![San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies](https://www.sanfranciscosports.today/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2163132257.0.jpg)
Which team has given up the most?
Over their last 30 games, both the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have won 13 and lost 17. The only real difference is that the Rockies won 10 of those at home while the Giants won 8 at home. Well, okay, the other big difference is that the Rockies pitching has been much worse (5.27 ERA vs. 4.45) because Colorado’s pitching is always bad. Does that give the Giants the advantage in this 4-game series?
Hmm. Who cares? The Giants aren’t good. They might not be bad, either, but it’s hard to see that right now. The Giants don’t need to win any of their games right now, because if you believe that they will reach 84 wins — which is the theoretical threshold for clinching the 3rd Wild Card based on last year’s standings — then they only need to win 35 more games, which they can do at any time over these final 58, including winning their final 35.
What I’m wondering is which team has given up the most. We know that it’s a hopeless feeling to be a Colorado Rocky because every season begins with the premise “100 losses… unless?” but there’s something freeing about knowing there are no expectations and nothing you do matters. Even if you play well, your front office will probably stand pat. They have no idea what they’re doing.
So, when I see Cal Quantrill getting into it with Reese McGuire, I think, “Wow, there’s a player unburdened by their context, just performing in isolation.”
Here’s the video of Cal Quantrill calling out Reese McGuire for the parking lot incident…
pic.twitter.com/sKz3sm8zVb— Boston Strong (@BostonStrong_34) July 24, 2024
And I wonder if this is a stronger competitive position to be in heading into this weekend. The Giants players are probably burdened by the yoke of expectations. A lot of those players came into the season thinking they were still good ballplayers who were joining up with a good team. Neither is true, and so now you have to wonder if the in-season jolt of being a little league team compared to the Dodgers and other good teams (30-40 vs. .500+ teams) actually gives the advantage to the Rockies this weekend.
How quickly can the Giants recover from the realization that they’re individually and collectively not good?
Professional athletes have that mental component that allows them to turn the page quickly. I suspect the Giants (and the Rockies) have that ability, which means it’ll come back to that pesky question of talent. The Giants are 10.5 games better than the Rockies overall, but the Giants are still a sub-.500 team. Have been for most of the season. Even in May, when they went 15-13, they were still outscored 135-133.
The trade deadline is Tuesday at 3pm Pacific, which means these are the last 4 games before it. If the Giants sweep, they’ll be at 53-55 with 54 games remaining. I regret to inform you that the Giants are not going to sweep. Now, to be fair, I’m only saying this because the Giants haven’t swept a series all season. For some, this is a sign that they’re due, and since they’re due, it’s best to assume that they will which means that they’ll be buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline. That’s certainly one decision tree to follow.
I’m going to go with this: the only interesting thing about this series is the scheduled day-night doubleheader. The Giants are supposed to sweep a team designed to lose 100+ games every season, so if that happens, it will not really demonstrate one way or the other this team’s chances the rest of the way. Their 30-40 mark against teams .500 or better (.429) means they’re just 19-15 (.559) against sub-.500 teams. Tonight is the first of a 16-game stretch where the Giants will face a sub-.500 team. They’re a sub-.500 team too, of course, but we’re supposed to think they’re not because of what they did in the offseason.
The Rockies, meanwhile, are 27-39 (.409) against .500 or better, which means they’re just 11-26 (.297) against sub-.500 teams — that’s pretty wacky, because 3 of those wins have come against the Giants. So if the Giants sweep them then the season trend suggests they’re actually a bad team? The Dodgers proved once and for all that these Giants aren’t half as good as the best teams in the sport. Was Nick Ahmed’s game-winning home run enough to drive the Giants’ morale into a ditch? That’s what we’ll find out.
Anyway, .559 of 16 is 8.9 which means that the Giants, should their season-long trendlines continue, figure to go just 9-7 over this stretch. On the other hand, maybe tonight kicks off a 16-game winning streak? 14-2? Could they go 13-3? 12-4? 11-5? I doubt it, but maybe? That’s what being a fan is all about. Total delusion.
Series details
Who: Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California
When: Friday (7:15pm PT), Saturday #1 (4:05pm PT), Saturday #2 (90 min after #1), Sunday (1:05pm PT)
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Friday: Kyles Freeland vs. Harrison
Saturday – Gm 1: Ryan Feltner vs. Blake Snell
Saturday – Gm 2: TBD vs. Hayden Birdsong
Sunday: Austin Gomber vs. TBD
Where they stand
Rockies, 38-65 (5th in NLW), 445 RS / 602 RA | Last 10 games: 5-5
Giants, 49-55 (4th in NLW, -3.0 WC), 452 RS / 484 RA | Last 10 games: 4-6
Rockies to watch
Ryan McMahon: I don’t know what prompted the esteemed and wonderful Roger Munter to post this —
Ryan McMahon is not getting traded.
— Roger Munter (@rog61) July 26, 2024
— maybe he’s crying out because McMahon deserves to be on a better team? The Rockies’ All-Star has an .802 OPS on the season with 15 home runs and against the Giants he’s 7-for-31 with 9 walks against just 6 strikeouts. Figure he’ll have a big series regardless of the win-loss result (he’s 4-for-12 with a home run in Oracle this season).
Ezequiel Tovar: He smoked the Giants last week, going 4-for-9 with a pair of home runs. He’s done very well at Oracle over the years, too, with a line of .292/.299/.490 (.789 OPS) in 23 games (98 PA). It’s very funny to me to point out to you that he has just 1 walk in those 98 plate appearances (against 22 strikeouts) because it’s all but certain that he’ll draw at least 1 walk in this series, and that should come as a huge shock!
The Rockies’ bullpen: Now, this is the final series of the year against the Rockies, and the Rockies haven’t won a season series against the Giants since 2020. It seems unlikely that the Rockies would sweep all four games on the road as 1) it’s very tough to sweep any team, especially on the road and especially in a 4-game series; 2) they’re just 5-23 at Oracle Park since 2021; and, 3) they’ve had one of the worst bullpens all season.
But since the All-Star break, the Rockies’ bullpen has been good. Sure, sure, it’s a very small sample of 24 innings, but they’re tied for third in value (0.6 fWAR) and they’ve limited home runs while not strikeing out very many. Yes, a lot of this sample is against the Giants which — hey, would you look at that? They’re playing again! — could be meaningful late in the game. Rockies relievers didn’t allow a run in the last series!
Giants to watch
Blake Snell: His last start before the trade deadline, with many scouts expected to be in attendance. Now, that could also be for Colorado’s Ryan Feltner who’s pitching peripherals (46% groundball rate, 4.08 FIP) makes him like a very, very poor man’s Logan Webb, but Snell has looked great coming off his second IL stint with a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings and 15 strikeouts against just 5 walks.
Heliot Ramos: He was at .298/.365/.523 heading into the All-Star break, but then laid a 1-for-12 turd in Coors Field coming out of it and added to that an 0-for-4 in game 1 against the Dodgers this past series. But in the final 3 games of the series he was 6-for-14 and the last time he faced the Rockies in Oracle (May 17-19) he was 3-for-12 with a home run.
Tyler Fitzgerald: Yesterday, I wrote about how he’s the Giants’ not-so-secret weapon and the best position player they have going for them right now. Since the break, he’s been white hot: 9-for19 with 2 doubles, a triple, and 4 home runs. The Rockies aren’t a strikeout staff and even with his swing and miss, he’ll get pitches to hit. Can he take advantage and use his speed on the bases to really create opportunities?