One final look at Spring Training.
Spring Training came and Spring Training left. It was a glorious time, and if the San Francisco Giants repeat their spring performance in the regular season, they’ll have the best record in franchise history and finish within 20 games of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
I spent a lot of the spring yelling at anyone who would listen that Cactus League performance doesn’t matter, which is of course patently false. Try telling Christian Koss that it doesn’t!
So, with a full spring behind us and an Opening Day ahead of us, here are some players who arrived at Scottsdale in February and have, in the month-and-a-half since, seen their stock rise or fall, with a brief hiatus for a group in the middle.
Stock: Up!
This group of players came to camp with one reputation and left with a better one, by virtue of performance, circumstance, or both. There’s a little more pep in their step than there was at the start of February.
Christian Koss
Cactus League stats: 14-41, 1 home run, 5 walks, 7 strikeouts, 1 stolen base, .938 OPS, 150 wRC+
The Giants opened camp with three rostered infielders battling for one backup spot. By virtue of contract situation, Koss was behind all three on the depth chart, and I’d certainly argue that he opened camp behind fellow non-roster invitee Sergio Alcántara, as well.
And then he proceeded to not only leapfrog Alcántara, but at least two of the rostered infielders as well. That, combined with an injury to Jerar Encarnación that afforded the Giants an additional roster spot to play with, means that Koss did one of the coolest things a ballplayer can do: make the Opening Day roster as an NRI with no big league experience.
Koss being added to the roster made him a lock for this portion of this article, but he was firmly in it when I started the draft more than a week ago, when I still thought he had no chance of breaking camp with the team. He outlasted Alcántara and Osleivis Basabe by a few weeks, rising up the depth chart and becoming the clear first name to be called should anything happen to Willy Adames. He left Arizona with a whole lot more than he brought to the desert.
Sam Huff
Cactus League stats: 10-32, 2 home runs, 7 walks, 14 strikeouts, .995 OPS, 167 wRC+
It was always clear that the Giants were high on Huff: they opted to keep him on the 40-man roster over Blake Sabol, despite the fact that he did not have options (and Sabol did), and despite the fact that the team already had a handsomely-compensated backup catcher. So his stock was decently high when camp began.
Then Tom Murphy got hurt, and Huff’s stock rose by proxy.
And then Huff had a sensational spring, and his stock rose further.
Huff’s role as the Opening Day backup catcher was all but solidified when it became clear that Murphy would miss the start of the season. But the severity of Murphy’s injury, combined with Huff showing why he was a top-100 prospect in the not-too-distant past, means the Giants likely now view Huff as a long-term asset, rather than a stopgap or an emergency option.
Landen Roupp
Cactus League stats: 12 innings, 8 hits, 1 walk, 14 strikeouts, 3.75 ERA, 3.23 FIP
Roupp entered camp bridging the gap between the high profile young arms (Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong), and the rest of the intriguing young starters on the 40-man roster (Mason Black, Carson Seymour, Carson Ragsdale, Keaton Winn, and Trevor McDonald).
He ended up winning the fifth starter role, and fairly comfortably, if the Giants are to be believed. More importantly, he established himself as one of the Giants best arms.
This time last year, Roupp impressed so much in Spring Training that he made the Opening Day roster as a reliever, despite never having pitched in AAA. He ended up looking a little overmatched, and was optioned twice in the first five weeks of the season.
That will not happen this year. He entered camp as a pitcher oozing with potential but lacking in establishment, and exited as an established arm in the stable that represents the Giants strength. I would be shocked if he spends any time in the Minors this year, unless for rehab.
Joel Peguero
Cactus League stats: 7.2 innings, 6 hits, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA, 2.04 FIP
Peguero didn’t make the Opening Day roster, but I fully expect him to make his MLB debut at some point this season. That’s not something you can usually say about an NRI who is in their first year with the team.
It’s Peguero’s 10th season as a professional baseball player, and his fifth organization. He’s looking for his first game in the Majors and, after winning the Barney Nugent Award, can be optimistic that it will arrive soon. I’ve never seen a pitcher look so casual while hitting triple digits, and it’s a look that could benefit the Giants. For all their bullpen awesomeness, they’re lacking in high heat.
