It’s clear the Padres are glad to be rid of Bob Melvin.
A few weeks back, I picked the Padres as the team that would need to collapse in order for the Giants to sneak into the postseason. But that was when I was writing from a place of generosity. This is a Giants fan site, so why not give the Giants the benefit of the doubt? They’ll be competitive these next few weeks! Wow, was I wrong.
The Padres are good, the Giants are not. Maybe a week from now we can start calling the Giants bad, but for now let’s just say they’re unwatchable. The Padres, though, have managed to contend while rebuilding, and they’re doing with young and exciting players. But not too young. It’s a balance.
Just 90 plate appearances separate the San Francisco Giants from the San Diego Padres in the batter split of players 28 and younger. The Giants have seen 2,424 plate appearances from players in that age range, the Padres have seen 2,334. The difference? This group of Giants have hit 7% below the leage average (93 wRC+; .246/.293/.397) and are ranked 24th in MLB. The Padres are 7th thanks to a 107 wRC+ (.266/.321/.410).
When you think of younger hitters, you think of high strikeout hitters, but that’s not the case at all with San Diego. The 28 and under cohort has a strikeout rate of just 15.6%, the best result in MLB. The Giants’ younger hitters, meanwhile, strikeout 23.8% of the time (18th) while posting just a 5.9% walk rate — that’s the worst walk rate in MLB. Worse than even the White Sox (6.3%). Of course, the Padres don’t walk much either (6.9% – 27th) but they make the most contact out of anybody (82.6% contact rate), just ahead of the Diamondbacks (81.9%) — I’m still talking about the younger position players here, of course.
I’m fixated on the youngsters because they’ve got this guy Jackson Merrill, their 1st round draft pick in 2021, selected 27th overall (the Giants got Will Bednar at #14). They’ve got a whole lot of other guys, too, but I’m just going to focus on him for a moment.
In this, his age-21 season, he’s hitting .292/.323/.498 (.821 OPS) with 22 home runs, 82 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. Here in the second half, he’s 51-for-159 with 10 HR 36 RBI. He has also been San Diego’s Mr. Clutch. On August 25th, he hit his 5th walkoff home run of the season. As MLB.com noted:
Even before Merrill’s latest walk-off, he’d set a record for a player age 21 or younger with the most game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the ninth inning or later (since at least 1961). He now has five of them. No one else in the Majors has more than three this year.
It’s not so much that the Padres have a dynamic offense (like, say, Arizona’s), it’s that they have an interesting one. A lineup that fits their park and compliments their pitching staff (3rd-most valuable in MLB), and a mix of young and older players performing solid to great. It’s a balance the Giants haven’t figured out in three seasons now, and they’ve even drifted away from pitching aspect that made them so successful last decade. To wit:
2020-2023: 3.81 ERA / 3.72 FIP (team pitching staff)
2024: 4.23 ERA / 3.90 FIP
The apt descriptors for the 2010-2014 might apply to these Padres: pesky hitters backed by dominant pitchers.
The Padres traded away Juan Soto in the offseason (along with bane of the Giants’ existence Trent Grisham), let Josh Hader, Blake Snell, and Michael Wacha walk, and put their manager Bob Melvin out on the curb for anyone to have — and they got better. Much better. On track to have either the 3rd or 4th-best season in franchise history (by winning %).
We’re one month out from the 10-year anniversary of AJ Preller’s hire as the team’s GM. The franchise has seen a lot of ups and downs with him:
- this year’s manager, Mike Shildt, is the 7th of his tenure;
- they’re just 716-782 since the start of 2015 (his first full season running the team);
- this season will be just their 3rd playoff appearance in his 10 years;
- he was suspended by MLB in 2016 for failing to disclose all of Drew Pomeranz’s medical history to the Red Sox;
- signed Eric Hosmer to an 8-year, $144 million contract in 2018 (which, admittedly, could’ve been more an ownership thing than his call)
But he’s made a lot of big trades both with high profile players coming to and leaving the team — he’s been hyperactive, a lot of activity without accomplishment. Is this season’s success a reflection of him slowing down with age or simply finding the right mix of player and personnel. If the Giants gave their current President of Baseball Operations 10 full years, would they see the same results?
Probably not, because the Padres have such a headstart on the Giants in terms of player development. They’ve also gotten luckier/been better with their drafts. In the old days, Brian Sabean and Bobby Evans were criticized for drafting high floor guys who’d maybe get to the big leagues faster but wouldn’t have much of a ceiling beyond that. The Padres do seem to have a bit more 5-tool talent — higher ceiling guys — than the Giants do, but then again, so do most teams.
