There’s an obvious solution to the bullpen’s early season struggles.
The key to the season for the San Francisco Giants is the pitching. With Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, and Keaton Winn doing a great job in the season’s first month and Alex Cobb, Robbie Ray, and Blake Snell possibly joining the group/being effective in any meaningful way after the All-Star break, a fanbase turns its weary eyes towards the bullpen and wonders, “Well, is this any good? Can this possibly help the team?”
Right now, the Giants’ bullpen is a mess, and not in the “I’m kinda turned on by it” sort of way. Yes, there are solid arms in it already such as this post’s cover boy and bullpen workhorse, Ryan Walker (2-2, 2.81 ERA in 16 IP), along with Camilo Doval (5/5 save opportunities) and Tyler Rogers; but, as a group, it’s in a similar spot as last season in that it’s stumbling out of the gate.
2023 (thru 4/29): 102.1 IP, 9.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 20.2% HR/FB, 6.07 ERA (5.07 FIP) -0.8 fWAR
2024 (thru 4/29): 99.2 IP, 7.95 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, 14.1% HR/FB, 5.60 ERA (4.59 FIP) -0.5 fWAR
Last season had the wonkiness of Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, and Jakob Junis cycling through the pen but also bad performances from John Brebbia (5.84 ERA), Taylor Rogers (7.00 ERA) and Sean Hjelle (7.30 ERA) in the first month of 2023. You might also throw in the Giants’ defense as a contributing factor, and it might’ve been in the early part, but it closed out last April about league average or a little better.
This season, the Giants have a top-5 defense by significant measure, potentially worth half a win already (it’s at +5.9 Defensive Runs Above Average right now and I’m following the old thought that 10 runs = 1 win). We know from last season that the Giants were able to turn things around and have the best bullpen in the NL for a few months and it was their strength in bullpenning that got them to 61-49 record heading into September.
This season’s line shows a couple of problem points for the comparison and thinking the path to it being a strength is as straightforward as last season. The 7.95 K/9 is third-worst in the NL, 7th-worst in MLB. The 14.1% HR/9 is actually worst in MLB, tied with the Orioles, which means that if players were hitting more home runs, the Giants would be even worse off right now. These numbers are on a .301 BAbip, which means that, statistically, it’s unlikely that the bullpen has run into a string of bad luck.
If that’s the case, then there are very clear reasons why:
- Bullpen management
- Bullpen talent
- Small sample size
Let’s start with small sample size, because that’s not just an excuse for bad performance. You’re going to laugh — and you should — but over the past two weeks, the bullpen’s cumulative fWAR has been -0.1, making them 25th in MLB. That’s… better?
Some of that result can be tied to bullpen management wherein Bob Melvin and Bryan Price figure out the best way to deploy their assets. Melvin just used Camilo Doval in all three games of the Pittsburgh series and Ryan Walker is tied for the lead league with 16 appearances. That’s not what you want so early in the season — at least, not from where I sit. The Giants are going to need their bullpen arms later in the year as Keaton Winn, Kyle Harrison, and Jordan Hicks have to throttle back their workloads, but right now, it just seems like the coaching staff is trying to find a stable of stalwarts.
That makes sense because bullpens are historically volatile and you can’t count on the same group year after year. The Giants’ “Core Four” was a bit of a miracle, as you know, but that example plus the Giants’ 2024 reliance on a few key guys really emphasizes the need for bullpen talent. Do the Giants have it?
Right now, you could argue that Luke Jackson — slated to be John Brebbia 2.0 — has a long way to go to prove he’s in the same discussion as John Brebbia. Erik Miller has managed to pitch himself into the conversation as someone who might be trustworthy and, at least for now, everybody should expect Taylor Rogers to pitch back towards his career averages until evidence suggests otherwise. But, Landen Roupp’s learning curve might not be something the Giants can tolerate right now, and along with Sean Hjelle and Landen Roupp, the team has a lot of fungibility in the pen.
So, the trouble with the bullpen is that it’s early. The team is experiencing a similar problem this year as they did last year and it all sorted itself out. From a coaching standpoint, Melvin and Price are making pitching plans and substitutions based on their own processes that are in consultation with whatever decision trees the front office’s quants produce.
That’s a situation that’s likely to evolve as the season goes along if there’s a need for it, so as much as I’ve been anti-Bryan Price, I’m not going to see “coaching decisions” as the biggest issue facing the group right now. From a talent standpoint, there’s still time to add players from the minors or elsewhere and have those additions provide meaningful impact. We’re never more than a waiver claim away from the Giants suddenly having a useful guy.
But with a lineup that’s more likely to fail than to succeed, the margin for error on the pitching side becomes that much slimmer and so the sooner the bullpen can start to feel like the rotation, the better off the Giants will be.