Since Buster Posey took over as president of baseball operations, one thing has been clear: he believes in the young and exciting group of pitchers within the Giants’ system. Even after pursuing Corbin Burnes, his stance hasn’t changed—Posey and the organization trust these pitchers.
The rotation already boasts a solid, if injury-prone, foundation with experienced arms like Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, and Justin Verlander. Jordan Hicks, despite only one season as a starter, has been in the majors since 2018. These four are expected to headline the rotation to start the year. The big question remains: who will secure the fifth spot?
The Favorites to Break Into the Giants Rotation
Kyle Harrison enters spring training as the favorite for the fifth spot. The 23-year-old lefty has already made 31 starts for the Giants, logging 159 innings with a 4.47 ERA over two seasons. Once a top-25 prospect, Harrison’s fastball has always been his standout pitch, featuring vicious horizontal movement despite its modest 92.5 mph velocity. However, he’s struggled to find consistent secondary offerings, particularly with his changeup. Still, with his age and big-league experience, Harrison has one of the highest ceilings in the system.
Hayden Birdsong made waves toward the end of last season with an elite changeup that anchors an impressive four-pitch mix. In 16 starts, he posted a 4.75 ERA, but his 13.7% walk rate remains a major concern, especially for a starter. At just 23, Birdsong spent most of 2024 in Double-A and is working with new pitching coach J.P. Martinez in Sacramento. If they can improve his control, Birdsong could be a valuable asset in the majors
Hayden Birdsong, Dirty 88mph Changeup.
pic.twitter.com/m2eIjRV0rz
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 13, 2024
Unknown Quantities
Landen Roupp has an elite curveball, rated one of the best by Stuff+ last year, which could make him a potential rotation piece. Though he pitched out of the bullpen last season, the Giants see him as a starter, thanks to his ability to induce weak contact and ground balls. The challenge for Roupp will be his ability to stretch out, as his pitch mix remains limited. His changeup, for example, is effective but needs to be thrown more often than its current 9% usage rate. Additionally, like many young pitchers, his control—currently at 12%—will need to improve for him to succeed in a starting role.
Carson Whisenhunt, a former top-100 prospect, had a rocky 5.42 ERA in Triple-A last season. However, his home ERA of 2.34 and dominance with his changeup suggest there’s still significant upside. His struggles in the Pacific Coast League (PCL) shouldn’t be overlooked, as it’s notoriously difficult for pitchers. If Whisenhunt can maintain consistency, he’s still an option for the second half of the season, especially with one of the best changeups in the game.
Looking for Bouncebacks
Keaton Winn was once poised to be a revelation for the Giants, ranked as the eighth-best rookie in baseball in May. However, his season took a downturn, finishing with a 7.16 ERA in 12 starts. Despite this, Winn’s ability to generate a 33.3% chase rate and a 50.9% ground ball rate indicates his potential as a ground-ball pitcher—a style the Giants value. He’ll likely feature for the Giants this season, perhaps more frequently out of the bullpen.
Mason Black also struggled in his brief time with the Giants, posting a 7.27 ERA across 14 1/3 innings after his May call-up. However, after returning to the majors in late August following a strong stint in Sacramento, Black showed signs of improvement, allowing just 12 earned runs in 22 innings. Still ranked among the Giants’ top-10 prospects, Black could soon find himself starting again at the big-league level.
The Competition Heats Up
With spring training underway, the competition for the fifth rotation spot remains intense. Roupp has looked exceptional, while Black continues to struggle. As the spring progresses, it will be fascinating to see who rises to the challenge and secures the final spot in the rotation. Regardless of who claims that position, we can expect all six pitchers to make their mark in San Francisco this season.
Main Photo: © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
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