At the end of this season, the Padres will be in the postseason and the Giants will not. The Padres will also have more regular season wins since the start of 2021 than the GIants. The current records are:
SFG: 336-291
SDP: 330-298
In this span, the Padres traded for and then traded away Juan Soto — and got better. The Giants were never in a position to acquire him and nothing they’ve done in a few years has been enough to measure up against any division rival except the Rockies. Forget trying to keep pace with the Dodgers. Giants fans have been reduced to hoping that some day, the Giants might be as good as the San Diego Padres.
We might not live to see it happen, but if we do, it will feel gross.
Series details
Who: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Where: Petco Park, San Diego, California
When: Friday (6:40pm PT), Saturday (5:40pm PT), Sunday (1:10pm PT)
National broadcasts: Apple TV+ (Friday),
Projected starters
Friday: Mason Black vs. Michael King
Saturday: Logan Webb vs. Dylan Cease
Sunday: TBD vs. Joe Musgrove
Where they stand
Padres, 80-62 (3rd in NLW, WC #1), 676 RS / 606 RA | Last 10 games: 6-4
Giants, 69-72 (4th in NLW, -6.5 WC), 601RS / 623 RA | Last 10 games: 3-7
Padres to watch
Dylan Cease & Michael King: To get their top two starting pitchers, all San Diego had to do was trade Juan Soto, their #5 prospect, their #7 prospect, their #8 prospect, a middle reliever, and Trent Grisham. It worked out great, though, because Cease and King have been dynamite (7.3 fWAR combined) and the lineup has weathered Soto’s departure (and Grisham’s defense) with Merrill’s emergence, Jurickson Profar’s contract year explosion, and a bounceback season from Jake Cronenworth — oh, and just for fun, AJ Preller acquired Luis Arraez early in the season to supplement the lineup.
Chris Sale will be this year’s NL Cy Young (6.1 fWAR), but Cease has been as valuable as Logan Webb (4.0) while being a completely different pitcher (both of them are top 5 in fWAR). Michael King, meanwhile, has been as valuable as Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, and Corbin Burnes.
Jurickson Profar: 2012-2023: .239/.322/.383. 2024: .278/.383/.461. This may well wind up Profar’s one and only true great season (he was an All-Star this season), but he’s always been a Giants killer. In 64 career games (228 PA), he’s hit .296/.364/.442. Not his very best split against a team (in 235 PA vs. AZ it’s .306/.415/.482) but pretty close. He also well and truly hates the Giants — or, at least, Giants fans:
Then, Profar unloaded.
“You can talk whatever you want, you paid to watch the game, you can talk,” Profar said. “But these guys are the worst in the league. They can talk, but as soon as you try to throw stuff, that’s different.”
Things got a little heated a few innings later when Profar jawed with a Giants fan, who eventually threw a beer bottle at him.
Xander Bogaerts: The cautionary tale type of player when it comes to big free agent deals. The Padres tried to buy their way into relevance a couple of offseasons ago, giving the former Red Sock $280 million over 11 years (it was the first year of a new CBA). But Bogaerts is a middle infielder and year one of the deal would be his age-30 season. He had a 130 OPS+ in his age 27-29 seasons, but as soon as he turned 30 and switched leagues, he dropped down to 117 (.285/.350/.440) and Bob Melvin wanted to move him off shortstop because of his defensive inabilities. The Padres chucked Melvin and didn’t take his advice until this season. He’s now a second baseman (Ha-Seong Kim, injured and who may or may not return this weekend, is the shorstop) but having the worst full season of his career (.269/.314/.375 – 93 OPS+) of his career since his first full season (2014).
Giants to watch
LaMonte Wade Jr.: I saw some signs of vitality in those legs in that Arizona series. Does that mean he’s finally healthy enough to hit? He’s just 6-for-his-last-43 with 8 walks, but 2 doubles and 2 homers… that’s something. Ehhh? Ehhhh?
Tyler Fitzgerald: Probably the closest the Giants will ever get to a Jackson Merrill or Fernando Tatis Jr. or even a Jurickson Profar (2024 version). He hasn’t homered in nearly three and a half weeks, but in four September games, he’s 7-for-16 with 3 doubles. That’s something. Ehhh? Ehhhh?
Logan Webb: After going back and forth with Sean about shutting down Logan Webb following his disastrous start against the Marlins and the effective end of the Giants’ playoff hopes, I guess I mean after this start. Webb has, historically, been quite good against San Diego (2.55 ERA in 12 games), and as mentioned above, he and Cease have been equally valuable this season. It’ll be a tale of two styles, even if it’s obvious that Dylan’s team is much, much better than Logan’s.
Prediction time