Hayden Birdsong
Cactus League stats: 12 innings, 6 hits, 0 walks, 18 strikeouts, 0.75 ERA, 1.23 FIP
Birdsong is surely disappointed to have lost the fifth starter competition, but he cleanly leap-frogged Harrison on the depth chart, and pitched so well that the Giants were forced to find a spot for him in the bullpen.
There are reasons to be concerned that the Giants are putting one of their best young starters in the bullpen, but there are even more reasons for excitement with Birdsong, especially after hearing Justin Verlander and Patrick Bailey talk about him.
After 2024, we all dreamed about how good Birdsong could be. After Spring Training, we have more reason to believe those dreams could come true.
Stock: Something or other
I’m not doing a group of players whose stock went sideways, because that’s most players, good and bad. Matt Chapman had a great camp, but did his stock actually change? Ryan Walker gave up more runs than he usually does, but is his stock down? Certainly not.
So these are not players whose stock went sideways. These are players who you could make a strong case for having rising or dropping stock, depending on which window your fandom is looking at things through.
Bryce Eldridge
Cactus League stats: 2-12, 1 home run, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts, .705 OPS, 75 wRC+
There was some talk from fans, leading up to Spring Training, that Eldridge could break camp with the team. It was never particularly realistic, but then again, star athletes rarely travel along realistic trajectories.
Eldridge opened camp by blasting an absolutely mammoth home run, then struck out in almost every other plate appearance, and was in the first group of camp cuts.
It’s hard to say his stock rose when the “Expect By” date in your head probably is further away for Eldridge than it was when camp started. But it’s hard to say his stock fell when he had the single most impressive swing of any Giants player this spring.
Marco Luciano
Cactus League stats: 2-19, 1 home run, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts, .490 OPS, 30 wRC+
Perhaps I’m being too kind here, and Luciano actually deserves to be in the stock down bracket. After all, he had one of the worst batting lines on the team and was in the first wave of camp cuts — hardly a ringing endorsement for a bat-first player in their final option year.
And yet I can’t help but feel like Luciano’s outlook is better than his numbers would suggest. Bob Melvin said, when Luciano was optioned, that the team was very happy with his at-bats, and just wanted him to get some consistent playing time in the outfield; his stats may not back that up, but I do agree with Melvin, as Luciano looked much more comfortable in the batter’s box than last year. More importantly, his batted-ball data was a massive leap over the rough numbers that he saw last year.
Luciano also looked quite comfortable in left field, suggesting his move to the outfield could be fairly smooth and quick.
So while you sure as hell can’t give a former top prospect slugger rising stock for sporting a .490 OPS, I do get the feeling that he was optioned early to help him get up to speed in the outfield, and that the team will be eager to find an extended opportunity for him sometime early in the year.
Jerar Encarnación
Cactus League stats: 16-53, 2 home runs, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts, .856 OPS, 113 wRC+
To the surprise of some (including yours truly), Encarnación entered camp already a roster lock. The Giants wanted to give him an extended look, which is understandable if you’ve ever glanced over his Baseball Savant page.
And then Encarnación made the Giants look smart by obliterating baseballs in the early going, and putting up outrageous numbers.
Stock up!
But he slumped in the final weeks, was absent from a lot of lineups as it became clear that he was behind Wilmer Flores on the depth chart, and ended camp by suffering an injury that will sideline him for at least a month.
Stock down!
So, as was the case with Encarnación all year, there are reasons to look at what he’s done lately and feel optimistic or pessimist.
Stock: Down!
These are all talented baseball players, but they’re entering the season in a more difficult place than the entered camp in.
Tom Murphy
Cactus League stats: 0 plate appearances, 2 epidurals
Murphy has caught a lot of flack from the fanbase for having the misfortune of getting injured right as Joey Bart remembered how to play baseball. I was looking forward to him showing the fanbase just how talented he is.
