The media sources have been signaling a distinct philosophy, but is there more to it than computers vs. people?
I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again: I’ve only bet against Buster Posey twice and both times I “lost” big.
- When he said at the 2010 World Series that the San Francisco Giants should enjoy this win briefly but “then get back to work and let’s make another run at it.” Uh-uh. Sorry, kid. That’s not how baseball works. LOL me. So wrong. So stupid. But also: hey, I got to feel a rare joy of seeing a World Series win two more times!
- I didn’t think a catcher coming back from hip surgery would be anywhere close to the player he once was, and then, well, 2021 happened. LOL me. So stupid. An idiot. But also: hey, I got to see a probable Hall of Famer cement his Hall of Fame status. And this.
So, it’s in that spirit that I will NOT be counting out Buster Posey as the President of Baseball Operations the next few years. I’ll be doing exactly the same thing I did when Farhan Zaidi took over: roll out the red carpet and keep an open mind to all ideas. I will even gas him up a bit — as a means of relishing an eventual fall or as a way to soften the ground for the fans who are skeptical? Even I’m not sure. I’m an evil person in that regard.
But Zaidi’s projectable failure doesn’t have to be repeated by Buster Posey, even if all the signs of a spinout are blindingly obvious from the outset. Running an organization is not the same as being a Hall of Fame player and being a winner on the field is not the same as being a winner managing personalities, budgets, and legal/procedural/ethical demands.
Blah, blah, blah. It’s Buster Posey. I have no choice but to hear him out. And I do so happily.
And on that note, I was heartened by the reported elevation of J.P. Martinez from assistant pitching coach to lead pitching coach because Martinez has the institutional knowledge and preexisting relationships with a lot of the talent that’ll be sticking around (presumably). If the team winds up taking our advice and reinvesting in the pitching lab, so much the better, but the bottom line is that Martinez is (if the report is accurate) a move that only fuels my biggest hope of the Buster Posey tenure.
This is essentially wishcasting, but the best case scenario with Posey running the show — as I see it — goes like this: after spending about a year talking to people up and down the organization and getting a lay of the land in terms of how things run behind the scenes, seeing what methods and procedures Zaidi & Pete Putila have put into place, and comparing that against what he experienced as a player, and balancing that against what he views as “something that works” versus “something that doesn’t,” Posey has decided that the Giants are now equipped to compete in the modern game but they just need to make stronger decisions in critical areas and he’s the one to make them.
We don’t need to read aspersion-casting reports about Zaidi’s indecisiveness or overcorrections to understand that the team couldn’t stick to a direction in-season. We got that just from the transaction log. It would be foolish to say that Zaidi & co. didn’t make the Giants better over the past six seasons and that’s where I see Posey looking at what did work and saying, “We have the tools, we just need a better crew.”
And this is where Susan Slusser’s filed report to the San Francisco Chronicle yesterday (subscription required) gives me pause, and not a regular pause — a pregnant one. She named four dudes on the Giants’ radar that harken back not just to a previous era, but two eras ago. [My math: We’re in the pitch clock era now. Previously, the Statcast era. And then there was whatever you want to call it before that.]
Billy Owens (Oakland A’s AGM)
In 2023, the San Jose native celebrated 25 years with the A’s organization (unrelated, but related: what’s happening to the A’s ought to be a crime and it’s yet another large and smelly pant stain on baseball commissioner) so he’s a Bay Area fixture.
He started off as the A’s Minor League hitting instructor, then became an area scout, then advanced to East Coast scouting coordinator. He became the director player personnel in 2010 and had that job until being elevated to Assistant General Manager (AGM) in 2015.
Prior to his current role as assistant general manager and director of player personnel, Owens, 51, spent five seasons as an A’s Minor League hitting instructor, a post he started in 1999. By 2003, Owens was an area scout, and soon afterward, he was promoted to East Coast scouting coordinator.
Per MLB.com: “In addition to evaluating players, Owens focuses a lot of his attention on putting together scouting reports, which he tries to make an enjoyable experience to read for the front office.” He was inspired to get into baseball at the age of 7 when he heard Dusty Baker give a talk. So, Giants ties, too!
The A’s track record of developing major leaguers over the past 20 years is undeniable. His first few years as AGM were down years but from 2018-2021, the A’s were 5th in wins out of all 30 teams (316-230), and of course, you know with the A’s that’s largely because of a homegrown roster.
De Jon Watson (Houston Astros Special Adviser)
2025 will be his 40th year in professional baseball, according to this MLB.com article from November 2021. In that same piece, we got this quote from Nationals GM Mike Rizzo about the promotion:
“I am thrilled to move De Jon into this role as the Director of Player Development,” Rizzo said in a statement. “He has been an integral part of our success the last five seasons and has a documented track record of success in player development. He has a thorough understanding of our Minor League system and has the knowledge and experience to know what it takes to help players reach the Major Leagues.”
He started there in 2017. Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, and Trea Turner were all before his time, though maybe he had a hand in getting Soto to the big leagues in 2018 so smoothly?
Prior to this, he was the Diamondbacks’ Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations for a couple of years under President Tony La Russa and General Manager Dave Stewart. And before that, “Watson led the Dodgers’ player development system from 2007-14. His positions included vice president of player development and assistant GM for player development. While he oversaw player development, the Dodgers’ annual Winter Prospect Development program helped more than 50 players — including Clayton Kershaw, Matt Kemp and Kenley Jansen — get to the bigs.”
He was Cleveland’s Director of Pro Scouting from 2004-2006, Director of Scouting for Cincinnati (1998-2000) before transitioning to a pro scout for them (2001-2003); and, in 1997 he was an area scout for the Marlins.
