What might a Josh Naylor trade look like?

Jon Morosi suggests that the Guardians’ first baseman might be available in trade. If so, the San Francisco Giants should be all over it.

It was up until the Shohei Ohtani negotiations that I had been a proponent of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, who I’d viewed as a hard worker trying to be the next Ken Rosenthal. Now, I’m skeptical of his reporting when it comes to trades and free agency, but I’m compelled to invoke a rumor report of his from this morning because it serves our interests as San Francisco Giants fans:

Let it be known that Roger Munter of There R Giants has been banging the TRADE FOR JOSH NAYLOR drum the loudest this offseason. Just last week he reiterated just how big of a help the big guy (5’11”, 250 lbs) would be at first base.

Last month, I wrote about why Naylor might be a good fit for Buster Posey’s vision of the Giants’ lineup because of his ability to accumulate RBI. The past two seasons (2023 & 2024), he’s been as good of a hitter (122 wRC+) as Julio Rodriguez, Alex Bregman, Jorge Soler, Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, and Anthony Santander.

A week and a half ago, though, Brady brought up a reasonable demerit for such a trade:

I’ll be honest: I don’t quite get the Josh Naylor lore. He’s a fun player, and his power would be nice (though Oracle Park would be one of the worst parks for him, per Statcast). But he’s also a low-OBP first baseman with nondescript defense. While I do think the Giants need more power, it’s worth noting that Steamer projects Naylor to have a 124 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR, and Wade to have a 117 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR. That difference isn’t nothing, but it’s not enough for me to think the Giants should give up too much.

And, as Brady runs this site, I’m obligated to say that he’s right and we should move on.

Still.

That is a difference. He would be an upgrade. His game totals the past three seasons: 122, 121, 152. In 2022, he was recovering from a fractured ankle. In 2023, he missed time with an oblique strain. Not great injuries for a hitter, I’ll admit, but in 2024, he was fully healthy, hit 31 home runs and played in 152 games (633 PA). He’ll be 28 in 2025, set to earn around $12 million in arbitration; and, if he accepts the qualifying offer after 2025 (somewhere in the $21-$22 million range), will basically be under contract through his prime years.

LaMonte Wade Jr. by comparison (games played): 77, 135, 117. The cited Steamer projections have LWJ playing in 105 games while Naylor gets into 141.

And, just for fun, I went ahead and overlayed his 2024 spray chart on Oracle Park:

That’s like, what? 13 or 14 more home runs? For a little more fun, here’s his last three seasons overlayed:

A big ol’ galoot swatting taters into the stands and McCovey Cove? You don’t have to squint to see it — the picture’s right in front of you.

But! The problem is that the Giants would have to give up something to get him. It’s unclear to me why the Guards would even bother to part with him. He doesn’t make a lot of money and he’s the engine of their run scoring, because his power means other teams can’t just pitch around Jose Ramirez. As MLB Trade Rumors notes,

[…] it should be noted that a trade of Naylor isn’t a foregone conclusion. The Athletic’s Jason Lloyd wrote recently that he’d gotten the sense a trade of the slugging first baseman was becoming less likely, as the Guards weren’t impressed with anything offered up by other clubs.

Jerry DiPoto is one crazy son of a regression analysis, though, so you have to believe that if somebody’s reporting there’s trade interest that JP will find a way. Now, I’m not sure something like J.P. Crawford plus Luke Raley makes a lot of sense for Cleveland in terms of replacing Naylor in the aggregate, but then again, I don’t follow the Guards very closely — perhaps they do!

It was hard to imagine why the Astros were so caught up in getting Isaac Paredes, let alone giving up Kyle Tucker in the first place, but they were and they got him. And that’s where a trade gets really tricky: the Giants will have to give up a lot to get Josh Naylor.

Of course, the Giants were willing to give up a decent amount to get Tucker in the first place. We don’t have the shape of what those talks were, but we can use the actual Astros-Cubs deal as a way to create a ballpark figure. In that deal, the Astros got Isaac Paredes (~3.5-win player), RHP Hayden Wesneski (a backend starter with possible league average upside), and the Cubs’ #6 prospect (and MLB Pipeline’s #73 overall prospect) 3B Cam Smith.

