The Kings were one of the NBA’s feel-good stories of the 2022/23 season. First-year head coach Mike Brown led Sacramento to its best record (48-34) since 2005 and its first playoff berth since 2006, with no team scoring more points per 100 possessions (118.6) than the Kings.
In many ways, the sequel in 2023/24 was a worthy follow-up — despite dealing with injuries to a couple key role players down the stretch, the Kings won 46 games, registering consecutive seasons above .500 for the first time in nearly two decades.
But the vibes weren’t quite as good in Sacramento for a few reasons. For one, while Brown surely appreciated the improvements on defense (the Kings went from 24th in ’22/23 to 14th this past season), the No. 1 offense took a major step back (to 13th) and wasn’t the crowd-pleasing, well-oiled machine it was a year earlier.
More importantly, with the postseason drought over, the expectations were higher in Sacramento, where the goal was to take another step forward and perhaps win a playoff series. Instead, the Kings found themselves fighting for their postseason life in a more competitive Western Conference.
A year after their 48 wins comfortably earned them the No. 3 seed, the Kings claimed the No. 9 spot in the West despite winning only two fewer regular season games. They got some level of revenge against the Warriors – who eliminated them in the first round in 2023 – in the 9 vs. 10 play-in game, but fell to the Pelicans in the play-in game to determine the conference’s No. 8 seed, bringing their season to an end before the playoffs tipped off in earnest.
A team’s improvement isn’t always linear, so the slight downturn this season doesn’t mean this version of the Kings can’t continue to get better in 2024/25. With no dominant franchises far ahead of the pack in the West, the front office may not have to make major changes to the roster to become a legitimate contender. Still, Monte McNair and his basketball operations team figure to do all they can this summer to figure out how to upgrade the current group with somewhat limited resources.
The Kings’ Offseason Plan
The Kings took care of one of the most important items on their offseason to-do list a week ago, reaching an agreement on a multiyear extension for Brown. The veteran coach signed a four-year contract with the franchise when he was hired in 2022, but the final year was a mutual option, so he would’ve essentially been on an expiring deal in 2024/25 if negotiations between the two sides had reached an impasse, which briefly looked like it might happen last month.
Brown’s has yet to win a championship as a head coach, but his playoff résumé is still relatively strong, which bodes well for Sacramento going forward — he has a winning overall record (50-40) in the postseason and advanced beyond the first round for six straight seasons with the Cavaliers and Lakers. He’s also respected throughout the league, is one year removed from earning Coach of the Year honors, and is the best coach the Kings have had in quite some time.
Given the rising cost of coaching salaries around the NBA, Sacramento did well to secure Brown to a three-year deal with a base value of $8.5MM per year (it can be worth up to $10MM annually with incentives). If things go south in the next year or two, the Kings aren’t on the hook for Brown long-term, and if things go well, they can be more confident about offering him an eight-figure salary commensurate with what some of his more accomplished colleagues around the NBA have received in the last year or two.
With Brown locked up, the focus in the coming weeks will be on the roster, where the biggest question is what will happen with free agent wing Malik Monk. The Sixth Man of the Year runner-up in 2024, Monk has been one of the Kings’ most important rotation players in the past couple years, evolving into more than just a shooter. His 3.9 assists per game in 2022/23 were a career high, which he promptly eclipsed by bumping that number to 5.1 APG in ’23/24.
The challenge when it comes to re-signing Monk is twofold. For one, Sacramento only holds the 26-year-old’s Early Bird rights, which means the team can offer up to a 75% raise on his previous $9.95MM salary (with 8% annual raises in subsequent years). That works out to about $17.4MM in year one and just shy of $78MM in total over four years. That would be a strong offer, but it’s possible a team with cap room and a need for shooting (Detroit? Orlando?) would top it.
In comments to reporters after the season, Monk suggested he wouldn’t necessarily just accept the biggest offer he gets, but if another suitor gives him more money than the Kings can put on the table and offers him a starting role, it could be hard to turn it down.
Even if we assume the Kings are able to re-sign Monk with an Early Bird offer, giving him a sizable salary bump would put the club in danger of surpassing the luxury tax line. Taking into account Keon Ellis‘ non-guaranteed salary and the cap hold for the No. 13 pick, Sacramento has about $155MM on the books for 12 players. Adding a $17.4MM salary for Monk would push that total above the projected luxury tax line ($171.3MM) with at least one more roster spot to be filled.
Letting the veteran shooting guard walk – or losing him to a higher bidder – would create enough breathing room below the tax line for Sacramento use its entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.9MM) on a replacement, but it would be unrealistic to expect the MLE to yield a player whose impact would match or exceed Monk’s. I expect the Kings to push to re-sign him and then address the tax issue later if necessary — it probably wouldn’t be too challenging to shed a contract or two to duck the tax if that’s what team ownership wants.
