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It’s time to talk about the most 2024 player they have on the roster right now.
What’s not to like about Tyler Fitzgerald? His combination of power and speed is basically unique within the organization. If the San Francisco Giants are going to make a push to reach El Dorado the 3rd Wild Card, he’s going to need to play virtually everyday.
I had planned to write about him before the team’s last winning hiccup (when they won home series against the Cubs and Dodgers) as part of a post that listed some suggestions for shaking things up. Now seems like an even better time to write this.
If you’ve seen him play, then how he helps the squad should be self-evident, but it’s fun to write up what a player’s good at instead of looking deeper into numbers to suggest how they might break out of a slump.
We’ll start with the obvious: he can fly — er, run really fast. His 28.7 feet per second sprint speed is 97th percentile in MLB this season. To put that in a clearer context, that’s top 15 in MLB. He’s tied with Evan Carter of the Rangers and Jackson Chourio of the Brewers and just ahead of Byron Buxton, Corbin Carroll, and Trea Turner. No, he won’t beat Bobby Witt Jr. (30.4 ft/sec) or Elly De La Cruz (30.1) in a foot race, but at least the Giants could run him out there as some close competition. Tyler Fitzgerald is one of the fastest players in the league.
Despite just 63 batted balls, there are some interesting things going on with his contact. Obviously, his .323/.400/.602 line (30-for-93 in 105 PA with 6 doubles, a triple, and 6 home runs) is 100% a mirage, right? That’s such a small sample size and that .421 batting average on balls in play is so indicative of a player who’s had a lot of good luck in a short amount of time that not only should we be skeptical of his abilities, we should discount them entirely since he’s a Giants prospect. Look, I’m mostly with you. He’s due for a Rece Hinds or Ben Rice-ean crash of epic proportions, and very soon.
A 28.6% strikeout rate isn’t great and the 10.5% walk rate is based on 11 in 105 plate appearances. It’s just that when you look at Statcast’s expected stats, he looks pretty solid: he has a .427 actual weighted on base average (wOBA) against a .345 expected. That +.082 variance is right up there with Rece Hinds (+.083) and Juan Yepez (+.085). Both of those players have had basically half the plate appearances as Fitzgerald, though. The other major difference that works against Fitzgerald in the comp is that the expected wOBA for both are much greater than Fitzgerald’s. Still, that .345 expected — which is based on the quality of contact — is right in line with Matt Chapman and Tyler O’Neill and Teoscar Hernandez, and CJ Abrams. And if you expand the field a little, Patrick Bailey and Trea Turner are just ahead of him with .347.
Because his sampling is so small, Statcast hasn’t cemented a lot of his measures, but all of his expected measures (xwOBA, xBA, xSLG) are all above average. He’s barrelling the ball above average, hitting the ball on the screws with the best of the best, and isn’t chasing pitches out of the zone. That said, he does have a lot of swing and miss, of course.
![](https://www.sanfranciscosports.today/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Tyler_Fitzgerald_Statcast_ao_7_25_24.jpg)
Tyler Fitzgerald looks like an above league average hitter.
It’s the fielding and baserunning that gets a little tricky. Statcast loves him in the outfield (+2 Outs Above Average in center and left combined) and thinks he’s good at second base (+1 OAA) versus shortstop (-1). That arm strength rating doesn’t really suggest a good every day shortstop, but as a second baseman and center fielder? You can see why shortstop is a tempting position, though, because his speed might make him a more natural fit there than Brett Wisely. He has no negative measures by the stats in this area (even FanGraphs has him at +1.1 Defensive Runs Above Average and +1.4 BaseRunning runs), and the mistakes we’ve seen him make are of the mental variety, which conventional wisdom suggests should be sorted out through more playing time. Tyler Fitzgerald is a quality versatile defender and at least an average baserunner.
That versatility is the key. I don’t know if Fitzgerald will blossom into an All-Star, but he very well could be an important every day figure in the lineup because he can play multiple important positions. His swing & miss gets balanced by his power & speed, and that’s a hitter’s profile that’s perfectly modern, totally 2024. It’s going to come down to maintaining that walk rate, because the power won’t disappear. The list of qualified players in the 10-11% walk rate range with a .335+ xwOBA is a good mix: Matt Chapman (11%), Marcell Ozuna (10.7%), Taylor Ward & Brent Rooker (10.6%), Cal Raleigh (10.5%), Yordan Alvarez, George Springer, and Christian Walker (10.3%), and Ketel Marte (10.1%).
In conclusion, Tyler Fitzgerald is a man of many talents. He’s one of the fastest players in the league who happens to be an above average hitter with defensive versatility and enough speed to take advantage of the new opportunities afforded baserunners because of the defensive shifting & pitcher throw over limitations. He’s the Giants’ not-so-secret weapon.