarious how some fans complain that Steph has no help and the front office isn’t doing enough. There’s not much more they can do. Adam Silver and the Board of Governors made rules to end the GSW dynasty and the reason it worked for LeBron James (by winning the 2020 Finals) is he left his franchise once they got to the issues GSW are currently in.
Steph and Klay are the first- and 11th-highest paid players in NBA this year. That’s why Curry doesn’t have any help; if Klay was playing like the 11th-best player in NBA — btw, he sure was playing that way in the 2019 Finals — they would be in contention right now.
Yeah, the whole Klay timeline is kinda tragic. F U Danny Green! Lol smh.
For me personally, Klay in the 2019 Finals took the place of Chris Mullin as my favorite GSW of all-time, but the reality is his salary is the reason they aren’t good this year; he’s a $20-23 million player right now and if GSW had one more $20 million player like a Bruce Brown or even a Dillon Brooks, the team would be a lot better. With Klay, I think GSW can only afford three years at a maximum of $70 million.
So trading a pick plus Moody for a Dejounte Murray-level player right now is short-term thinking, given the second apron issues for the next few seasons, and will only cause GSW to lose both CP3 and Klay this offseason which is probably the last thing those fans want. Their best bet is to set themselves up for a Draft-day trade and ride out this season. But on the flip side, due to the CP3 contract, the best chance they will have to acquire a great player will be before that contract gets guaranteed. It’s a short window to execute.
In that vain and if this roster as-is cannot make a playoffs run, I guess let’s hope for turmoil in MIN? Maybe we can win the play-in and knock them off in first round and then some other weird thing happens to them. But then again I just looked at their salaries and they’ll be right at second apron for 2024-25, so I think that might be manageable.
You never know who might ask out. Teams didn’t think Jrue would be available and then Dame asked out. Remember, all those teams would welcome shedding salary and picks to GSW for CP3’s non-guaranteed contract to get under tax apron; I don’t think Joe Lacob would be opposed to get into the second apron if they can get a star to pal alongside Steph, but if Dunleavy trades CP’s contract and picks right now, then they will not be able to make another maneuver in the off-season.
That’s there last chip. GSW could do nothing and just waive CP, re-sign Klay to a $32 million one-year extension and then sign three free agents at the minimum and be below the $190 million second apron which keeps the team intact, but fans want Steph to get help. The big question is how long and how much does Klay want and that’s the information only Klay’s camp and the front office has. One more thing to consider in terms of the second apron: only $3 million of Looney’s $8 million contract is guaranteed.
And speaking of Looney, if Dunleavy concludes that Kevon’s stock will never rise back up to the value he had in the Sacramento series last season, the one trade right now that might make sense is PJ Washington to give you a guy who can shoot a little and block shots a little.
If I’ve lost faith in Looney and can depend on Wiggins, Kuminga and Moody to hold up the fort defensively on the wings, I would trade him and GP2 and a top-14 protected pick for Washington. Charlotte does it because they save $4 million in the offseason if they cut Looney and get a conditional pick. Losing GP2 would hurt but where does he fit offensively with Kuminga? Also, not a good time to sell Wiggins low. He’s the only perimeter player on roster that can score and defend guards. Kuminga is better at guarding wings and bigs than elite point guards.
Well, I’ve always been in more of the “play better” camp. And Dean “of Positivity” Chambers and I don’t want to lose Looney’s voice in the locker room, but also Dean says Washington is young, can shoot, is not the best rebounder but is not bad at it, has a 7’2” wingspan despite being listed at only 6’7”, and has a declining contract.
But our main problem with this deal, although it is fundamentally sound from a salary cap management angle, is that humanly, it would take some time for Washington — for anybody — to integrate with the “give the ball to Steph and Klay through Dray but also sometimes JK” identity that we’ve had and now sort of morphed into. It’s best to integrate these impact players in the off-season, but then again Washington’s role shouldn’t be that difficult to master, if Wiggins has learned how to do it.
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