Winter Meetings mega mailbag

It’s the most wonderful time of the year … maybe.

The 2024 Winter Meetings are upon us, and sometime between asking for mailbag questions and starting to write this article, left-handed pitcher Max Fried signed an eight-year deal with the New York Yankees. So I’m going to try to run through the many questions I got as quickly as possible, before all the players are signed and traded and pitchers and catchers are reporting.

Well, might as well start with the basics! The Winter Meetings are an annual December event that usually mark the peak of the offseason activity. It’s basically just an event where everybody who matters gets together, thus expediting the Offseason Happenings.

Every President of Baseball Operations is there, every General Manager is there, every major agent is there, and most managers are there. With everyone together, things happen to move more quickly.

It’s also where in-person events like Tuesday’s draft lottery and Wednesday’s Rule 5 Draft take place.

I don’t think any team has specific goals during the Winter Meetings, barring any grand Rule 5 plans. Instead, teams just have goals for the offseason and a lot of those goals either occur or fall apart at the Winter Meetings.

The Giants technically agreed to a deal with Willy Adames before the Winter Meetings started, but they finalized the deal on Tuesday, during the meetings. So I’d say it’s a successful first pass through the festivities for Buster Posey.

Yeah, I think, barring something unexpected (such as a trade or injury involving Tyler Fitzgerald), that Ha-Seong Kim is off the table … for now. Posey has been quite clear that Fitzgerald is the starting second baseman, as he should be. And multiple beat reporters have confirmed that the Giants are no longer interested in Kim.

All that said, I still think there’s a very good chance that Kim wears a Giants jersey sometime in the next few years. Everyone knows that Bob Melvin loves him, that the front office highly values him, and that he’s close friends with Jung Hoo Lee. Given his injury and the fact that the Dodgers seem content to move Mookie Betts back to shortstop, I think there’s a pretty decent chance that Kim’s market never really materializes. He’s repped by Scott Boras, so a pillow contract seems likely so that he can prove he’s healthy, rebuild some value, and enter the market next offseason.

Hopefully by next offseason Fitzgerald has proven to be a stud second baseman, but that’s a chicken we cannot count until it has hatched. If he struggles, or if he just proves to be better used in a super-utility role, Kim would make a lot of sense next winter, and give the Giants an outrageous defensive infield (probably with Kim at shortstop and Adames moving to second at some point).

I would say the Giants should be pursuing any and all avenues for upgrades, so both trades and free agency. They’ll definitely add another starter, and I would assume that would come in free agency, where there are more options (and the Giants, despite their at-times frugal nature, are better positioned to spend money than prospect capital).

I’m not expecting them to make another big upgrade offensively, though it would be nice. If it did happen, a free agent signing at first base is probably most likely.

I’ll offer up a few, since “aren’t talking about” can be interpreted a few ways.

Among players that many prospect people are talking about but haven’t made their way into the casual fan’s atmosphere, I’d say left-handed starter Joe Whitman, the player the Giants nabbed in the compensatory round in 2023 with the pick they got when Carlos Rodón signed with the Yankees. Whitman hasn’t garnered the same attention as, say, 2022 second-round pick Carson Whisenhunt, in part because his raw numbers haven’t been nearly as good. But there’s a lot to love under the hood, and it seems like scouts rave about him.

At a tier below that — a name most Giants nerds have heard, but is fully off the radar of fans who don’t pay attention to the Minors — I’d go with shortstop Aeverson Arteaga. He lost virtually all of the 2024 season due to thoracic outlet surgery, but is a defensive wizard with tremendous athleticism, a healthy tank of power, and is still a very young player. He was always kind of linked with Grant McCray in terms of progress, though they obviously got separated in 2024. I’ve always been quite high on him. In this same tier, but at a lower level, I’d go with outfielder Lisbel Diaz, who is a stud.

As far as players that seem underrated even by prospect hounds, I’m personally a big believer in righty Josh Bostick, catcher Onil Perez, catcher/first baseman Jesus Alexander, and the forgotten-by-many second baseman Ryan Reckley. And in terms of players who could sneak into the Majors this year that most fans haven’t heard of, infielder Christian Koss and outfielder Carter Howell are names to keep an eye on! And I remain of the belief that, when healthy, relievers Cole Waites and Juan Sánchez can be huge bullpen contributors.

