The organization might be in an evaluation mode, but it’s our job as fans to dream big.
Yesterday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke news that the West Sacramento Athletics had signed 24-year old right fielder Lawrence Butler to a 7-year extension worth $65.5 million. On the one hand, it’s hard not to read this as another cynical ploy by that team’s management to create an owner-friendly contract that they can flip for prospects during their 2027 rebuild, but on the other hand, it gives us the chance to consider a similar action for the Giants.
Now, why would the Giants follow in the A’s footsteps? Well, we’ve crossed the Rubicon in terms of a comparison with the A’s being an unfavorable one. After a decade of success in the 2010s, the San Francisco Giants retrenched to become the A’s from the decade prior (the Moneyball era) and after focusing more of their efforts to help Major League Baseball kill the sport in Oakland, they’ve farted around enough from a development standpoint that there’s a nonzero chance the West Sac A’s have a better season.
These are humbling days for the Giants. They’re not drafting off any track record of on-field success as a team and they’re starting from scratch in terms of reputation. Same spot as the A’s find themselves in. But it’s not all doom and gloom (seriously!). The low expectations for the team has created an opportunity for their solid spring to create much more optimism than years past, which were mostly marked by anxiety.
With that brewing excitement comes even more possibility: what if the Giants are developing their own stars of tomorrow? Are there some they could look to lock up today (or very soon)? They’ve certainly done it recently with Logan Webb, and their financial commitments to Matt Chapman and Willy Adames show they want to pay for talent when it makes sense.
Lawrence Butler turned 24 in July, but 2024 was his age-23 season and second year in the big leagues (he appeared in 42 in 2023). His line: .262/.317/.490, 22 HR, 57 RBI, 18/18 SB, 7.8% walk rate, 23.9% strikeout rate, +3.3 fWAR. He was the 54th-most valuable player in MLB last year (min. 450 PA), but just as a hitter, his 130 wRC+ was 27th. To put it another way: he was about as good as Anthony Santander. He wouldn’t have been arbitration eligible until 2027 and a free agent until after 2029, so the A’s bought out all of his team control plus the first two years of his free agency.
This post isn’t advocating for the Giants to immediately copy their former regional rival, but something to consider for next offseason. With that in mind, let’s look at some possible Butlers, from obvious to less obvious:
Heliot Ramos (2026: age-26 season)
2024: .269/.322/.469, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 6 SB, 7.1% BB rate, 26.1% K rate, 120 wRC+, +2.3 fWAR
Why it would make sense:
The obvious choice. Unlike Butler, Ramos was an All-Star in 2024. He was also once a top 100 prospect, so an extension would be less shocking (if you don’t know anything about his development history with the GIants). However, he’s a year older than Butler, and was a full win less valuable in 2024 (+2.3 fWAR). His value measures were impacted by some ugly defensive numbers in centerfield (-6 Fielding Runs), but he was above average at the corners. A highly rated prospect coming back from the wilderness to become a middle of the order threat is a good story.
The Giants aren’t shy about retaining their stars. If he has another year like last year, he will quickly enter “face of the franchise” conversations — that’s even with Chapman and Adames in the fold. He’d be a homegrown feather in their cap, part of a three-headed hitting monster. Ramos, Chapman & Adames on a billboard would look great, and they could install it across the street from one with Logan Webb, Justin Verlander, and… Ryan Walker?… on a pitching billboard.
What would it cost?
If he has actually made the jump to an above average major league regular, then it’s plausible that he’d get about $22 million total through three arbitration years. To bring back Anthony Santander: he got 5 years and $92.5 million ($18.5MM AAV) for being a 3-WAR player in each of the last two seasons, but also a 3-year stretch where he put up a hitting line of .244/.317/.478 with 105 home runs.
I doubt Ramos posts that home run total, but let’s just assume that given inflation and a performance that would merit an extension, $18.5 million AAV would be a reasonable floor for his free agent value in today or even next offseason’s dollars. Multiply by four and then add in the $22 million in projectable arbitration, and that’s 7 years/$96 million.
Why it wouldn’t make sense:
Because he’s a full year older than Butler, it means he’s a full year ahead in terms of team control. He’ll become arbitration eligible for the first time next season and a free agent after the 2028 season (his age-28 season). A 7-year deal would be his arb years plus his first 4 years of free agency, and if the team was willing to do that, then things might be going so well that it’s likely his agents would rather he explore getting more money in free agency — they’d be right to urge that as he’ll have earned it!