Of course, if Monk returns, the Kings’ roster in 2024/25 could look quite similar to the one we saw this past season. The team wouldn’t be able to do much in free agency after re-signing Monk and could end up just adding a new prospect with the No. 13 pick, salary-dumping a modest contract (maybe Sasha Vezenkov and his $6.66MM cap hit), and perhaps swapping out a couple back-of-the-roster minimum-salary players.
While that wouldn’t inspire a ton of excitement heading into the fall, it wouldn’t be a total disaster. Sacramento has high hopes for 2022’s No. 4 overall pick Keegan Murray, a big 23-year-old wing who increased his scoring average to 15.2 PPG in 2023/24 and has made 38.4% of his three-pointers since entering the league two years ago. Murray made improvements on the defensive end in his sophomore season and is the sort of breakout candidate who could legitimately raise the Kings’ ceiling if he continues to develop into a two-way star.
Turning to the trade market would be another option for the Kings, who probably wouldn’t mind upgrading their other forward spot, currently manned primarily by Harrison Barnes and Trey Lyles. Sacramento was viewed as a possible Pascal Siakam suitor before he was traded to the Pacers, but putting together a package for that caliber of player without including Murray isn’t simple.
The Kings’ other recent lottery pick, Davion Mitchell (No. 9 in 2021), is a solid defender, but he fell below a two-way player (Ellis) on the backcourt depth chart at times and doesn’t have nearly the trade value that Murray would. A trade package built around Mitchell and either Barnes or Kevin Huerter and future first-round picks would have some appeal, but could probably be outbid by other would-be contenders seeking a star.
It’s also worth noting that, after finishing in the lottery this year, the Kings still owe a 2025 first-round pick to Atlanta, meaning the earliest first-rounder they can trade (outside of this year’s No. 13 pick) would be in 2027 — and it could be pushed back by a year if Sacramento’s 2025 first-round selection lands in the top 12 and is protected again.
Rather than taking a huge swing on the trade market, perhaps the Kings will gauge the value of a package headlined by Huerter and a future first-rounder (or this year’s No. 13). Huerter is a talented outside shooter, but he’s coming off shoulder surgery and his limitations on defense prompted Brown to experiment with starting Chris Duarte in his place in January.
Barnes’ underrated two-way contributions have arguably been more meaningful than Huerter’s, so the veteran forward should only end up on the trade block if a clear upgrade at his position is available. Huerter looks to me like the more expendable salary-matching piece, especially since the Kings have a good deal of shooting elsewhere on the roster. Sacramento could also potentially add another outside threat with the No. 13 pick in the draft, though the club could go in any number of directions with that lottery selection and should probably just be targeting the best player available if the pick isn’t traded.
We’ve made it this far without mentioning the Kings’ two stars – Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox – but their contract situations are relatively stable and they won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. That’s especially true of Sabonis, who signed a new deal last summer and will be under team control for four more seasons.
Fox has two years left on his current pact and will be extension-eligible this offseason. The star guard may want to see if he can gain super-max eligibility by making an All-NBA team next spring, lining himself up for a maximum salary worth up to 35% of the cap instead of 30%. So if he and the Kings pass on an extension this offseason, there will be no reason for concern — if they still can’t come to terms in 2025, that could spell trouble, but there’s no indication at this point that we’re headed down that path.
Salary Cap Situation
Guaranteed Salary
Domantas Sabonis ($40,500,000)- De’Aaron Fox ($34,848,340)
- Harrison Barnes ($18,000,000)
- Kevin Huerter ($16,830,357)
- Keegan Murray ($8,809,560)
- Trey Lyles ($8,000,000)
- Sasha Vezenkov ($6,658,536)
- Davion Mitchell ($6,451,077)
- Chris Duarte ($5,893,768)
- Colby Jones ($2,120,691)
- Total: $148,112,329
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Keon Ellis ($2,120,693)
- Mason Jones (two-way)
- Total: $2,120,693
Dead/Retained Salary
- None
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Restricted Free Agents
- Kessler Edwards ($2,409,870 qualifying offer / $2,409,870 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $2,409,870
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 13 overall pick ($4,702,800 cap hold)
- No. 45 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total (cap holds): $4,702,800
Extension-Eligible Players
- Chris Duarte (rookie scale)
- De’Aaron Fox (veteran)
- Kevin Huerter (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of October 1.
- Davion Mitchell (rookie scale)
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.
Unrestricted Free Agents
- Malik Monk ($12,929,579 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Alex Len ($2,093,637 cap hold): Bird rights
- JaVale McGee ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $17,116,853
Cap Exceptions Available
Note: The Kings project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.
- Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
- Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000