Unfortunately, his chance to do that got delayed … and may never happen. Murphy missed all of camp, and is on the 60-Day IL to start the season. There’s a chance that in two months he’s fully healthy and the Giants are in dire need of his bat; but there’s an even better chance that in two months he’ll either still be injured, or arrive at good health only to find that Huff has stolen the job permanently.
Mason Black
Cactus League stats: 3.1 innings, 5 hits, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts, 13.50 ERA, 12.73 FIP
At some level, you can make a similar argument for Black as I made for Luciano: that he was in the first group of camp cuts so that he could continue working as a starter in Minor League camp, instead of getting stuck pulling relief duty in the Cactus League.
But it’s a harder case to make after how much Black got knocked around in his brief appearance in Scottsdale. And it’s hard to shake that feeling that he’s about 10th on the starting pitcher depth chart right now.
Osleivis Basabe
Cactus League stats: 2-10, 0 home runs, 0 walks, 0 strikeouts, .400 OPS, -1 wRC+
When camp began, Basabe was one of three backup infielders on the 40-man roster, and he had a clear area of expertise. While Brett Wisely and Casey Schmitt offered more offensive potential, Basabe was the best middle-infield defender of the group, likely to get the call if something happened to Adames.
But he didn’t have a strong camp, and it was presumably cut short by an injury (I never heard anything about that, but Basabe stopped playing after the first week). And as camp went on, it became clear that Koss had passed him on the organizational totem pole, which was made official when Koss earned a roster spot.
The Giants have an iron man at third base, an iron man at shortstop, and a young, healthy second baseman who deserves to play everyday. They probably don’t need four other infielders on the 40-man roster, and Basabe ranks last of those four. I’d assume his spot on the 40-man roster is in peril.
Kyle Harrison
Cactus League stats: 6.2 innings, 13 hits, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts, 10.80 ERA, 5.38 FIP
Everything seemed to go wrong for Harrison this spring, both in and out of his control. He was dealt a setback before camp, as he was rehabbing a shoulder injury. He was dealt a setback at the start of camp, missing the first week due to an illness and then frantically trying to regain the double-digit pounds he had lost. His performance — likely due, in part, to both of those setbacks — was poor in the Cactus League, while the two pitchers he was in competition with shined.
As a result, the former top southpaw pitching prospect in baseball is back in AAA to start the year. The Giants are still speaking as though they have much belief in Harrison, and the injury-prone rotation will surely open up opportunities throughout the year. But it’s also fairly clear that he’s third on the young starting pitcher depth charts, and that’s a fairly shocking place for him to be.
Brett Wisely
Cactus League stats: 13-50, 1 home run, 6 walks, 14 strikeouts, .835 OPS, 122 wRC+
Wisely had a quality spring, so it feels weird putting him in the stock down bucket. But stock isn’t all about performance. He was viewed all spring as the favorite to win the backup infielder spot, due in part to his handedness; not only did he get beat out by Schmitt, but Encarnación’s injury allowed the Giants to carry two backup infielders, and Wisely still didn’t get the nod, despite the Giants having exactly zero left-handed bats on the bench.
The Giants will shuffle through players this year — as all teams do — and Wisely will almost certainly get a decent chunk of playing time at some point. But he’s clearly not in their plans the same way he was two months ago.
Sean Hjelle
Cactus League stats: 8 innings, 11 hits, 2 walks, 14 strikeouts, 6.75 ERA, 2.61 FIP
Like Wisely, Hjelle performed well this spring. His FIP is much more indicative of how he pitched than his ERA is: he lived in the strike zone, struck out tons of batters, and only had an inflated ERA because he got BABIP’d to death in a few outings.
Hjelle felt like a lock going into camp but instead — and partially because they decided to put Birdsong in the bullpen — he’ll open the year with AAA Sacramento, a year after appearing in 58 games. He’ll certainly be back, but he’s now tasked with earning a role rather than maintaining one, and that’s a slightly scarier proposition for a player in their final option year.
Now let’s start the season and see where the stock goes from here. Hopefully for the team, as a whole, things are on the way up.