More importantly, Ramos is a right-handed corner outfielder who’d be most valuable for his hitting. If he hangs around the 120 wRC+ range, that’d be great, but in terms of locking up players like this long-term, it’s pretty rare. Indeed, in the prior 7 years (2018-2024), we’re talking a handful of similar players (again — if Ramos’s 2024 is at all projectable for the rest of his career): Randy Arozarena, George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton, Teoscar Hernandez, Mark Canha. It’s not that they’re fungible so much as they’re usually pricey one-dimensional players, which tempts teams to look elsewhere for more cost effectiveness.
Tyler Fitzgerald (2026: age-28 season)
2024: .280/.334/.497, 15 HR, 34 RBI, 17 SB, 6.5% BB rate, 31.7% K rate, 132 wRC+, +3 fWAR
Why it would make sense:
Look, if Tyler Fitzgerald sustains that power-speed combo over a full season, then it means he did something to fix that unplayable strikeout rate while maintaining power and speed — and presumably solid defense at second base. This would simply make him one of the best players at his position in the sport. Right now, that conversation is basically Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, and Ketel Marte.
But! This is a very, very unlikely development, and it’s far more likely that his ceiling is that next tier down: Gleyber Torres, Brandon Lowe, Tommy Edman, Nico Hoerner — still solid and if the Giants were a little bit concerned about their middle infield depth, locking up a known quantity could make some sense.
What would it cost?
If he’s in the Altuve-Semien-Marte conversation, then an extension might only be possible because of his age, but that’s a pretty big gamble by the team (less so his agent) for a guy whose physical prime window will already be closer to the end. Semien’s enormous 7-year, $175 million deal began in his age-31 season, but that followed an extensive track record of superlative performance.
Now, a more relevant extension example are either of Ketel Marte’s 5-year extensions with Arizona. There’s the one he signed in Spring Training 2018: 5-years, $24 million. He signed another extension in Spring Training 2022: 5-years, $76 million.
Either could be a comp for Fitzgerald, if he performs in a way that merits an extension. A 5-year extension would buy out his final pre-arbitration year and all three of his arbitration years plus his first year of free agency.
Why it wouldn’t make sense:
Just 16 right handed hitters were 32 years old in 2024. I mention this because that would be the final year of a 5-year extension for Fitzgerald. The relevant comparison players: Enrique Hernandez and Gio Urshela, which isn’t to imply that Fitzgerald isn’t worth anything, but he’s not “pre-arb extension-worthy.” Fitzgerald matching or surpassing his 2024 performance seems like a stretch, but even still, it’s unprecedented for a player of his age getting a pre-arbitration extension. If Fitzgerald is going great, then I think the team will simply maximize their team control through pre-arbitration and arbitration.
Grant McCray (2026: age-25 season)
Why it would make sense:
In 2023, left-handed hitting Lawrence Butler hit .211/.240/.341 with a 27% strikeout rate in 42 games (129 PA) with the A’s.
In 2024, left-handed hitting Grant McCray hit .202/.238/.379 with a 43% strikeout rate in 37 games (130 PA) with the Giants.
In his minor league career (6 seasons), Butler slashed .257/.344/.439 with 54 home runs, 74 stolen bases, and a 29% strikeout rate.
In his minor league career (5 seasons), McCray has slashed .265/.361/.443 with 53 home runs, 133 stolen bases, and a 29% strikeout rate.
I’m not saying anything. I’m not saying anything at all.
What would it cost?
Ahem.
Why it wouldn’t make sense:
Look, if he has a breakout 2025 a la Lawrence Butler’s 2024, then there’s no reason not to try to extend him in the same way. But that is very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, VERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRY unlikely. A moderate success where he adds positive value would be enough from a rooting perspective. If he turns into a 3-win player… let’s enjoy that problem. The other wrinkle here is that McCray is better in center than Butler (who is primarily a right fielder). Seriously, it’s hard to fathom what the Giants would have on their hands, which is why it’s better to not think about it — since it’s so unlikely.
Now, there are other players who could have big seasons in 2025 — Luis Matos, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp, Kyle Harrison, Ryan Walker — but the three above represent the ones whose breakouts could most likely rouse the Giants to present a surprising extension.
Teams are always better off remaining skeptical of arms and Luis Matos, while having flirted with a breakout, has yet to establish himself to a point where he should be included alongside Heliot Ramos rather than in place of — if he winds up becoming the player he profiles to be, then he’s effectively a high contact corner outfielder, and the Ramos analysis would largely apply — unless Matos becomes an All-Star, too, and has some heroics.
While McCray’s inclusion might seem a bit silly, I’m pretty committed to concluding a post with a player whose career has a lot of similarities with the one who inspired the analysis in the first place. McCray is probably not the next Lawrence Butler and the Giants are probably unlikely to extend any of their young players before they hit free agency, but you never know.
So, if one of these Giants has a breakout season in 2025, which do you think the Giants should lockup long-term?