2024 SEASON PROPOSAL
Warriors trade Chris Paul & Andrew Wiggins to Bulls along with all second round picks for Zach LaVine.
Warriors trade Dario Saric & Gui Santos along with all appropriate Jazz-favourable pick swaps & unprotected to lightly protected picks to the Jazz for Lauri Markannen, while recieving Alex Caruso from either the Bulls or via the Warriors.
Jazz trade Collin Sexton & Kelly Olynyk to the Pistons for Alec Burks & Bojan Bogdanovic, & perhaps some draft compensation either way.
2024 Teams
* players in parenthesis are my own personal choice to fill roster spots & are only included to show a full roster, & are not to subject to this proposal
**
GSW
1. Stephen Curry
2. Zach LaVine
3. Klay Thompson
4. Lauri Markannen
5. Draymond Green
6. Brandin Podziemski
7. Gary Payton II
8. Moses Moody
9. Jonathan Kuminga
10. Kevon Looney
11. Cory Joseph
12. (TJ Warren)
13. (Juan Toscano-Anderson)
14. (Marquese Chriss)
15. Trayce Jackson-Davis
16. tw Lester Quiñones
17. tw (Eric Paschall)
18. tw Usman Garuba
UTA
1. Alex Caruso
2. Jordan Clarkson
3. Talen Horton-Tucker
4. Bojan Bogdanovic
5. John Collins
6. Keyonte George
7. Alec Burks
8. Ochai Agbaji
9. Dario Saric
10. Walker Kessler
11. Kris Dunn
12. Simone Fonteccio / Brice Sensabaugh
13. Taylor Hendricks
14. Luka Samanic / Gui Santos
15. Omer Yurtseven
16. tw Josh Christopher
17. tw Johnny Juzang
18. tw Micah Potter
DET
1. Collin Sexton
2. Cade Cunningham
3. Ausar Thompson
4. Isaiah Stewart
5. Jalen Duren
6. Killian Hayes
7. Jaden Ivey
8. Isaiah Livers
9. Kelly Olynyk
10. Marvin Bagley III
11. Monte Morris
12. Marcus Sasser
13. Joe Harris
14. Kevin Knox
15. James Wiseman
16. tw Malcolm Calazon
17. tw Jared Rhoden
18. tw Stanley Umude
2024 OFFSEASON SCENARIO
Jazz trade Alex Caruso, Jordan Clarkson, Dario Saric (if extended veteran minimum), John Collins & 2027 Lakers, Timberwolves & Cavaliers picks to Celtics after July 26th, 2024 for Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Luke Kornet (if ext vet min). This would give these teams 10+ man rotations of:
2025 Teams
** players with ? by their name are veteran minimum one year deals which may or may not be extended / resigned next season
UTA
1. Alec Burks
2. Jaylen Brown
3. Talen Horton-Tucker
4. Bojan Bogdanovic
5. Walker Kessler
6. Keyonte George
7. Ochai Agbaji
8. Simone Fonteccio
9. Taylor Hendricks
10. Al Horford
11. Kris Dunn
12. Brice Sensabaugh
13. Gui Santos
14. Omer Yurtseven
15. Luke Kornet?
BOS
1. Derrick White
2. Jrue Holiday
3. Alex Caruso
4. Jayson Tatum
5. Kristaps Porzingis
6. Payton Pritchard
7. Jordan Clarkson
8. Sam Hauser
9. Dario Saric?
10. John Collins
11. Dalano Banton
12. Jordan Walsh
13. Svi Mykhailiuk?
14. Oshae Brissett
15. Neemias Queta
JUSTIFICATION
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Current Theory :
Simply, this team should go all in to get a Jordan Poole replacement role (although LaVine would start) to replicate the needed perimeter offense of 2022 at realistically a higher calibre, while getting a lesser-yet-close version of a stretch 3-4-5 a la Kevin Durant in Markannen. Sacrificing the picks & sending Caruso to the Jazz would allow for the team to keep the rest of our main vets & young talent together.
Future Theory :
The Warriors go all in on trading / swapping every pick & taking on salary at the expense of financial flexibility for three main reasons.
First, the team can rest assured that moving such a haul for the right return is worth it to remain competitive for the rest of Curry’s contract; the Warriors also save $5,773,457 from tax bill this year. Could be more if Joseph is included. Vet mins used to sign other players is less taxed than normal contracts.
Secondly, the team has the young players needed right now if signed to fairly strong long term contracts for the years these picks come due. The team could be quite bad by 2028, with potentially Curry, Thompson & Green retired, Zach LaVine, Brandin Podziemski, & Trayce Jackson-Davis’ contracts up the year prior, with Markannen’s extension or free agency in 2025, and with Kuminga, Moody, Payton & Looney all up for contracts that year as well. Still, the team should focus on the fact that, if those negotations go well, that this team is making a bet that the front office can keep these players going forward.