I think, if you had to set a betting line, that the over/under would be the All-Star break in 2025. Personally, I’d take the under on that right now, though not as quickly as I would have taken it were Farhan Zaidi still in charge.

It does seem like this front office will get back to a more patient approach with prospects. But Bryce Eldridge is someone who everyone in the organization believes will be one of the faces of the franchise and he’s already made it to AAA, where he’s looked quite comfortable. Most players (see: Matos, Luis) can be stashed in AAA even when they’re tearing the league apart. Eldridge is not one of those players. If he is hitting comfortably above league-average with no red flags (such as a high strikeout rate or an inability to hit breaking balls), and playing competent defense at first base, there’s simply no reason — or justification — to keep him in Sacramento.

With that said, Eldridge might stumble in AAA … it happens to most players! And the Giants might surprise us and end up with a first baseman this winter who is harder to move on from than the players they currently have at the corner. So there are a lot of moving parts. But I think it’s most likely that Eldridge debuts in the coming season, and not just a late-season cameo to get his toes wet.

Ryan Walker will be the closer. I don’t think there’s any way that changes between now and Opening Day. He was one of the sport’s most dominant relievers last year, and only got better when moved to a closer role.

That said, Camilo Doval still has an elite arm. And at Monday’s media availability, Posey — unprompted — threw cold water on the rumors of a Doval trade, expressing his confidence in the former All-Star.

Depending on how Spring Training goes, I would expect Doval to start the season as the seventh or eighth-inning arm, and get a few opportunities to save games when Walker has been heavily used. It’s important to remember that closers aren’t like shortstops … there’s no diminishing returns in having two or even three great ones! Doval isn’t blocked by Walker … if the Giants have an All-Star closer as the setup man to their other All-Star closer, well … that’s a damn valuable thing.

I answered some of this question in the earlier Eldridge prompt, but let’s tackle the rest here. I don’t think it’s very realistic that Eldridge makes the Opening Day roster, but crazier things have happened. As you seemed to allude to, Jacksons Chourio and Merrill both made their Opening Day rosters last year; Chourio was Eldridge’s age and had only played six games in AAA, while Merrill was a year older and hadn’t played in AAA. So you can never say never. But the Giants have signaled a desire to not put too much pressure on Eldridge, and they have good stopgap options at the position. I think it would take a historically-great Spring Training for them to give him the job from day one.

Something that’s often lost when players come up: there is often an opportunity cost. For example, if the Giants go into Spring Training with Wade as their first baseman, and decide to put Eldridge on the Opening Day roster, then they probably have to get rid of Wade. And then if Eldridge struggles for a few weeks and they decide he needs more seasoning in AAA, what do they do? They got rid of the other option. It’s similar to last year, when fans wanted the Giants to get rid of Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski, or Austin Slater so that Matos could make the Opening Day roster, only for Matos to end up being one of the worst players in the Majors last year. If Eldridge starts in AAA, then they can preserve all their roster options, and bring him up at a time that makes the most practical sense.

As for player comps … I’m no good at these, but it’s important to remember that prospects have a massive range of outcomes. Most great players were projected in the Minors to be good players, not great ones. And many top prospects prove to never be good Major Leaguers. So given that Eldridge is a super powerful, tall, ultra-young and polished lefty with electric stats, underlying metrics, and scouting reports, I’d say the high comparison is his namesake that the Giants tried so hard to sign, Bryce Harper. And given that he’s barely played in the upper Minors and thus could still end up really struggling, is not a particularly notable defensive player, but has playable power, I’d say his low comp is an extremely poor man’s Kyle Schwarber. And the overwhelming likeliness is something in between.

I’m not sure they’re too concerned about it. For his career, Matt Chapman has a 124 wRC+ against lefties and a 117 wRC+ against righties, so he barely has notable platoon splits. Willy Adames is actually an extreme reverse platoon hitter, with a career 117 wRC+ against same-handed pitching, and just a 91 wRC+ against southpaws. So I wouldn’t be worried about forcing a lefty in between those two and Heliot Ramos. Barring another signing, my preferred top of the order would be Lee, Ramos, Chapman, and Adames, in that order (maybe with Chapman and Adames switched).

I don’t anticipate the Giants making a lot of moves this offseason, so they probably don’t need to clear many spots. It’s hard to find any pitchers they’d want to designate for assignment, though I suppose Spencer Bivens could be an option. I’d guess they try to trade Taylor Rogers, but I’m not sure they’ll have any luck there.

