After recovering from Tommy John surgery, left-hander Robbie Ray is primed to make a significant impact for the Giants, especially with the loss of another left-hander, Blake Snell. Ray is expected to slot in as the number two starter behind Logan Webb, injury permitting. The Giants acquired Ray in a trade that sent outfielder Mitch Haniger and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani to the Seattle Mariners, a move that many considered a steal at the time. Now, it’s finally time for the Giants to reap the rewards.
Ray opted into a two-year, $50 million contract, a deal that seems fair in light of recent pitching contracts. For comparison, Yusei Kikuchi, who is 33 and has posted an ERA of around 4 in recent years, signed a three-year, $63 million deal. Additionally, the Giants were able to offload Haniger’s $16 million contract for this year, which is a significant financial relief, especially considering Haniger has posted -1.3 WAR over the last two seasons.
Five no-hit innings for Robbie Ray in his @SFGiants debut! pic.twitter.com/yOCMsaxnVU
— MLB (@MLB) July 25, 2024
Giants Pin Hopes on Robbie Ray’s Recovery and Performance
We saw it for the first time in spring training, where he threw two scoreless innings. All-Star Brent Rooker missed a changeup for strike one. Then he struck out on a slider. This shows the benefit of having such a pitch, particularly to righties. Having three pitches as a starter makes a big difference. Suddenly, you become less predictable and hitters don’t sit on the slider.
With his recent injury behind him, Robbie Ray entered his first offseason in a while where he could focus on improving his game. Who better to turn to for advice than the reigning American League Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal? Ray openly thanked Skubal for sharing “the kitchen sink” when he asked about his change-up grip. Maria Guardado of MLB.com highlighted the newfound relationship and its positive impact on Ray’s approach. The changeup has always been a pitch Ray struggled with, often relying on his fastball-slider combo. However, as he ages, he’ll need to adapt since he will lose some velocity on his four-seamer.
The Impact of His Injury
The impacts of Tommy John surgery are well-known, particularly when it comes to limiting control. However, being able to start games at the end of 2024 was a significant benefit for Robbie Ray. He made seven starts, and while he was shaky at times, it was a valuable experience for his recovery. Ray admitted that “everything just seemed so foreign” when he began his rehab, so his 4.70 ERA shouldn’t be seen as a reflection of his future performance.
Projections from both ZiPs and Steamer are optimistic, expecting 28 starts with a 3.91 ERA. Still, Giants fans will be hoping Ray can recapture his 2021 form in Toronto, where he made 32 starts and posted a 2.84 ERA. However, injury concerns remain a key factor. His 2024 season was cut short by a calf strain, and he has only thrown 32 innings in the past two years. As spring training progresses, fatigue-related injuries could become a concern, particularly in the second half of the year.
Main Photo: © Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
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