Thirdly, this is a market where the NBA is iffy on LaVine & trying not to spend all their draft picks on Markannen. But the Warriors have every reason to go after both, & to offer what I think is fair value for them to the Jazz & Bulls, as I will try to explain in their sections.
UTAH JAZZ
Current Theory :
The Jazz improve in roster construction, in pick depth, & in moveable vet contender pieces in this trade. The lineup of this team is both capable and (especially with Caruso along with many valuable picks) has the ability to go after nearly any star looking for a new destination, while keeping fans excited & getting closer to competitiveness. This also brings back former Jazzmen as well as former teammates, like Clarkson & Bogdanovic or Caruso & Horton-Tucker. The team also makes a bet that after the Warriors Trio have their contracts run out that the team will either have some lax, late Kobeish, ‘ride into the sunset’ season or trade other pieces to revamp their trade chest from other teams, & can rebuild using those selections while the Jazz reap the benefits of the Warriors’ own record.
Future Theory :
The Jazz have, with the Caruso & Bogdanovic Factor, the desired winning pieces for contenders as well as goldilocks-zone salaries of productive starter level players (ie Clarkson & Collins), along with the afforementioned picks. This should allow them to be major players both in pursuing star level players through trade as well as perhaps free agency. The question, unfortuntely, seems to be “who wants to stay in Utah?” While that is a somewhat sad statement on the players not valuing small market teams (especially competitive organisations that have maintained that level for years & years), it is largely the truth- if you are looking to keep stars for one year. I think that the Raptors have been a little hesitant to move pieces after 2019, but that model of just having to hit the ‘right year’ & then reset if a star wants to move on seems to me to be the way in which small markets can actually compete for championships. Let’s say that the Jazz really go all out & try for Jalen Brown, as an example. All you have to ask, for instance, from Jaylen Brown is that he show that he is the n⁰1 option that he believes himself to be, & to stay commited for two full years (or so) to a team that has the pieces to make one more major move to try to compete over that span. Afterwards, if he wants to stay, then great. If not, you move him to where he wants to go for picks, young talent, basic ammunition to start the process over again. Small markets can win titles as ‘stop overs’ for All NBA talent if they commit to not demanding or even expecting loyalty or continuity.
Now, the big markets will always be able to pay larger amounts anyway as they will often draw the most talent to them, and have greater revenue. You stand as a one to two season stop where that player tries to make a run through the conference & then trade them for pieces to the next big market, & you now have an ecosystem that more accurately, I think, enables a small market team to take advantage of the natural player motion we’ve seen from big market to big market once they have gotten either a max contract or full free agency. Full agency being at a ‘sweepstake’ level of league interest. The larger markets then get younger pieces or smaller stars to reset from the layover team, allowing them to then go after the next big star without having, say, the Lakers (the league’s most important team in terms of market, history and positive & negative interest) go for 6 years not making the playoffs, not to mention the fact that the next largest franchises by market (the Knicks, Nets, Clippers & Bulls) are perennially struggling to all make a playoff push at the same time.
None of that can happen for either side if small markets can’t get full agents, & always are stuck between protecting talented, but unproven draft talent like they’re champions, remaining in mediocrity or having to blow it up and start over through the draft. Again, this hypothesis would benefit both sides, & with this Warriors, Bulls & Pistons trade I think that they have the ability to attempt a ‘Kawhi’ year with one of the leagues young superstars. The fact that SLC is close to the Pacific Northwest, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Las Vegas, Southern California & the Bay Area should also entice players to give it a shot, along with Utah having ravenous, loyal fans who generally treat their players like revered Saints.
CHICAGO BULLS
Current Theory :
The Bulls get an all time leader & point guard who can fit next to Coby White, a LaVine replacement who doesn’t demand the ball & is a better defender & rebounder (as well as being significantly more proven in the postseason) for about $16 millon a year less, and open up ridiculous cap space next season, while probably improving as a team, and finding greater than league average value for Zach LaVine. CP3, the second round picks the cap flexibility should be attractive compensation for Caruso who, for however great his impact, leadership & efficiency may be, is still only averaging 9.6 points, 2.3 assists & 3.4 rebounds this year, & about 7pts, 3ast & 3reb over his career as a Bull.
Future Theory :
By waiting for free agency to make a decision on Chris Paul’s contract, & whether to sign the guarantee or not, the Bulls can put themselves in position to only carry $103,616,783 in contracts with the addition of Wiggins going into free agency for the 2025 season. If we go off of Basketball-Reference’s cap number of $136,021,000 for 23-2024 season, & only apply a modest 10% increase in cap space (to $149,623,100), the Bulls would still have $46,006,317 in cap space to go after a free agent. That could be even more if they use one of the NBA’s injury provisions on Lonzo Ball’s ~$21 million dollar contract.