On the offensive side, the names that stand out are David Villar and Jerar Encarnación. Both players are out of options, meaning that, like Joey Bart a year ago, the Giants will need to either put them on the Opening Day roster or get rid of them. Given that neither has a clear spot on the active roster right now, you can make cases for each.

I’m not sure they’ll want to keep both LaMonte Wade Jr. and Wilmer Flores, so don’t be surprised if they get rid of one, though that would probably be a trade.

With the starting infield set (save for first), and Casey Schmitt looking like a quality backup infielder, and some playable emergency depth in AAA, I suppose Brett Wisely could become a roster casualty. And given that Melvin doesn’t trust Blake Sabol to catch, and Sabol doesn’t hit well enough to not catch, he’s someone who is probably nervous when the phone rings.

They definitely won’t look for a true DH. There’s really no need for any team that doesn’t employ a Shohei Ohtani or Yordan Alvarez type to have a true DH, and the Giants were reminded of that the hard way last year. Instead, the DH really should just be a rotating position to keep the best bats in the lineup and get players some rest days.

I would be shocked if all three of Wade, Flores, and Encarnación make the Opening Day roster, and honestly, I think there’s a good chance that only one of them does.

Another power bat would be great, but easier said than done.

In a vacuum, yeah. Posey battled against Cody Bellinger and likely views him highly. He can play first base until Eldridge is ready and then transition to 1B/OF/DH utility player.

But Bellinger is owed $27.5 million in 2025 and, unless he opts out, $25 million in 2026. The Cubs want to trade him not because they can extract value, but because they want to shrink their payroll, which means if the Giants traded for Bellinger it wouldn’t be in a trade where San Francisco sends out a similar amount of money, or Chicago pays down some of the contract.

Given their pitching needs, I’d be shocked if the Giants are entertaining the notion of taking on Bellinger’s contract.

Posey has praised the young guys in the rotation in recent days, but it feels like a certainty that they’ll add a name to the rotation. Your question assumed they don’t get Corbin Burnes, and, in the spirit of your question, I’ll add Rōki Sasaki to that bucket.

I think we can probably eliminate the players with Qualifying Offers attached to them. The Giants are willing to pay the Qualifying Offer to the right player (such as Adames or Burnes), but, having already lost a second-round pick, a fifth-round pick, and $1 million in international bonus pool money, I doubt they’re willing to pay the next penalty (a third-round pick and a sixth-round pick) for a mid-level starter. So I think we can probably eliminate Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta.

I could maybe see them handing out a nice-sized deal to Jack Flaherty, though I think it’s more likely that they settle for a short contract for an older, decent vet, like Andrew Heaney, or maybe even Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. Tomoyuki Sugano is also an intriguing option. I’ve heard a lot of people suggest Walker Buehler, but given the team’s needs, I’m not sure someone who is a bit of a question mark with both health and performance is the right fit.

Who knows? It’s impossible to say. Much of the industry has long expected Sasaki to sign with the Dodgers, and Alex Pavlovic has reported that the Giants have believed that will happen for a long time.

But a few reporters have suggested — some mildly and some quite strongly — that Sasaki is unlikely to sign with the Dodgers, and Sasaki’s own agent fought hard against those accusations on Tuesday (which, since there’s no bidding war, isn’t something advantageous to lie about).

The Giants have a lot to offer. Sasaki’s agent (who also repped Brandon Crawford), said that the pitching phenom might prefer a market with a calm and kind media presence, which the Giants certainly represent (I say that as a compliment to my fellow Giants writers, not a slight). Oracle Park is a dream for any pitcher (especially a right-hander), and while the Giants don’t have the best recent track record of developing prospects into great MLB pitchers, they do have a strong recent record of signing proven pitchers and taking them to the next level, which might intrigue Sasaki.

Finally, there’s the money. The Giants have some popularity in Japan due to being a West Coast team with the same name as a popular NPB team. Some reporter (I apologize, I can’t remember who) recently noted that Kodai Senga was making more endorsement money than Yoshinobu Yamamoto, despite being a less-heralded pitcher, because he didn’t share a market with a prominent Japanese player. LA (Ohtani and Yamamoto), New York (Senga), Boston (Masataka Yoshida), Chicago (Seiya Suzuki and Shōta Imanaga), and San Diego (Yu Darvish) all have popular Japanese players that Sasaki would have to share the market with. In San Francisco he not only would avoid that, but would get the matchups against Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Darvish with some regularity, which could further his popularity.