What might the Giants have had to give up to plausibly compete with Chicago’s offer? Heliot Ramos, James Tibbs III, and Tristan Beck? And even looking at that, the Cubs had the better deal. Plus, as great of a player as Tucker is (a speed-power threat from the left side of the plate who has excelled in every season), I think that’s a lot for a team like the Giants that’s in a tender position, competition-wise. The Cubs acquired Paredes midseason, already have another third base prospect they can break in for 2025, and if adding in a just-turned 27-year old pitcher who has been replacement-level for three seasons nets you Kyle Tucker, you do that trade 300 times out of 100.

Now, the Tucker trade definitely wouldn’t be the starting point for a Naylor deal, but I need it as a starting point for this analysis. Naylor’s 6.8 fWAR over the past 3 seasons is 48% of Kyle Tucker’s fWAR value (14.1). It’s also 69% of Randy Arozarena’s value (9.8 fWAR), a deal made at the most recent trade deadline in which the Rays got three players from the Mariners in exchange (a starting pitching prospect, an outfield prospect, and a PTBNL). So, I’m thinking a trio of players who are basically around 55-60% of the Tucker deal.

There’s also the question of need. Yes, the Guardians need hitting (100 wRC+ in 2024), but they also need pitching — their 3.61 ERA (3rd in MLB) was thanks to a lights out bullpen that ran out of gas in the playoffs. Their starting staff that threw just 805 IP (24th). Of course, the Giants’ starting staff pitched fewer innings than that, so this would not seem to be an area of strength to deal from; and yet, I think this is exactly the case.

I think the shape of a trade fitting these conditions (and without the use of that infernal trade value site):

Two from this group:
Beck, Mason Black, Doval, Jordan Hicks, Sean Hjelle, Landen Roupp, Carson Whisenhunt,

PLUS

One from this group:
LWJ, Mike Yastrzemski, Casey Schmitt, Grant McCray, David Villar, Wade Meckler

You could convince me that two plus a PTBNL would work, but my recollection is that PTBNL are fairly uncommon during the offseason. Certainly, three players all on the 40-man roster doesn’t sound like a typical trade, but this is where my standing bias against Giants’ prospects really hurts my speculative abilities (such as they are).

Now, it’s at this point that I’m starting to ask myself, “Why would anyone reading this believe that the Giants give up/have to give up so much to get a galoot of a first baseman for, plausibly (though, not probably!), one year?” It’s a good question, theoretical question-haver, and I have an answer. This morning for The Athletic (sub required), Stephen J. Nesbitt & Chad Jennings asked, “Where have all the power-hitting first basemaen gone?”

One-dimensionality is being rooted out of today’s game, which explains why almost every front office and fanbase is interested in [Christian] Walker. Sure, he’s 34, but his blend of 30-homer power with three Gold Gloves is hard to find. Walker checks a lot of boxes, both old and new.

“I think they’re evaluating players more athletically,” [Sean] Casey said, “and they’re putting more guys over there who maybe aren’t just first basemen.”’

For Naylor’s sake, his defense hasn’t been bad. Last year, he had a 0 Outs Above Average at first base, but was +5 in 2023. He’s only had negative value in the field when he’s played in the outfield, which he wouldn’t be asked to do in San Francisco. As a 1B/DH? He’d hit the spot for a lineup that needs some thump from the left side of the plate. And it’s because of this need and the overall lack of this power quality in the market, I think the Guardians could extract a high cost from any team.

But this is why Dipoto’s interest warrants scrutiny. The Mariners are on a budget, too, and so maybe to mitigate the prospect cost he’s got enough room in the budget to, say, absorb 30-year old Myles Straw’s $15.55 million owed over the next three seasons. The 30-year outfielder was outrighted to the minor leagues by Cleveland this season despite having signed him to a mult-year deal. He is, effectively, Gorkys Hernandez at the plate. The Guardians might be more willing to part with Naylor if they knew the move would clear off $18-$19 million in 2025 and at least $7.4 million in 2026. Plus, they’d get a prospect or two.

I mention this because I think if Josh Naylor’s available, the Giants should be checking in with the Guardians. The only real counter to Dipoto’s accounting tricks is that the Guardians staff has a lot more familiarity with Giants prospects and players than a lot of other teams. A case where maybe familiarity might breed content.