If they are not able, however, to attract the free agents they want, they will still have the ability to fill out their roster with above average salaries, trade pieces, & will be in position to get Chris Paul back (as they will be the only ones to pay him that amount), while having DeRozan’s bird rights & the ability to realistically pay him what he wants, or to sign & trade him to another team. They then can still clear salary with CP3 becoming a free agent in 2026, meaning they can both play with massive salary slots while, health allowing, remaining perennially contending for the playoffs, as the Bulls under Reinsdorf have always attempted to do. They can almost guarantee that they will either have a solid team to go into the playoffs with or to be a major free agent destination. A Coby White, DeMar DeRozan, Andrew Wiggins lineup (even without Paul, Ball or Vucevic) with huge salary space and Ayo Dosunmu & Patrick Williams as young pieces should be an attractive offer to one huge star or two medium ones.
DETROIT PISTONS
Current Theory :
While the Pistons have publically acknowledged the importance of Bojan Bogdanovic & Alec Burks’ veteran leadership, in essence you’re trading Alec Burks for a lesser Bogdanovic type player in Kelly Olynyk, while trading Bogdanovic himself for Collin Sexton (who is paid less than $55 million total over this season & the next two). There is an immediate chiropractic adjustment to the lineup, moving Cade to the two, putting Thompson at the three, & having a twin towers of Stewart (who has shot over 33% from three over the last four seasons on about 2 threes attempted per game) & Jalen Duren, who has clearly taken the starting minutes from Bagley III & Wiseman. Adding Sexton as a high scoring combo-guard playmaker at least adds greater speed (& therefore unlocks athleticism) & some more dynamism by putting another ballhandler next to Cade Cunningham.
Future Theory :
I started writing this on the 21st of December, & I am intending on finishing it this Christmas Eve. I got to the end of the last paragraph above & had to take days to write this section, not only because I’m busy with work, but because it’s so hard to see how this team filled with young talent can seem so miserable. I’ve hardly watched any of their games other than when they play one of my teams, but the lack of fun on the court is astonishing to me. I can understand why they would have a bad record- & why the team’s desire to have low salaries & high draft picks could work out in building a core of talent & attracting peripheral stars with competitive contracts would be good strategy. It’s not far fetched to think that the Pistons could look at the Thunder with confidence as a archetype to follow. They have even had a few significant free agent gets over the years. Regardless, they still shouldn’t be losing 26 games in a row now. That’s tied with the worst losing streak of all time. So I guess the future theory here is that this team has to recreate it’s approach to rebuilding; a rebuilding team should let its young talent grow & make mistakes (even to take justifiable risks, especially those that might be beneficial in growing their strengths); a team in their position should always win the energy & hustle battle, even if they are outtalented & outskilled; rebuilding teams should understand how to at least make a push at the right time of the game, & as point differential is not (yet) a part of draft odds, there is no reason even in tanking to not try to keep every game close; finally the team has to find a way to win the battle of enjoyment. These young players aren’t stupid- they know they are on a team that at the beginning of the season has little chance of even making the playoffs, but they have to feel that there are wins for them through the season & in the future. If we are being completely honest, while winning 24 or 27 or 33 straight games is not a choice most teams can make, with 15+ NBA players on a team, 26 straight losses can’t be anything but a deliberate choice. I can’t believe a team with Cunningham, Ausar Thompson, Bogdanovic, Stewart, Ivey, Livers, etc. can be on par with one of the worst teams in NBA history! The plan, even for a tanking team, should be at least two try to win enough to be the 4th seed in the top 4 of the draft (as odds are even between the teams there), then on to the play-in, the playoffs, a top 4 seed, winning a round, then making the conference finals, & then (if that team is blessed to make the Finals) to turn around & rely on all the steps you’ve made to reach that point against the other conference’s champions. A Sexton trade is, I think, obviously one to add talent & try to win at least a little bit more, as well as to bring a joyous, happy player to the locker room.
BOSTON CELTICS
Explaination :
I am not really advocating that the Celtics move on from Brown. I was only using that as an example of what the symbiosis of large & small markets could & should be. However, the Celtics are a prime example of being on the razor’s edge between keeping two top tier, All NBA talents & trading the 1b option for three 2nd options. They also would save huge amounts of cash & gain major optionality with the picks they’d get from trading to a competitive small market team. So this is simply an option the team might have to reacquire depth & financial flexibilty, while also being a way to make the pressure to win into a referendum on whether to stick to a top heavy 6 man rotation or to go for greater depth & ‘unleash’ Tatum as the sole top player on the team, rather than as the better side of an All NBA duo.