Logan White (San Diego Padres Special Adviser)
He’s been with the Padres for nearly 10 years now and prior to that he was with the Dodgers for 13 years, the final 2 of which were as the Vice President of Amateur Scouting. The Padres’ press release touting his hiring notes, “White was instrumental in the drafting and signings of Clayton Kershaw, James Loney, Yasiel Puig and Hyun-Jin Ryu while with the Dodgers.”
More:
Since White started overseeing the Dodgers’ amateur draft in 2002, more than 50 selections have reached the Major Leagues, including a stretch of eight first-round picks from 2002–08, a group that includes James Loney (2002), Chad Billingsley (2003) and Clayton Kershaw (2006). In addition, White headed the Dodgers’ international scouting efforts from 2002–12, and was instrumental in helping sign Cuban outfielder Yasiel Puig, Korean pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu and Japanese pitchers Takashi Saito and Hiroki Kuroda.
Scott Sharp (Kansas City Royals AGM)
A former catcher who was drafted by the Reds in 1994, he was an area scout for the Rangers in 2005 and 2006 covering the Carolinas and Georgia. Did… did Buster Posey meet him and knows him from his college days?
He’s been with the Royals for 18 years and has an extensive resume with leading roles up and down the organization, including player development and baseball ops.
Bobby Evans (traded Bryan Reynolds for Andrew McCutchen)
Wow, the Giants could’ve really used Bryan Reynolds these past four years.
The flavor of candidate conjures a knee-jerk reaction of “Welp, looks like they’re going back to the straw hat days,” and I’ve decided to temper that feeling for the time being. I am a firm believer that no serious baseball exec honestly believes a team can go back to the way things were done at the turn of the century.
As an aside you should feel free to skip: this reads on paper as a thankless job, one where the public-facing aspect could very well be to serve as a human shield for team legend Buster Posey. Personally, I don’t like the optics of a Billy Owens or De Jon Watson (both black men) serving that particular function. Of course, I assume Buster Posey has thought of this and has some idea of how to handle it, but that’s an assumption based on me thinking the very best of a complete stranger, and such a notion has a spotty track record of success.
Going off of what I said many words ago, if Posey really did look at the infrastructure that was put in by previous management and thought, “Hmm, this is helpful,” then dumping the people who don’t have as good a sense of what makes a good baseball player in favor of those who seem to and giving them the tools to refine or improve the raw material they spot — or find with a diving rod or whatever — makes a lot of sense to me.
Buster Posey’s 2021 season is a perfect example of what I mean. He’s a guy who saw a roster that was supercharged by players drafted by the previous regime. Did Posey, Crawford, and Belt thrive just because of extra rest in 2020 and juiced balls in 2021? No. They got lots of help from a new coaching approach and data.
At the same time, here’s a survey of guys who either know Buster Posey personally, tried to draft him, or recognized him as a model player of his day and have a track record of success on their own. You can look at their resumes and imagine Posey thinking, “Wow, I remember playing those teams. They always seemed to have a group of young guys who were trouble,” and then using that as a jumping off point for what he wants the Giants to be. It could work! I’m not advocating for opposition.
On the other hand, like the obvious signs of a Posey spin-out, you could see this very easily going the way of Dave Stewart running the Diamondbacks under Tony La Russa. Or Bobby Evans following Brian Sabean. Buster Posey taking over the Giants feels like a market correction of sorts and it’s unclear if that’s a good thing. Craig Breslow hedges a bit in this comment to Susan Slusser, but I think he knows the truth:
“It’s hard to know if it’s a trend versus a market correction,” Breslow said of players taking top positions. “I think that baseball is trying to do everything possible to engage fans and fans, at times, can be outspoken about the rigid, analytical approach, and maybe this is like some proxy for trying to get back to a more traditional, a more baseball-experienced landscape.”
The middle path, of course, is blending people and technology, but this is not a conflict specific to baseball. Every industry is seeing technology outright replace people for “efficiency” (as in, an efficient increase in profit margin) and even the Giants have engaged in the practice of scaling back human scouting over the years, as recently as a month ago.
But we don’t know how much Buster Posey agrees with those changes. Whether he does or not, you could make the case that hiring an über-scout to head the baseball operation is a good way to turn into the skid of losing so many human beings; and then, it’s just a matter of giving them great tools — which if Farhan Zaidi did anything exceptionally well, it was probably developing those tools.
Now, Zaidi might well prove to be a product of the Statcast era more than anything and will need to make adjustments to his modeling to account for things like the stolen base and limited shifting. In era where strikeouts are way up, the Giants stayed middle of the pack. His approach was often Ben Grieve/John Mabry/Chad Bradford-inspired even when the game dictated youth and athleticism, and we know this because he said so himself the past two seasons, commenting that the team needed to get younger and more athletic.
If there’s one thing that’s certain about the above group of candidates, it’s that they are able to spot young, athletic players. Can those players pitch or hit in 2025 and beyond will be the question. Zaidi thought the formula for hitting success was raw power behind swing decisions optimized by platooning, and pitching prowess was demonstrated by limiting home runs and walks. Most of that worked to a degree, but after 6 years we see its limits. Buster Posey might want to try something else and I think he’s right. It’s time.
After all, Farhan Zaidi’s approach is not the best and final word on how to organize a roster or run a baseball operation nor is it an obstacle to overcome. What it was always missing was that extra 2% — that surprising talent or insight. A straw that stirred the drink. Maybe Buster Posey and a gang of old dogs with decades of experience can find that extra 2% more easily than a guy who was scrambling to keep his job could. Buster Posey won’t have any problem with job security and, like most of his baseball career, probably very few problems at all.