Anyway, don’t expect the Giants to sign him, but they sure offer an interesting pitch.

Haven’t heard any recent updates an Tomoyuki Sugano. It might be a situation where we don’t know anything until he signs.

No, Pat Burrell will not be fired. At least not before this season starts. The Giants have already finalized their coaching staff, and it includes Pat Burrell as the hitting coach with Damon Minor and Oscar Bernard as assistant hitting coaches. Burrell has received rave reviews from the team’s coaching staff, front office, and players.

As for your second question, I would both hope and assume that Posey is intelligent enough to realize that the difference between San Francisco’s and Los Angeles’ offenses is rooted in the Dodgers employing Ohtani, Betts, and Freddie Freeman, not Aaron Bates and Robert Van Scoyoc.

Taking these two together. The most important part of a Kyle Tucker or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. trade is taking stock of their situations, and the Giants long-term vision. Both players are rentals, but the Giants are not in a position where they should mortgage a large part of the farm for one year of a player. If they swing a big trade for a rental, it has to be like what the Dodgers did with Betts (a massive extension following the trade), not like what the Yankees did with Juan Soto (losing him in free agency).

So my answer as to who I would be more interested in would be the one willing to sign an extension before reaching free agency. And that proposed package would be an easy “yes” in my book, if an extension was in line.

As for Guerrero vs. Tucker in a vacuum? Tucker has the advantage of not playing the same position as Eldridge, but Guerrero has the advantage of being a right-handed hitter and more than two years younger. I’m a little higher on Guerrero, for reasons I can’t quite explain and aren’t backed up by stats or logic. But that, combined with his handedness, age, and durability, make him my pick, position be damned.

I answered the Tucker question above, but let’s touch on Luis Robert Jr., who is a player I love. I would be shocked if the Giants make a play for him. While he has had some really good offensive seasons, he was a bad offensive player last year, and so much of his value is tied to his ability to play a great center field (which, it’s worth noting, he didn’t do last year, either). The Giants would have to pay center field prices to put him in a corner. That’s a pass for me.

I’ll be honest: I don’t quite get the Josh Naylor lore. He’s a fun player, and his power would be nice (though Oracle Park would be one of the worst parks for him, per Statcast). But he’s also a low-OBP first baseman with nondescript defense. While I do think the Giants need more power, it’s worth noting that Steamer projects Naylor to have a 124 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR, and Wade to have a 117 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR. That difference isn’t nothing, but it’s not enough for me to think the Giants should give up too much. I would assume the Guardians would want one of the Giants young pitchers or maybe Doval and Wade, and I’d pass on that.

I would assume that the team will poke around options at first base, whether it’s a trade or a signing of Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, or Christian Walker. It’s definitely the most obvious position to upgrade, but at the same time … given how good Wade and Flores were the last time they were truly healthy, you can see the Giants going into Spring Training to see how they (and perhaps Encarnación) look, and adjusting on the fly if need be.

DH will certainly just be a rotating cast of players, as it should be for any team that doesn’t have an Ohtani-type. If Flores makes the roster, he’d get a good chunk of those starts, as will Tom Murphy. And I’d assume that Ramos and Yastrzemski get some time there so that they can stay fresh, and so whatever young player makes the roster as a fourth outfielder can get some run.

Had the Yankees landed Juan Soto I would have thought they’d be a perfect trade partner. But after losing out on Soto, I expect them to make a run for Walker or Pete Alonso, or maybe talk themselves into thinking that a trade for Nolan Arenado is a good idea.

Not sure you could have asked a harder question! For what it’s worth, the projections are fairly high on him. Fangraphs’ Steamer projection has Lee at a delightful .293/.351/.437, while ZiPS has him at a lower (but still good) .281/.337/400. I’m going on the super optimistic side and saying that he figures it out in his first full year and hits .307/.362/.454.

The answer should be “Yesterday.”

I will say, with Posey at the helm, the Giants are clearly more in tune with their past than before. The stars of the World Series teams are already around the organization more, and there will be no covering up the great feats of the past. So, while I’m not sure that the PBO has much control over these things, I’m sure Posey is a firm believer that Barry Bonds needs to have a statue sooner rather than later.