CONTRAST SCENARIO
The Toronto Raptors have seemed to follow the zero-sum philosophy since trading for Kawhi, knowing he was likely leaving, & then refusing to trade their other players for valuable assets, by demanding packages that would generally gut both the other team’s depth, secondary talent & draft picks. So no trades of significance have taken place for them in years, while their main 2019 pieces have largely either retired or left in free agency for nothing in return, including Kawhi himself (although that is a unique case). Why? Because in the moment there were no zero sum wins to be had against other teams. This strategy is exacerbated with their performance, of course, only being (at time of publication) 13 wins over .500 total in the 5 seasons since their title win. This is in one of the largest cities in North America with a realistic market of an entire nation of almost 40 million inhabitants, & one of the most popular NBA spots around. I have never heard a negative thing from any player about that city, other than perhaps the cold. I won’t say that the Ujiri administration there is incompetent or anything like that, as I have nowhere near the knowledge of the Raptors or the behind the scene detail to know why they’ve followed the path they’d been on. When you are not a member of their fandom, & you are critiquing them, it would be impolitic & without benefit to rudely go around calling other team’s leaders names & throwing them under the bus, unless they are doing something obviously destructive.
Still, I will critique that zero sum mindset thoroughly, as it has totally not worked towards tactical positioning for the future. The thing is, I can see it happening again. Pascal Siakam is on an expiring contract, & the Lakers have enough cap flexibility to be able to sign him, along with the allure of a contending team in LA alongside LeBron James & Anthony Davis. I consider this to be a likely scenario to be pursued by both the Lakers & Siakam’s agents. I can’t guarantee it, but all the pieces fit very nicely, except for Toronto of course. Because a zero sum policy mostly keeps the rich getting rich, & the poor getting poorer. Perhaps the poor can steal the wealth & become rich, but then they might be even more brutal in keeping their wealth & making the defeated poor. So in the end, it would simply be a different rich team getting richer, & most of the same teams getting poorer. But to build relationships between teams & make win win trades keeps whatever team that follows it in an sustainable & enviable position of either having assets or the relations around the league needed to get things done. People will remember your reputation, after all. A good heart, fair hand & creative mind will cover many faults, but even the most talented general manager can’t overcome a feeling around the league of exasperation at their heavy handed tactics.
CONCLUSION
In closing, I’d like to first wish everyone a very Happy Chanukah, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year & any other holiday you might celebrate.
Basketball the only major global sport I can think of that uses a round ball, which is meant to bounce, that is used with the hands & no other equipment, & requires all players to play offense & defence. It’s staggering how few team sports are played by hand, use a round ball & require the same players on offense to play defence. American Football, Baseball, Ice Hockey, Tennis, Association Football, Cricket & Rugby Football all drop at least one of those criteria. Basketball is also the only major sport which is in the top three in North America, Latin America, Africa, Oceania, Europe & Asia (particularly the Philippines & China). India & Britain remain major economies where basketball is a peripheral sport domestically, although the NBA has had great exhibition games played in London & Delhi. Still, India is now the world’s most populous nation (& therefore even a 5%-10% viewership would have tens of millions of people), while Britain has deep cultural connexions to Australia, New Zealand, Canada, as well as America, all of which are massive basketball countries with the NBL being probably the 3rd largest. There is also the great future potential of Africa as being a leading continent in viewership, talent & high calibre professional leagues. So this game we love is the only team sport that is near the top of every continent’s interest, while also having a single league as the standalone leader of the entire basketball realm.
We really haven’t even begun to get the full explosion of talent that looks likely to come. For all that Jokic, Giannis, Luka, Embiid et al have done in the league, almost every roster in the NBA remains majorly American & Canadian, that is from NBA countries. The NBA has to expect that the diversity of nationalities that one sees both in all the main soccer leagues as well as in international basketball will come to the Association in the near future. This must be contrasted with the necessity of expansion (outside of Seattle & Las Vegas) being handled with care & gradualism. So the depth of talent in the NBA seems likely to grow & grow, meaning that more & more organizations will have the incentive to not go all in for one star or to blow up their team, but to largely get to keep their main talent other than one or two plus picks, & that if they try to ‘rob’ another team then you may cause resentment that will hurt down the line, especially if it’s the same front office. Better to meet in the middle & both get most of what you want, as well as the chance of doing it again later, than to either conquer or be vanquished. That zero sum game should be decided on the court, not applied to the roster development of the organizations. Win win is the only way to stay relevant in the future, & I hope that I’ve adequately shown at least a reasonable vision for how a trade like that might be put together.
As a final note, before you start thinking about trades your team might need to make, first remember that they’re people who you are arguing should be moved to a new city & replaced on the team you love with someone else, which is a hard thing emotionally if you have a high regard for them as people & leaders. Secondly, before you start advocating for a trade that seems to work in the trade machine, just write out the first & second units at least, & then think of realistically how many minutes you have to allot to the new roster. Then see if the other teams’ make sense as well!
Peace!